Ralph Wiggum

Thinking similar regarding Dec and the greater chances later in winter. In my outlook I noted the strong anchored TPV, the progressive and fast PJ (Nina) and the NAO/AO as our key players this year. Also noted the record PDO which will play a role especially as we move ahead. I was on the fence with BN snowfall and much above (went with BN for my region) because based on what we see right now and historical given a Nina, makes sense to err on the BN side. But what was keeping me on the fence was the hangover neg NAO and AO from last winter and also was a background state this fall. I was thinking if those 2 tellies play nice, we could easily jump into the AN category....it won't take an historic blocking episode. Just periodically work in tandem to push this active PJ under our regions and we are gold. However, we are seeing those favorable tellies fade fast, and I'm not so sure they will be a background state or even show themselves again until after Christmas. Personally, not a huge fan of what I am seeing moving a couple weeks into Dec but this was also expected to a degree. Eta: we probably won't 'torch' this year with +20 AN temps for stretches, but most of us will likely be pulling our hair out for periods and grow tired as the flow is fast and mid 40s to low 50s become common with the bulk of wintry weather farther N. We will get our shots, but this is probably going to require patience to the nth degree this winter.

GEPS is suggesting the same. TPV is anchored, NAO going positive, AO positive, and PNA going negative. The PJ is just ripping. So as usual Nina fashion, which will continue to build into Dec, Southern features will get shredded and PJ clippers will continue to our North. Wont take much from the AO/EPO to nudge the PJ underneath us at times, but the overall theme early is going to be close calls. Mid 40s to low 50s general theme, ie seasonal.

Don't look at the GEFS....first half Dec may be off the table too. Thinking a painfully slow start this year then we get chances in early/mid Jan.

Happy Thanksgiving folks!

January 4

Isn't the MJO the thing that teased us all winter long back in 2019-20? And wreaked havoc with LR forecasts?

Radio show?

If anything, the ensembles means all are signaling a pattern flip after the first couple days of Dec. Of course they could be wrong, but they are in strong agreement with an Aleutian HP/central PAC blob and flooding the country with a PAC firehose. NAO is forecast to go strong positive and the PNA slight negative. As Newman noted, the PDO is not going to play nicely this year it appears and that favors the pattern flip I mentioned as we go forward into December (BN out west, AN temps East). We are going to struggle to get much snow before 2022 imho. Not being a Deb, but all signs are starting to come together in a not-so-favorable way at least early-on. Those regional outlooks suggesting an early and often start might be in trouble. Need that NAO to save us at some point as we trek into the deeper winter months, but the TPV on steroids is going to have something to say about that.

These are essentially a blend of the thoughts I posted a week or 2 ago. Below avg snowfall, slow start, TPV anchored over the N Pole, and variability. We are going to get bored with mid/upper 40s to low 50s for stretches then get a few of those days where we struggle to get out of the teens. I do think our cold spells come via blocking not necessarily related to any SSWE. A bigger storm (deeper cyclone) threat is more likely this winter based on several factors, one of which is Nina potentially staying weak/mod but quickly moving to neutral or even weak Nino by late winter. Slow start, moderate middle, higher variability late.

Stink bugs and cucumber beetles/weevils still all over my jawn

No CPF available. If we are to cash in during a Nina year, we are going to rely on HL blocking in the AO/NAO regions. An EPO ridge on steroids will help too. But there is zero semblance of any SER either....and while this is OK for keeping unseasonable warmth at bay, it will also allow for systems to slide/shred. Another thing I've noticed so far early, the trof axis when we do get mid lat cyclones has been displaced to the east....another function of a Nina progressive pattern. I actually think my region is the screw zone this year and think parts of THIS region will fare a good deal better.

One background state I've noticed for several weeks is the beat down/lack of any SER. One would think thats a better sign than a full lat pig SE ridge that we are fighting early in the season. Lets see when the Midwest starts accumulating snow. Thats a good indicator for us as the pattern steps down.

It's rarely the epic blocking patterns that give us the widespread memorable events. More often than not it is just as the pattern is developing but more likely as it relaxes and breaks down.

Was Ji pleased with that event?

GEFS/EPS do exactly what I spoke about a few days ago wrt Scandinavian ridging propagating into the Greenland region and developing a -NAO. 1st, we need this to not just be some day 8+ fantasy. 2nd, we need to see this become a repetitive background state this winter at least showing up periodically. With the pig TPV still strengthening and anchored over the N Pole and a raging PJ ripping underneath we are going to need NAO blocking this winter to avoid a dud imho. Not saying we can't cash in without it, but as I said the NAO is going to be the biggest key to things this winter. Without it we are going to need alot of PNA/AO help. Good look on guidance post Thanksgiving....thats about all we can hope for at this point.

If we get NAO blocking to counter the progressive PJ around the strong TPV then yes, bad winter incoming. If the NAO doesn't cooperate we are going to need alot of help. Good thing is the NAO has been in the negative generally since Sept....so the tendencies are there. But at some point it is bound to fold, and with the strength of the TPV and depth, that could pose some serious issues/concerns irt winter wx in SEPA.

There will be more cold than usual to tap this year. The TPV shows no signs of being bullied around like the past few. However, there is still a neutral AO that has shown some negative tendencies in cooler months. NAO has been in a background negative state since mid Sept and should show some decent HL blocking at times this winter. With enso being in a weak/mod Nina state, and the TPV anchored, polar jet will be fast/progressive and very active. With lower heights forced under HL ridging at times, displacement of the PV into the NE down thru our region will occur. Won't argue we will have AN temps at times, but we should see some episodes of deep surface cad/non-snow frozen types. With that said, if NAO blocking can continue to show negative tendencies this year and force the powerful and active Polar jet to amplify and slide disturbances under us and around the bend, we could see an increased chance for deeper systems compared to average. I do like how we have seen the NAO and had it around most of last winter. Has certainly had an anomalous neg tendency last 12 months. Lets hope it doesn't flip positive, at least not for prolonged periods. Not sure we are going to be celebrating if we don't see the PJ visit the region via NAO ridging. All or nothing pattern this winter. Have suspicion we are going to struggle thru a fast flow for periods and pulling our hair out with stretches of mid/upper 40s to low 50s during parts of the winter with generally tame weather. Then missing out on late developing Miller b's as they crush New England and Nova Scotia. Generally expecting slightly BN snowfall here with an increased chance for a bigger storm. Whoever cashes in if/when blocking appears will do very well, higher chances for a KU event. Will also be interested to see how quickly enso goes into a nino state. Some guidance takes Nina to mod/strong before quickly going neutral and eventually weak Nino. How strong Nina gets when it peaks before crashing with play a huge key in how the season unfolds. I could see this season going quickly AN snow if the -NAO is anywhere near as prevalent was last winter. Im banking on it not being like last winter but appearing every so often as ridging propagates poleward from Scandinavia. We shall see.

You guys are slipping. Happy hour GFS hits are back....and only 10 days away

Dude....too soon. But point noted.

I will tell ya what though....Rjay will be sorry he merged the 2 subs when he is on 24/7 banning and deleting posts because you know a merge would be an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions. Could potentially disrupt the entire site and bring it down as many have been witness to in the past.

This may be the only post you've ever made that I agree with.

Don't tell the Euro. Exactly the opposite. Early fall warmth after next weekend. Model mayhem.

Yes on the backside it appears. The euro is also the strongest and farthest under the region with the disturbance. Good to see things tracking under us with ridging up top. Take that as a positive this early on.

First flakes of the season around the region should fly centered around Nov 16 give or take a day on either side. Powerful cold front passes thru next weekend with a followup wave on its heels passing South of the region with cold air in place. All 3 major global models have it. Temps marginal given the time of year especially in the lower lying areas. Elevation snows a better possibility with wet flakes mixing/white rain possible outside of the higher elevations. Let the tracking begin.

Weenie run on the 12z gfs. Well, relatively speaking for mid November. Cold and mixed precip locked in after the 14th.