Ralph Wiggum

Only posting it because there's not much going on next week or so. But op at range has a CPF showing up and stj getting active. Let's see what the gefs has to say shortly:

Sounds like a hot take we shouldn't ignore

Maybe that system on the 15th can move into the 50/50 for a followup wave.

That was so close. Southern energy, cold nearby, phasing. Looks like something behind it possibly. Clearly not a winter cancel run. Just for the winter is over crew, I'll drop this here

If you could live thru the Blizzard of 66 KU storm knowing the end result, would you stay at your home base and enjoy a classic KU snowstorm or would you travel to Oswego and endure the 8.5' of LES? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_blizzard_of_1966

Was loading up a jaws at the end too. Nice run. Step back from the ledge my friends! Eta: waiting for someone to chime in and overanalyze hr 384 on the ai and remind me the hp is pulling away and how we lose in that setup

The only ones cliff diving are the folks that set their expectations higher than a cliff thus the jump. Fact is, neither of our respective regions are notoriously snowy, so expectations always need to remain tempered. Ive grown to assume every winter will be AN temps wall-to-wall with either a drought or zero snowfall. Haven't been disappointed in years.

For anyone that wants to play along (disclaimer: i truly hate dissecting model data in the long range but for the sake of the sanity of some members...) .....this 500mb chart depicts a weak trof in the West and a flattened SER. Im not going to repeat what @CAPEand I have discussed repeatedly the past 3 or 4 days. Just because you see blue out west and red in the east does not spell disaster. Top map is the 500mb chart at 366, below that are the 2m and 850 temps respectively.

If those are going to be the ground rules then AI can just create the threads. Scary to think that's where forecasting might be headed. The days of humans making the calls will be a thing of the past someday probably. I hope not, but you can kind of see the beginnings of that now. Heck, some of the weather apps just use the GFS output and an AI system fills in the forecast and sends it to the app.

Jan 2016 storm I think I started a week out. That was a well-modeled storm.

Take it easy on a guy,would ya? 500mg gummy got me trippin balls

Warm front essentially

Yeah, but that little 998 acts like a kicker to keep things moving and us on the right side of the gradient. But yeah, your map is nicer.

Euro has snow showers around overnight and again Monday AM.

And the Euro has a really.nice hit jan 13

Love this setup. Classic boundary SWFE sorta thing without diving deep into the 500mb maps. Hey @CAPEdoesnt this look like what we were discussing?

Didnt he just cancel winter for the 3rd time a mere 2 days ago?

This is some torch we are in. Being sarcastic obviously, but remember when guidance had Dec 24-Jan 10 as a total torch job? Now it even appears the real moderation period that is coming next week will be muted and short-lived with seasonal cold returning by later next weekend.

That's the week I took off for my 'stay'cation a couple months back, so LFG!

I realize im breaking my own rules looking ahead, but to keep the jumpers from jumping, the CFS establishes a decent quasi CPF by mid-month thru early Feb. EPO ridging and a flattened SER.

Its usually there all season but most notably in Feb. That also doesn't necessarily mean 100% the SER will pump the entire month either. Could it? Sure. But given the Dec up top pattern, I think there will be more of a resistance from the NAO and PV. Those early season looks tend to show up throughout the season.

The SER is part of the base state we are dealing with this winter. It is a function of the La Nina and fits Nina climo. The key is cashing in when there are windows when it gets squashed or acting as a flat ridge / gradient. It was a certainty the SER would pump at times this season. Eta: so with that said, step back from the ledge. Winter is not canceled, winter is not over. We've been frozen, give or take a couple days, since late November. Consider the relax in the pattern our annual January thaw. Seems like a pretty average winter thus far, no complaints.

Just a January thaw. We've been in a freeze since right after Thanksgiving. Its going to be ok...winter will return. Just look ahead at 5 days max dont get caught up in 2 weeks out. Enjoy the reload period.

Flurries and 24F. Deep winter. Great mid season winter vibes, cold, flurries, gray.

I deleted my post. I dont want to be drawn into this. Yes, we r good you are my brother from way back.