Ralph Wiggum

Euro took a healthier system a jump N.

CRAS also came NW fwiw...probably not much

Euro

NAVGEM is a hit. Nice jump NW.

GEFS went a hair more progressive and clustering is tightening to just inside the outer banks with not as many NW leaners as 6z. Precip on NW edge tightened to the SE.

Trend was a solid bump N....

Thanks Ant.

I'm not so sure about that. MJO hasn't been a key driver this year like the last 2. The -NAM has been the key persistent driver with HL blocking being very stable and has bucked most Nina looks thus far not allowing the SE ridge to establish for extended periods. I mean, if the HL ridging is ever going to link up with the SE ridge and establish a mid/full lat persistent feature, mid Feb and onward would be the time. However, flopping of guidance tells me the 2nd SWE from mid Jan is beginning to show up at the trop with more HL blocking and guidance is struggling with that. Ironically we have just had our 3rd SWE of the season so we may enter another favorable period late month. For now, I'm siding with the seasonal trend and saying no major PV blasts, seasonal cold, and transient SE ridge with persistent HL blocking which would work for us as we r in prime climo. Im certainly not punting because of the MJO forecast.

I stick by my original thoughts that for SE PA (most of this subforum) we are trying to thread a needle. It can happen, I'm not saying it can't. Just will be tough. Antecedent airmass is stale. If streams stay separate but the sw is strong and is north enough to spread precip, frozen will be confined N and W. A phase (which doesn't look likely until past our lat) would pump ridging out ahead in an already marginal airmass. And if the sw if flat and weak it either slides south or is a light event. Curiously, the ens members do have some better solution but they favor N and W. If we all want to cash in we want a medium strength sw that slides just under the region for a lightish event. Today's runs will be interesting.

Why do the Euro/EPS/CMC/GEPS want nothing to do with this? Para GFS was a couple NW ticks away from a SECS/MECS. Interesting.

Excited for this week. Super Bowl SECS then the Great Valentine's Day Wentzadelphia 96 Blizzard Redux!! Buckle up!

N tick trend working here for you guys.

Quick mover. Just a SECS. Pass.

Hour 72 of snow here. Out in Blue Bell at work. Steadiest snow of the day...light fresh coating. 31F. Impressive system.

But 6z bro Yeah, I'm not seeing this one being a thing either attm

We need snowfall % maps. WW is slacking.

Pretty big jump there. Eta: just guessing without seeing h5 but that shows how much of a thread the needle this one is. A phase or partial (12z) and it is an inside runner. Missed phase (18z) and it slides ots quickly.

Without hp holding with confluence in place that will probably be a thump to mix scenario at best. The cold antecedent airmass is stale at that point, so unless we get phasing or start seeing better confluence to help nose that HP over across the GL and funnel it into the region, we are dealing with a marginal airmass by that time. Of course this system also is progged to usher in arctic air behind it. So if phasing occurs and is timed properly, maybe we get a euro look from 0z and 12z yesterday. Guess that is still possible but again the look right now seems to favor a quick moving mix or thump to mix IF the ull looks on the icon and euro are to be believed.

Looking back at those 4 images I posted, could we get any more of an exact slp placement between those 2 systems? I mean, seriously. I didnt even see how close they were when I cut and pasted them.

TY so much for that link. I really enjoy reading this type of material directly from the scientist/meteorologist responsible for these classifications and studies.

96 wasn't a pure Miller A then, correct? From my reading the 'A' has more to do with the storm tracking far deep South (haven't found mention of a direct GOM connection) and emerging off the Carolina Coast without redevelopment of slp. The Miller B research on the weatherworksinc site says the defining characteristic is a surface low in the Midwest , OV, Tenn Valley that transfers/redevelops off the Mid Atl coast. 96 had the GOM interaction which meets A criteria but ALSO got into the Tenn Valley before redeveloping off the Mid Atl Coast which meets Miller B criteria. I believe contrary to several folks that 96 was in fact a hybrid. Interestingly enough, the 18z ICON has some similarities to the slp development of the 96 storm, tho not even close at h5 so no I am not comparing. Just trying to determine Miller status. It is a very interesting topic

Closer to inside the outer banks at the surface actually. Farthest S lat it gets is Montgomery, AL before headed NE towards the Tenn Valley. So no real GOM interaction as you noted. Pure Miller B it is? Matches the EPS mean in that regard which is Miller B as well. We don't get coast hugging Miller As often at all. They mostly just slide off the Carolina coast without the phase to draw them N it seems.

That looks like a Miller A, good call. Those can transfer or redevelop but im pretty certain the defining characteristic is it doesn't really enter the Midwest, OV, Tenn Valley to transfer. That storm u mentioned basically hugged the FL panhandle then jumped off the GA coast. So I would classify that as a straight Miller A and yeah, probably the last true one we've had. Rare for sure.

ICON transitioned to a hybrid miller a/b at the surface with clear characteristics of both with a definite southern draw before a move into the tenn Valley, triple point, then transfer off Carolina coast. When was the last pure Miller A? Serious question, we were discussing in another forum and nobody had a clear answer. Seems most are B or hybrid.

ICON has trended towards a Hybrid Miller A/B....has characteristics of both with slp coming out of Plains moving along the South then up into the Tennessee Valley before transferring off the Carolina Coast.