Ralph Wiggum

0z NAM much colder for Tuesday. Low pressure tracks into the Tenn Valley then jumps the coast. Close to a mostly frozen event now.

Setting up a bigger Thursday system. Its not going to be that mild as the RGEM.

NAM is on the extreme end of guidance with the warmth. I dont see it this go around.

NAM has been crushing it lately.

Model mayhem. Wonder which of these waves/threats ends up the surprise.

I think temps will be .lower than progged ie marginal areas such as ours may remain quite cold at the surface. The question really is how much precip. Wont take much.

Which model would handle the current snowpack's effect on 10m temps best? The 3k NAM? Or does no model account for that?

Euro is 12 hrs of ice accretion SE PA and part of central NJ from 1pm tomorrow thru Sunday sunrise with freezing drizzle still falling at that time.

Keep in mind, I know up my way there is still a solid and sometimes deep snowpack that is still fresh (snow on snow on snow). This is massive insulation at the ground and could make all the difference when talking a matter of 1 or 2 degrees at the surface and time need to scour out the colder surface. It certainly isn't melting much today. 27F

I'm not sure how widespread the more significant icing will be in this region, but where there is will be a smaller geographical stripe of pure ice during this fz drizzle and light fz showers it will certainly be quote impacted. Could easily see a stripe of .3" or slightly more accretion in the region. Looks bad for areas just SW of our region also. As others have said, this could certainly come as a surprise to some when they wake up Sunday AM and look outside.

HRRR is a bad ice storm for tomorrow PM if it is to be believed. Shows .1"-.25" ice accretion here

What looked like a lock for a cutter is now being modeled differently on guidance with the NAO not really relaxing. Heather A system for Tuesday now in jeopardy. Model mayhem to the extreme. GFS has 1994ish ice storm while other guidance says cold rain early week. I know I am mish-moshing the systems here in this post/thread but the uncertainty is extremely high for this period

Was a big ticket snow event topped with ice for Thurs-Fri. Honestly not sure what to trust at this point. Monday was originally supposed to be the coldest day of the winter in 4 years and now looks like the mildest day of the week (if you consider mid 30s mild). Topsy-turvy week ahead.

Same. Call me sick and twisted but aside from the damage and disruptions that was the most beautiful and surreal environment I've ever seen this area transformed into.

Don't do it....it isnt the same King it once was.

Do you ever mist it lightly on a cold night to get a small crust on there to try and extend the life?

Under 5 days now and another storm threat. Guidance moving towards more of a coastal system for this period that travels from the GOM into the Tenn/Ohio Valley area then redevlops off the Mid Atl Coast. Miller A/B hybrid. NAO and AO are moving into neutral and is a classic Archambault storm. Mixed signals on precip type for now but some form of frozen is clearly looking likely. Discuss here.

33" on the nose here in Ivyland.

I'm going to reiterate what I said yesterday. I am more concerned that if we fail Tuesday it will be due to suppression or the system being squashed under the PV than rain and a cutter. Actually wouldn't mind a lightish event while the Mid Atlantic gets hammered. They are running out of time and beyond due.

GEPS and GEFS both have a 50/50 signal in place on their means from Day 9 til the end of their runs. Thats pretty good agreement on a smoothed means from 2 pieces of guidance at range.

I wonder if the landscape contractor was instructed to do this specifically or if he is just a die-hard weenie. Maybe it's @KamuSnow himself? Hmmm

Where has Heisy been? This was/is his storm. Maybe he knows something we don't? Or maybe he has tracking fatigue?

Its cool to see the HL pattern that was in place back in late Oct/early Nov popping up again on the ens means as we get later into winter. When I posted my winter thoughts back then I stated a huge key to the success of this winter is how the Scandinavian ridging feeds the NAO ridge or if it remains over in Scandinavia with no effect. It was evident at that time we had a higher chance than normal at getting sustained HL blocking in the AO/NAO regions as Scandinavia is a normalized area that tends to feed the NAO as a retogression. Just cool to see how firm that ridging remained as a background state, how it played out, and how we are seeing it showing up again late season. March could be a roller coaster ride this year with at least one chance for a March winter storm, if not more. What a season.

Looks like after our Heather A event Tuesday the pattern reloads with a cutter late week (that one is probably real with the HL blocking reloading) then the next big longwave threat with the pattern back in place is being signaled Feb 24-28. But let's get thru Sat-Sun then Tues first. Who knows, maybe the reload is faster or even just a mirage/head fake.

The old "We Are Due" index was high. That index in DC region is off the charts. When they do finally get it, the results will be worth the wait.