Ralph Wiggum

3k is having none of that

Wait did we just get NAM'd??

18z gfs says march coming in like a lion. March 2 and March 4 respectively. What could go wrong?

This was always an 'almost' all or nothing event. Anytime you try and work the tpv into the flow south of the Canadian Border and potentially a phase you run the risk. We walked the razors edge between a high-end mecs and a weakish wave/late bloomer. Unfortunately, the latter looks to prevail.

Whenever I see -epo forecast my first thoughts go to cold and no big storms. That's your nickel and dime teleconnection in general. As you said, give me an organic +PNA and a -AO. Nao phase isn't quite as relevant as many folks think wrt snowstorms here. It can snow in either phase. A -nao will tend to slow a storm down for sure tho. In short, I'm a firm believer PAC>ATL

This ^^^

The thing with this storm which was mentioned ad nauseum was the delicate balance between the tpv (or lobe of tpv) and the stj wave and how they might interact. This is why I go all march 2001 whenever I see that feature trying to get involved because a miniscule adjustment wrt the timing and Interaction of those features spells massive differences at the surface. That's why you hear me say we are looking at an all or nothing situation. This is the risk we run when getting the tpv involved. But with that said, the potential for a much larger storm exists as well. It's like playing the tables at a casino. You likely won't hit the jackpot unless you go big (involving the tpv)....and 99% of the time you ain't hitting....but that's the risk you take if you want a chance to win big. Or we can play conservative penny slots like we did all winter. All you're gonna win are nickels and dimes.

In the overall scheme of things, I'm not so sure this was an 'epic model failure' as some folks are declaring. We are still 3 days from this storm, and the trend to make.it a non-event started over 2 days ago. That's a 5-day lead that this wasn't likely going to work for us here. I think alot.of folks saw those mecs runs last week and locked into them assuming it was a guarantee. In my defense, I pointed out numerous times last week how this had march 2001 similarities ONLY WRT the TPV lobe getting involved and also noted how that variable tends to be misconstrued by guidance at that range and urged caution. Of course I got thown to the wolves for dare thinking such a thing. But I did join the party hoping we could salvage this. Unfortunately it was too late into the game and the writing was on the wall. Said it before will say it again....I do not care if every favorable teleconnection is screaming HECS 14+ days out. We can always get an epic pattern but getting said pattern to produce requires miraculous intervention.

The trend we r waiting for is on the gfs....spring pattern appearing.

12k nam ticked nw....has light snow back into extreme S NJ now lol

When they figure our avg seasonal snowfall, I wonder how that is determined? Is that a rolling 100-year avg? Does that avg get recalculated on a decadal basis? Would be genuinely interested in knowing.

That's what I'm talking about Paul. Change is change, it's always cyclical. But you seemed to have been offended almost to the point of veering off into some political argument. The factual statistical less snow phase the last 9 years was and is not about that nor any agenda my friend. These are facts.

So you can agree then the the clime past 9 years has changed since we are in a less snowy phase? And it will change again when we hit a more snowy phase?

That's all well and good. I'm not totally disappointed as we did have around 12 separate snow events. But this wasn't an A or a B grade winter. We had 3 good months of BN and could have done bette. But i also realize colder doesnt mean snowier...often with that we end up with better snows south of us. Also knew a Nina wasn't likely to produce. Again, just stating the obvious facts. Maybe next year if we can be neutral enso or weak nino.

And just to add, if you want to cherry pick for an agenda, the last 10 years have been one of the least snowiest 10-year periods since we've kept records. Yes there were other 10-year periods that averaged less, but im just telling you again, we are finishing BN for the season more than likely and it has been common recently. That was the statement then you seem to have taken it to some other level not sure what nerve I hit with ya bud.

Fact is as I stated we will end up BN snowfall avg for the season yet again. Take the blind science goggles off Paul.

NAM is running. Let's do this.

Far from a whine fest. We understand the reality. We are all laughing and having a good joke and a fun time. You should try it.

That's a silly question and if you haven't already gone, then you're late to the party

Current view since we r doing obs here

Watching a home movie of feb 12, 2006 snowstorm. Good vibes. That one has a spectacular vis satellite that morning with an eye to the slp.

Lemme hit that pen bro, we got this.

Take your Debbie downer attitude to "the other thread" please. We'll see who's standing once the chips fall.

I support this mother fucking thread!!! Let's do this!

My grade is a C- Green bursts in the sky attm. Transformers blowing??