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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Para gfs and euro and big ticket ice events just N and W. Likely extreme outliers tho but take note anyway. Elephant in the room is the PV lurking. Add icon to the mild list....also considered the new king by many.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS para looks closer to euro. Epic icing Tuesday just N and W. Frozen Thursday then a brief 12 hr warmup before polar front presses thru. More frozen in the LR.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    So do we go with the Euro has been crud lately theory and ignore it? Or does it have support with the seasonal trend to turn cutters into coastals?
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Yet the Euro has barely a drop of non-frozen the entire run for most of PA and temps well BN. Euro mostly all snow the same period where the GFS is 60 and rain. One will fail terribly.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON is colder. Light rain to fzra and sleet overnight Sunday into early Monday AM with that rogue wave.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    It will almost undoubtedly get into the mid 30s at points during this extended wave train. I never bought into those extreme looks the NAM was showing though. You cant drive a low into Lake Erie with a molasses HP, nao ridging, and the PV sitting there. No place for that surface low to go but under us on Tuesday. Temps will be close but not a full blown warm flooding rainstorm. Probably trends back to a significant icing event tbh.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    0z NAM much colder for Tuesday. Low pressure tracks into the Tenn Valley then jumps the coast. Close to a mostly frozen event now.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Setting up a bigger Thursday system. Its not going to be that mild as the RGEM.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    NAM is on the extreme end of guidance with the warmth. I dont see it this go around.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    NAM has been crushing it lately.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Model mayhem. Wonder which of these waves/threats ends up the surprise.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    I think temps will be .lower than progged ie marginal areas such as ours may remain quite cold at the surface. The question really is how much precip. Wont take much.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Which model would handle the current snowpack's effect on 10m temps best? The 3k NAM? Or does no model account for that?
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro is 12 hrs of ice accretion SE PA and part of central NJ from 1pm tomorrow thru Sunday sunrise with freezing drizzle still falling at that time.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Keep in mind, I know up my way there is still a solid and sometimes deep snowpack that is still fresh (snow on snow on snow). This is massive insulation at the ground and could make all the difference when talking a matter of 1 or 2 degrees at the surface and time need to scour out the colder surface. It certainly isn't melting much today. 27F
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    I'm not sure how widespread the more significant icing will be in this region, but where there is will be a smaller geographical stripe of pure ice during this fz drizzle and light fz showers it will certainly be quote impacted. Could easily see a stripe of .3" or slightly more accretion in the region. Looks bad for areas just SW of our region also. As others have said, this could certainly come as a surprise to some when they wake up Sunday AM and look outside.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    HRRR is a bad ice storm for tomorrow PM if it is to be believed. Shows .1"-.25" ice accretion here
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    What looked like a lock for a cutter is now being modeled differently on guidance with the NAO not really relaxing. Heather A system for Tuesday now in jeopardy. Model mayhem to the extreme. GFS has 1994ish ice storm while other guidance says cold rain early week. I know I am mish-moshing the systems here in this post/thread but the uncertainty is extremely high for this period
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Was a big ticket snow event topped with ice for Thurs-Fri. Honestly not sure what to trust at this point. Monday was originally supposed to be the coldest day of the winter in 4 years and now looks like the mildest day of the week (if you consider mid 30s mild). Topsy-turvy week ahead.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Same. Call me sick and twisted but aside from the damage and disruptions that was the most beautiful and surreal environment I've ever seen this area transformed into.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Don't do it....it isnt the same King it once was.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Do you ever mist it lightly on a cold night to get a small crust on there to try and extend the life?
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Under 5 days now and another storm threat. Guidance moving towards more of a coastal system for this period that travels from the GOM into the Tenn/Ohio Valley area then redevlops off the Mid Atl Coast. Miller A/B hybrid. NAO and AO are moving into neutral and is a classic Archambault storm. Mixed signals on precip type for now but some form of frozen is clearly looking likely. Discuss here.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    33" on the nose here in Ivyland.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    I'm going to reiterate what I said yesterday. I am more concerned that if we fail Tuesday it will be due to suppression or the system being squashed under the PV than rain and a cutter. Actually wouldn't mind a lightish event while the Mid Atlantic gets hammered. They are running out of time and beyond due.
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