Oddly the mesos show sleet under the heaviest banding. Opposite of what we are used to and a red flag imho. I have us at 3-4" also before the flip. Not buying the long duration impact. After the thump and flip looks showery and I doubt much more accumulates with those lighter rates during the daytime. My heart sides with @The Iceman looking at the gulf of Mexico feed and hoping for an overperformer. But my gut and experience says this is going to disappoint many who are expecting 6"+ which will probably be localized to the West.