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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    33 and drizzle
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    18z RGEM destroys se pa thurs. 98% frozen. Has the look I've been thinking...heavy thump, mix, dry slot. Ok, not total destruction but a sweet hit lol
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    The fact the euro is the southern outlier and given its less than stellar track record AND with the NAM being consistent with the sleet/ice look, we shouldn't write the NAM off nor the warmer solutions. It certainly has some merit in that solution.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    I honestly think this is a nice thump to mix to dry slot for most of us with rain/mixing in the usual.areas as this ticks back N. I could actually see the 12z rgem as a very realistic solution.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro is trash at this range this season. Euro H5 also screams Norther. Probably will honk long enough to suck the more southern forums in before jogging N in 48 hrs and giving us slop.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Almost a non-event now. But some people are already locking in Thursday. Ha!
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Same with the NAM.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    No doubt. Maybe we thump out 3-5" prior?
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS for Thursday
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    I think 202 basically divides upper and lower give or take a mile or so
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Rgem came in colder
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Agreed on Tuesday DAY....but Monday evening thru sunup Tuesday will be bad. The damage will be done. Especially N and W. Models coming in juicier also now.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Quite the turn of events now for Thursday. ICON is all frozen...brief thump but mostly ice...again.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    I would monitor the NWS forecasts. They are the professionals. I think the hobbyists here have stated the most obvious tho that there is growing concern N and W. Wait and see what the actual zone forecasts look like for your area is my suggestion. And as always better to be prepared than not.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    And that is the warmest of the mesos and driest with that first part. Definite concern growing N and W.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Making glaciers up here this week. Im beginning to wonder if the 3-6 hrs of rain the NAM is advertising early Tuesday will have much of a melt impact. I can see it just acting as a compactor before the deep freeze returns. Solid base for the thump to accumulate Thursday. Then maybe we can begin to see temps moderate again?
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Stronger Tuesday should make for a thumpier Thursday
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks like a 2-part system next 2 days. 1st part later tonight thru early Tuesday is a potentially significant icing event N and W of 95. On Tuesday a 2nd wave is going to punch some warmer air into the region with moderate to heavy rain. Then back in the freezer and we'll look to Wednesday PM and Thurs next.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    WRF mesos also colder and major icing. NAM ticked colder but has that 2ndary rogue batch of heavy rain.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    12z hrrr went even colder and is a fierce ice storm N and W of 95.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON has a nice thump before the rain Thursday.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Yet the hrrr is all frozen and went SE. Go figure.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Nasty out now. Freezing drizzle happening. 25F
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Once again, when all mesos juiced up the past 24 hrs the NAM scores another win with 24 hr lead time in drying things out in PA and shifting everything S and E. Need this to happen on the NAM 0z tomorrow start the trend.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Meh, storm trended well S and E last 24 hrs. Hardly anything happening. Would be amazing if we could get the same shift for the Tuesday system now.
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