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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    I honestly wouldn't be surprised. And while models are waffling all over the place next week, this could be our last clean flush hit for the region for a while. Enjoy every single flake.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro ticked N finally has accumulating snow here. With everything still ticking N this feels like one of those surprises coming where guidance is shifting N right up to the start and never really depicts the true N adjustments until it is snowing outside. Not going to be a massive system by any means but I can see areas that have been getting shafted ( @Animal) getting a nice treat here.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Mesos starting to wake up:
  4. Ralph Wiggum
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Wrong thread but a low is about to pop near Hatteras. Im loving the trend and look of this weekend threat across guidance!
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    NAM is going to tease towards end of run....
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    2nd wave ticked N again. Snow almost to the MD/PA border this run. I'd be thrilled with mood flakes from that wave 2...which the NAM says is out by Friday morning.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Not the worst snowmap I've ever seen. Heck, we would have killed for this the past few years.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    I'm going to guess Thursday ends up a general 1-3"/2-4" event with less North more South rule. Will be a nice snowpack refresh for some. Still not quite sure what to think of the Friday wave. Doesn't seem it wants to amp and overspread the region but we should have a better idea by 12z-18z tomorrow.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    NAM bumped N again. Euro is alone riding this one out it appears. Maybe its right tho, who knows. I do know the NAM is in its wheelhouse now....the Euro nasomuch
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    I want to add also, there are so many moving parts right now models are going to struggle hammering down specific threats inside of 5 days. I know this has been beaten to death but it is legit. As fast as they lose a good look, they have been bringing it back....and vice versa. This has been a decent winter that isn't ending anytime soon. Keep optimistic!
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    I thought just the opposite. Plenty of chances with the pv lurking unless you are looking for clean flush hits. Then maybe phl proper will have issues.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Rgem tho
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Lots of threats and chances being thrown at us next 2 weeks. Looks like a minor 1 for 2 event(s) Thursday and Friday. Sunday looking like the VD sleet storm from 2007(?). Then early next week looks threatening. Need to cash in on at least 1 of these the next few weeks.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Was going to post this in banter, but some good model porn at LR. 967mb just SE of Cape May. We take.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    You should see the JMA
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro is sniffing something early next week. Could be glue, not sure.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    12z JMA is insane from Sat PM thru Tuesday night. We living in a glacier!
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    12k NAM tick N again. Another 'slight' improvement. Still 36-48 hrs to adjust. Eta: both waves adjusted N wave 2 Friday misses tho just to our S but close
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro is almost all by itself right now. Even the eps don't agree. We've seen this many times recently at this same exact range. Chances are good it comes N at 12z.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    6z suite all ticked N with wave 1 but light precip. Wave 2 light precip. Sunday mix to rain.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Snow maps are meh. Given temps in the 20s and the surface maps qpf depiction, expected better than 1-3" but we take.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS didn't make the move this run but is colder and while it cuts precip off N shield, the snow right along the PA/MD border looks juicier.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS seeing some strengthening in the same region. Nothing massive but probably just enough that we can get in on the snows Thursday.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    You can see why the ICON came N if you compare the SE ridge run over run. Imo even tho the icon isn't the best guidance, as a global model it is likely seeing the SER flex more than the mesos. At least on the broader scale as opposed to micro, that change might carry weight if we see other globals signal the same.
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