Ralph Wiggum

So since things are going the wrong way for the Sunday/Monday system, are we still lined up to have a relentless parade of threats in a favorable pattern the 2nd half of January? Or are those looks fizzling out as well? Ens means look ok to me and the split out west and stj look active, but it has been silent here and want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting the progs.

One thing has become clear with this system....it will not be a flush clean hit for the big cities along i95....that much I think we can say with certainty at this point.

Ugly. Almost ever low is onshore now.

There is no way the GEFS doesn't start moving the other direction now. I would be very surprised if they didn't move W but we'll see.

Crapped the bed at 90

Better look. This is headed the right way.

Strongly agree. Almost Miller A looking way down there in TX with the LP.

Like Roger Smith just stated a few posts above....pretty much ignore the ICON (and JMA).

I see some posts people talking about red flags. Here's your red flag... when the NAVGEM is by itself and east, something is up. Just my $.02......I've seen this before.

Ocean storm still finds a way to screw.

Disagree. Resembles Jan 25, 2000. Snow to sleet, dry slot, wraparound snows. Can see something similar here.

6z gefs are head scratching. The Friday system on the means is closer than the Monday system. You would think compared to the ops that the days got reversed on the GEFS. GEFS want little to nothing to do with Monday:

Myself and the GFS are still bullish on that period centered around the 17th fwiw:

This Friday....shades of Jan 25, 2000

Friday there will be the big ocean storm moving into the Canadian maritime over the weekend. From there, we will basically see a 'threat' every other day until the pattern relaxes. And what i mean by that is there are many chaotic shortwaves moving thru the flow. The cool part is, the PJ and the STJ both look active.

I was thinking about that earlier. I feel like highs in the low 20s was a common thing....a few decades back.

Define whining please

We're in trouble aren't we? Just cut to the chase doc, and level with me.

Well, I still like the period centered around the 17th give or take a day. However, I will say it til I'm blue, this coming pattern is going to require a high amount of patience. Signs are that suppression will be an issue with the PV nosing down from Baffin Bay. We can score over the next 2 weeks, but more likely we will wait until the pattern relaxes. It is almost always like this. Pattern looks good, posters begin stating how we will enter a no-fail period, pattern turns out uneventful, guards lower, pattern begins to relax, SECS/MECS happens....not always, but more often than not.

Euro is an unmitigated dumpster fire. Of course day 10 always looks promising tho.

LMFAO! Who is freaking out? Patterns don't last forever....sometimes we score in epic patterns, other times we put up a goose egg. Personally, I would rather be in a mediocre pattern that isn't a shutout and take chances as they show up on guidance in the short range. Im not a huge fan of staring down the barrel of a loaded pattern and "hoping" we don't end up with a shutout. Seems around here alot that when good patterns show up, many folks assume a storm will follow. I only wish it worked like that. Eta: a good part of producing around here is luck....that goes without saying

Is this the buzzword this season? No more bomb cyclone?

You can see the pattern already reverting back on several of the ens members by day 12. I will say this....we've scored twice with the negative PNA and there are zero guarantees with the +PNA this year. Seems the alignment of the pna ridge is forcing the mean trof in the East too far off the coast based on progs. Regardless, I dont hate the looks moving forward....think we have chances with either phase of PNA as long as we don't go back to a -5SD -PNA. Im a believer in less is more....dont always want/need an epic tandem of tellies to score. Should be an interesting window coming up.

Damn....PTravel, there's a name i haven't heard in years

Happy Birthday!!!