Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Haven't even seen the precip maps, but the 850 low looks great. What a solid run for this potential.
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Not with the surface wind vectors NNE as shown. Perfect spot and wind trajectory on that map. Speaking verbatim on the euro, not my call, but that look likely wouldn't be an issue 95 n and w. Eta: 850 winds r actually NW.
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Euro clobbers on friday:
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Friday looks good on the GEPS:
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Parents in N Cape May reporting gale winds, blowing snow....estimated 10" so far as per their obs.
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Heavy snow in N Cape May
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Don't sell yourself short on those "shitty snow maps".
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It is kind of funny if you look at the NAM to see DC and Baltimore crushed but Philly on a fringe, NYC on a fringe, and Boston on the fringe. This one is yours. Enjoy!!
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Thinking my parents in North Cape May might need a visit tonight and tomorrow
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HRDERRPS ticked NW
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I know nowcast time and all that, but the rgem crept nw thru the first part of the run. Looks good
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Not really model chaos at all tbh. NAM blows, didn't even have a storm til this AM. Euro also didn't bite until last evening. Those 2 aren't the powerhouse guidance they once were prior to 'upgrades'. Follow the GFS which has led the way.
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Won't take much of a wobble either way tbh. It is going to be difficult looking over the river and know "the shore" is getting over a foot and we have mood flakes N and W.
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Jan 1987. Have it all on vhs lol
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N fringe is going to struggle. Massive CAA push coupled with dry air and a tightening ULL is going to lead to a sharp cutoff near the DE River with ragged light precip N and W.
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No towel throwing. Was never sold on much accums up this way. Gung ho on the areas I mentioned tho and feel good about that call right now. Mood flakes to 2" up this way. Up to a 10" stripe across S NJ, Central and S DE. Hrrr also stopped the NW bump fwiw so thats 3 of 4 at 12z to halt N tick so far.
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This reminds me of Jan 1987, seashore special. Heavy strip central/southern de across lewes and the Del Bay into Cape May and S Jersey thru ACY. Smoking cirrus up here is very likely.
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GFS and NAM stopped the N and W shift. Clearly a S Jersey shore special. Good luck!
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Its happening
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And fv3:
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Pattern looks workable mid month. Big signals are the PAC (+PNA, -EPO, -AO?), the TPV over Baffin Bay, and some stj waves with a weak split out West. Now to avoid the Feb 2018 repeat, we dont want the mean trof in the East pictured here to drop big energy in the SW and go back to the -PNA we were in. Hoping we can avoid that. Looks like good things during prime climo.
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94% efficiency. Dec 26-Feb 16. Temp hits 60 and we see snowflakes within the next 5 days following.
