Ralph Wiggum

I see you caved and went with some accums finally. Wise man are you. Rates will be decent during this. Ratios not so much but surfaces will cave rapidly.

That banding feature looks like a summertime tstorm front. Im willing to bet those that manage to remain snow under it pickup a quick 2-4" with some 5" lollis reported. Most guidance is hanging onto the cold just long enough now to not want to never flip my area until the final few minutes. This is the winter that just wants to trend the right way.

Thats funny because the NAM 3k, rgem, hrdps, wrfs, and hrrt all nudged totals to 2-5" almost everyone w of say 476 and n of the Turnpike

I said for a while, not for the season.

Lets do it! Quick refresh. Then the warmup. In fine calling it a season after this

Whatever happens it looks like these will be the last flakes SE PA sees for a while.

Canadian models (ggem, rgem, hdrps) are insisting this is 3-6 hrs of heavy snow at 1-2"/ hr. Increasing with each run. NAMs are nothing like it.

GFS trended the right way. Euro has it but weakish. Worth keeping an eye on but not a strong signal attm

I actually really enjoy the last 2 weeks of feb and the first days of March. Not enough angle yet to be completely detrimental but just enough to usually keep roads in check and as you said also helps with cleaning the car.

What radar app is that?

I've seen worse late Feb looks. Clean up that mess near the GL, flatten out the SER a hair, and move the Western ridge east a blip and we probably have something. Winter isn't over yet thats for sure.

Looks like the LP in the GL mucks up thermals for what could have been a decent Southwest flow gradient event in later panels.

198 system pulling away. Light rain showers everyone. LP Western GL ruling the flow. Meh, didnt get it done but there is the northern solution I was fearful of. This isn't a suppressed look at all.

192 light snow northern sections, sleet most of SE PA. Rain in extreme SE PA. Surface wave is weak.

186 light snow in western sections. Surface low reflection off the C/NC border. 1031 hp offshore but CAD evident.

At 180 the hp still centered right over Atlantic City. Storm has stopped in its tracks in the TV and weakness is evident off the SC coast trying to redevelop.

Confluence pulling out at 174. 1032 hp centered over us. 1012mb system is in Tenn Valley pushing into the back of the hp.

Euro is doing what my my thought scenario was a few posts back. Swings a ns wave through, drags the baroclinic zone/boundary into the mid atl, bowling ball vort coming east from the Rockies. Need it to keep moving so it doesn't pump heights ahead too much while moving thru before confluence pulls out of the Northeast. All about timing...lets see where she goes Eta: the kicker moving into the West Coast should keep our potential system moving. Not a bad look at all thru this panel

Fresh total is 40.5" for the season.

I think the NS is going to press thru as has been routine during a nina with a lead wave Tuesday pm or wed dragging the baroclinic zone to the South for the overunning followup wave to track along. As we've seen, the baro front hasn't pressed as south as guidance had been showing at range. Im probably completely off base and I'm sure the look/setup will change. But I can see the front dragging thru the mid atl then then overunning pushing way N fighting the SER flex. It has my attention, but im not overly thrilled just yet.

Next week has a solid evolution. Im worried these looks aren't quite suppressed enough at this range. Willing to bet this turns into an upstate PA/LV bomb

I did it. It was a blast. I have a skating rink in my yard from the rains freezing. The kids are 'skating on it. And yes, very refreshing.

I want to shovel but with freezing drizzle still happening I think I'll wait to avoid the skating rink effect. Either way going to have to do it again in the AM.

Its my m.o., reverse psychology/denial sort of thing.

I was merely playing devil's advocate