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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Ditto. ICON, Euro, and GFS have been off and on with this one. Going to depend on how the gradient plays out and how much energy ejects out of the West, if it is consolidated or sheared, NS CAA push, and timing of said boundaries/waves. But that's like every system...always dependent on the preceding system.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    But didn't the Ukie nail that one storm way back in 1782?
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Heavy rain changing to ice...because that scenario always pans out. But it is King GFS so yeah. Seriously tho....it would be funny now that the Ukie and others lost it if the GFS somehow leads the way with this one.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    6z GFS pressed the wave South for this week then has the late weekend system as well then has like 2 or 3 other frozen events this run. Here are Thurs-Fri totals fwiw. Low confidence in this one happening but posting it for discussion:
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Bet ya can't spot the gradient/boundary:
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Timing diffs, not a huge surprise at range. Looks like we have a very brief 'relax'/gradient pattern thru Thurs-Friday then we go right back into an active/trackable pattern. Works for me....reload it.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Noted. Thanks for the pbp Randy
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Uh oh we don't want a full phase in the West
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    I dont agree with how the Ukie is combining the 2 waves into one solid frozen event, so color me skeptical. 2 separate waves would work though as I've been alluding to if we sacrifice the Thursday-Friday system and the trailing energy moves thru Saturday-Sunday with smaller bandwidth between the systems.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    I know, NAM at 84....but also has the trailing wave out in New Mexico much like other guidance that moves it thru next weekend with wintry precip. So looks like warm sector midweek. Then cold front passage with rain Thursday ish. Then we look to the weekend with fresh cold air source in place and disturbances moving thru. The pattern 'relax' looks extremely short-lived.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Dont sleep on the late week threat. Euro is a frozen mixed mess and the Ukie is a SECS/MECS.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    18z gefs took a step back for the late week slop. But hangs a piece of stj energy back and moves that thru late in the weekend. That could work if the first system fails Thurs/Fri with the shorter wavelength now being depicted between systems. 18z gfs was a nice active look from start to finish.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    While I completely agree about being gradient driven, we have gone in 2 days from a complete cutter up thru the Great Lakes to a decent wave tracking thru PA, to now a wave tracking under us. Definitely wouldn't call it flooding rains at this point. Heck if the trend co tines it could be squashed down in VA and NC. Just something to watch for now but seeing those moves over the last couple days one has to wonder if this is going to have some tricks up the sleeve.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Trackable
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro honking for later in the week. When within 84 hrs I'll tag you in a post. Eta: CMC with the strong arctic HP anchored over the Northeast and precip punching in....also on board
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Tapering down now after that heavy burst. Off to work. Looking forward to seeing totals later!
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    That is the upper level energy rolling thru. Rounding base of trough.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Still snowing heaviest of the morning here. 19F. Snow total above not final yet.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Measured 5" in addition to the 1.5" yesterday puts Warminster at 6.5" for this one so far.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Pretty nice stuff moving thru right now. Hopefully it can backbuild.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Yet to come. Probably overdone....especially kucera. The lower map of snow depth factors in modeled temps for ratios and might be closer. I find still cutting another quarter off of that is closest to reality most often. So if snow depth was showing 8" here probably closer to 6". Just my personal experience with the RAP.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    RAP continues to increase totals in far E PA and NJ: NON kucera:
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    0z even better wow: Non-kuchera:
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Not bad...Eastern Bucks to NE PHL inching closer to that heavy banding:
  25. Ralph Wiggum
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