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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    So helps us all if the deep south gets clobbered again while we smoke cirrus. This board would self-destruct.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Plus with Chuck's raging +NAO there isn't anything to suppress so that will come N and W
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Isnt there another thread for tracking mud season?
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    "Gobbler's Knob" always makes me blush
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    EPS long range is drool-worthy. Next 12 days(ish) would be a bonus.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Source: he said so
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Funny how the gfs op is a weenie run during the 'mild' reload stretch then looks to relax when we are supposed to enter our best pattern. Interesting how this stuff works sometimes.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC looks like 1 impulse and a significant ice/sleet storm for the LV Wed-Thurs.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS still hellbent on a wintry storm midweek. Showing 2 separate impules...a weak one Wednesday as mostly scattered snow showers or light snow (icon on board and cmc slowwwwly trending) then has a significant ice/sleet storm Wednesday overnight into a good chunk of Thursday. Nice CAD signal depicted for a global model. Pretty Interesting 'mild' stretch. We take.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Incoming on the gfs for the Feb 12 thing. Sprawling hp up top.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Yep, right next to 'go with the snowiest model'...page 1 of the weenie handbook.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Thank you @mitchnick Looks like a transient -PNA during the reload with signs of ridging in the PNA region rolling forward. SER gets predictably squashed. Seasonal trends rule?
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Agreed, mid-month onward likely best chances setting up for an actual secs/mecs tracking window. Great explanation of the progression as usual.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    None of these appear to be clean flush hits. Heck, none of these may even have frozen when it happens. But if this is our 'mild' period and we are potentially tracking, that isnt a bad thing. I recall a few folks saying be careful in this pattern with all these waves and cold air lurking nearby as something could pop in the short range?
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    I want whatever half this forum is smoking. Bone dry? No snow next 15 days? GFS alone has 4 waves between Feb 5 and Feb 14 and each has frozen for at least parts of this sub.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    @stormtracker, you got this?
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS op has actually been most consistent with the feb 5 mix thump thing tbh
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Feel it is wise to focus on short and medium range and not too much on"looks rainy for 3 weeks" type guessing. Models are really jumpy right now next 7 days but the gfs op continues to be rock solid with a mixed thump next Wednesday going to rain Thursday (maybe) before slotting. Then looks very active after.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS is hellbent on a wintry mix here next Wednesday into Thursday
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Totally agree. We would need a series of events to collapse for that scenario to actually happen. The pac jet retraction, the scandi ridging, the mjo progression...even the swe all are in favor of a return to some form of 'deep winter' as we advance thru Feb.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Just want to note, the SER has been kicked down time and time again this season, so we do have that going for us. With all the other tellies signaling a decent -ao/-nao mid Feb forward, I think the scenario I mentioned is slim. Just presenting a different perspective of the scenario possibilities here.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Be careful here, that NAO if not timed just right is going to link up with the Nina-bulging SER into a full lat ridge. I'm not suggesting this happens but it isnt uncommon as we enter the backend of winter in Nina patterns. We need the NAO to remain separate, even flex and close off. If those 2 features should link up, it's probably game over.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    We are definitely in a lull/reload when we are debating teleconnections 15+ days out. Watch something sneak up now mid range and the warmup get muted.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Coastal plain. Yeah. But you didn't mention that in your op
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    March 13, 1993 March 1958
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