Ralph Wiggum

Glenn hugging the icon model. We'll that certainly is a plot twist

I mean, if this is how we are rolling into mid February, I wouldnt complain. GEFS mean Feb 8:

Not sure that it means anything, but the freezing rain aspect is overperforming in the deep south

AI GFS is a bomb cyclone for the feb 1-2. So close to a big hit here but scoots NE just under the region grazing us. On to the operational gfs

Iirc I got 3" sleet down in Upper Darby when I lived there

Yet some never learn the NAM excels at seeing the warm tongue before other guidance and go into denial when it leads the way

This almost mirrors my FB call. Great minds think alike. Ppl that follow 2 days ago were asking why they should trust me regarding the changeover because the news isnt mentioning. Nobody is forced to trust anyone. The TV news is there for ratings and most FB 'forecasters' are there for clicks. I dont even know what clicks are nor how to make a profit nor do I care to. I put out calls as a service, but more for myself so I can go back and grade it after a storm. Anyway, good luck. I have my area at 4-7" before the flip.

I feel we are headed that way unfortunately. Bigger story with this will be the icing/sleet and not the snow.

FV3 ticked N with the mixing. A little less white a little more ice. Scary thing is there is still 24 hrs to go this could continue to trend worse. This is turning into a major ice situation for SE PA now?

NAM says mix line might get to NY border. Keeps plowing N. Writing is on the wall with this one. Mainly a sLeet/icing event much of SE PA after a 4-hr thump.

6" is reasonable for our location. Seeing alot of posts here and FB on how we won't see less than 12" because this is a 16 hr storm. People are forgetting only about 4-5 hours of it is actually clean snow for our areas (7am-noon?). Past 12 hrs the trend now is a quicker flip as the warm tongue screams N and W. Just hoping this isnt it and 2 weeks of cold/dry -> spring.

6z euro caved with mixing up to i80. Thinking 4-8" here is a good bet topped with sleet.

Finally. Mix up into the LV.

Initial thump colder and heavier precip

CMC much colder. Big thumper

Watch, the gfs at the last minute will blast the sleet line farther north than any other guidance. It would be typical of this model.

Changeover up here looks to happen between 1 and 3PM Sunday. Roughly 5-7" on the ground prior to any change.

About 4" in Warminster fwiw

If it makes you feel better, here's the most biased cold model the fv3, often wrong, seldom right. A big hit!

2007 will be put to shame in many areas.

You get the idea. Dont be so literal.

Its over south of i78. Avg 4-6 nickel and dimer....though the sleet will make it seem like a MECS

Is this even a question? If Vegas had odds most of us would be rich.

I'll accept it