Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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They are stoked for the Cape storm, not the one on the 15th fwiw
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So 18+ hours of snow including deform banding from a 993mb low and only .5"?
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Something not adding up with those totals unless mixing is an issue.
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Surface maps on tt looked so much better. Didnt expect <1" most. Wth.
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Location dependent. Coast hugger and slow crawl, we all get some deformation banding. Farther N does better.
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Euro ai was pretty nice
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Need to see some semblance of a system on the ensembles means. There is hardly a reflection at all.right now, and thats odd with some of the deterministic guidance showing a decent storm. That in and of itself tells me this storm on the 15th likely won't be a huge deal here. Guess there's time for that to change but we need big changes with the 0z suite imho wrt the ens support. -
That looks delicious! The porter im drinking is avg. Icarus has some really good stuff for sure. Im on beer advocate under maltbeard01 fwiw.
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January 25, 2000. Modeling has improved significantly since then. The odds of a bust of both of those magnitudes today is much lower.
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So still a SECS. No scoffing at this. Isn't high-end MECS but we got time and i will never turn my nose up to SECS....ever.
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More interaction with the vortex over SE Quebec province. That thing needs to gtfoh.
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I see some 'stuff' already this run but imma let Randy do his thing and bring us home.
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114 I edited it. Typo on my part
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Scoots by both our subs to the North on its way to hit New England.
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Pretty close by 114. Close enough that its on the same playing field still. This run an ass hair delayed in developing, just slower imo (eta) which doesnt help us down this way.
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I know. Im just having fun with it since someone posted how improper it was to use that term. Its a hobby board and yes 100% more user friendly.
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Go play in a puddle for a few hours.
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Wave spacing
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Closing off in the OV? Let's capture this bish and vertically stack it. Lfg.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Its a tough somehwat complicated setup, thus why im not really biting just yet. I mean, the pv located east of Nunavut in N Quebec province has a sw pinwheeling around the rear quadrant and we are pinning our hopes on this diving almost due S or even Southwest and being timed just right for a phase. There is a little wiggle room and this isnt necessarily threading a fine needle, but if we are going to score a MECS out of this, alot has to go just right. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
And in perfect timing the new 12z gefs now have a cluster of lows in the vicinity. From nothing to this in 1 run....might be getting closer to having something here. 6z top vs 12z bottom
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Really only a handful of the usual suspects tbh.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
I apologize, I was talking about the individual members, not the means. Not a whole lot of support with them. -
I dunno. This may be moving away from the previous looks of an overunning thing with stj involved and turn into mostly NS based Ala my post about the Manitoba Mauler look. Neither is a monster storm look but both solutions are pretty standard ways we can cash in with a 3-5ish type thing. Guess we get the next 2 systems out the way and see which form it decides to take.
