Ralph Wiggum

Euro is a hit!

CmC honking too. Going out with a bang.

12GFS absolute weenie run...wow

32F SN+ 2"

I love gradient overunning snows in Feb!! One of my faves for heavy thumps. Of course I only enjoy being on the colder side of the gradient.

Best banding definitely East over NJ. Congrats @The Iceman and others in Central NJ! Should easily see 5" lollis those parts.

Fatties falling

Gently falling light snow here. 1" and 33F

Back edge is already appearing on regional radar and banding has setup well e of where modeled. U r in a better spot for the 5" lollis. 1-3" here seem very reasonable.

Lowered totals to a general 1-3" slushfest with some 4-5" lollis in isolated areas for extreme SE PA and just on the other side of the Del River. Light snow and 35F here.

I would also feel more comfy if this was night and not happening during the day with the marginal BL.

It wouldn't be right if I didn't voice my concerns. No doubt per the mesos there will be insane f gen lifting and banding of precip in far SE PA and across the river into parts of NJ. However, as is evident on the mesos, BL temps are an issue going into this. Some areas are going to start as sleet or even plain rain (and likely struggle for a bit to flip). Now, most guidance suggests under the heavier banding that temps mix down to the BL and flip to snow quickly. My concern is what happens alongside the heavier banding? We usually see subsidence and lighter rates. That is a concern. Whatever spots fall under subsidence and don't get into the heavier banding are going to struggle to accumulate. I wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated spots only seeing a slushy inch or so where 10 miles away they have 5"+ of paste. Going to be interesting to watch unfold, but I think those concerns are legit going in. Someone is going to get screwed while up the road the get a golden shovel. Keep your expectations low for this one and hope for the best lift to occur over your house.

6z HerpesDerpster

Looks like we have to watch Tuesday Feb 9th for a light threat. BL temps marginal. Most guidance showing precip centered over LV. Then there is a SECS potential brewing for Thursday. I think the Wentzadelphia system is still there next weekend but the look has degraded quite a bit in recent runs. Active tracking nonetheless.

RGEM ticked NW and EPS looks better for SE PA. 3-6" is looking good. Maybe some lollis of 8" in the best banding just to the NW of I95.

Setting yourself up for another bust thread I see. Im j/k and I hope you're close to accurate, I would gladly take. Those numbers will be tough however with the system racing thru the region. GL

@Franklin0529 this is not tucked into DE. That is a perfect track I95 N and W. Not saying it can't continue to trend NW but I think I95 N and W is in a good spot right now.

With i95 the r/s line. Models have shifted NW yet the fall line continues to be our #1 climo metric with this/these type systems. And fyi the icon is NOT over Delaware it never touches land or even that close tbh once it is N of NC/VA border

Mesos showing sleet and mix to start right along i95 before rates flip to snow. Different setup, but what did we learn last week about models showing sleet?? Takes longer than modeled to change to snow and may track farther NW than progged based on 700 low placement and orientation. Especially with BL marginal to start, is anyone concerned precip will be wasted along i95 for a chunk Sunday morning?

3k is inside the coast for a period but clearly shows the I95 r/s line. Quite a pasting!

Borrowed from the Mid Atl sub, 18z euro is a nice hit and shows why even tho I think climo says I95 r/s line there is enough guidance still suggesting that central and southern NJ is very much still in the game:

Not sure if this was noted, but Winter Storm Watches have been posted for a good chunk of the region: " Action Recommended Make preparations per the instructions Issued By Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service Affected Area Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware Description ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 5 inches possible. WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware. WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in overnight Saturday night from southwest to northeast and may fall heavy for a time into Sunday morning before winding down from west to east by the mid to late afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation."

Noted....adding to the list ty Iirc, isnt that close to Thai red with addition of peanuts? I might be thinking of something different.

Asian food makes me hungry like 30 mins after eating. When the buffets used to be open I swear I could scarf 5 plates and half hour after leaving be hungry again.