Ralph Wiggum

That minor threat went South quickly eh? Hope this isn't a precursor pattern to this winter. Remember when the GFS was so amped it cut thru western PA? Trended to a sheared fast moving flat wave. Thought that made more sense than amped up but didn't think we would see nada out of it. Holding out hope for a couple mood flakes anyway.

My bar is set at a trace. Just want to get on the board.

12 GFS mirrors the NAM....general T-2" event. Hopefully it holds....would be nice to break the ice with a grass whitener.

12z nam everyone sees flakes. T-2"

Still not completely sold on the Wednesday system. Some flakes should fly and maybe some light measurable snow for parts of the region, but clearly a fast moving wave developing well offshore and too late. Classic Nina. Also classic in that these zipping waves can be tough to nail down until mesos are in 36hr or less range. As noted ad nauseum, this is the catalyst for an overall pattern change to more evident ridging in the SE with subsequent troffing in the West into the Rockies. HP settles into the Aleutians and appears to become a staying feature for the foreseeable future. But this isn't the be all-end all to this winter. According to the LR ensemble means, as things progress towards the weeks of Christmas and NY, the big blob ridge in the Aleutian chain will try and extend into the EPO region and establish a quasi CPF with a significant change to the cold air source into N America and the US. May take a little longer for this to translate over into our region. Also seeing less LP anchored over the NAO region with more ridging evident in Scandinavia which traditionally is an origin source for an eventual shift to a -NAO. But alas, this is a way out there and mere speculation beyond the ens means at range. So some flakes in the air Wednesday, maybe some light accums in spots (t-2"?). Moderating weather as the pattern shifts with a stretch of some AN temps. Then maybe some improvements overall later in the month as CPF attempts to change our cold air source while ridging in the SE remains. Could setup a decent battleground between the PJ and the SER with hints at potentially some HL blocking by the week of Christmas towards the very end of the month.

Welcome to the Philly forum where no one likes us and we don't care!

NAVGEM came N and was a decent early Dec hit for SE PA

Follow the trend. Go back 7 or 8 runs and follow the trend. Stubborn yet classic GFS late to pick up the fast Nina flow. Like the old Euro...it doesn't seen to make massive moves run to run but the Euro and GFS have reversed places the past 2 or 3 years. More upgrades? Eta: I'm not discounting measurable snowfall. Been suggesting for a while there will be some. Im just having a tough time wrapping my head around a 6"+ model where the pattern doesn't support it. Said in my outlook and sticking to it...c-3" events will be the norm this year.

You're in trouble if you are using 2 runs of 6"+ from the GFS as a baseline for snow totals. GFS was always the most amped with this system and has been stubborn and slow to trend towards other guidance. I felt the other day the CMC had the right idea leading the way with the squashed/sheared look especially given the progressive Nina flow. Still hoping the N and W folks can cash in on some measurable but im beginning to think that may be a challenge given the lack of any SER or real amplification in the flow.

Should fit the Nina norm of either sheared and suppressed....colder. Or slightly amped wave coming Norther and N and W areas seeing measurable. Still leaning towards N and W seeing the accums this time. Then we take a break, and hope the pattern resolves itself by the Christmas and NY holiday week(s).

ICON came in flatter and subsequently colder with less of an ocean influence. In line with 12z CMC. This is the direction we want to head....without it of course shearing out too much and becoming a nothing burger like happened last Nina episode repeatedly.

CMC may have the best idea in that it is the most progressive solution. Ukie digs the energy and bombs out off the VA Capes. Given the progressive nature of the pattern we have seen, I doubt this will be much different than other recent systems but maybe the N and W can cash in with some measurable snow.

This seems pretty realistic given nina climo tbh. Something to watch down along 95 anyway. I was down the shore yesterday, and the winds coming off the ocean were very warm for this time of year. Im going to say let's hope for a weaker system or wave that slides under us with this threat. Dont want much easterly wind component right now in a marginal situation.

Didn't see euro. Saw the gfs is still stubborn....but the ICON and CMC say game on. That's the system I was chirping about possibly doing something as that sysyem is the catalyst for the pattern change the ensembles have been show for after the 9th. So yes, I'm on board for a trackable event Dec 8/9 before things deteriorate for a period. Hoping we can get a minor event out of it at least. What does the euro show anyway?

LR guidance definitely firm Nina look. Kissing 70 degrees in SEPA on the GFS this run. Shutout stretch incoming, hopefully it can remain transient. On a somewhat related note, TWC showed this the latest in any year they didn't have a named winter storm by now. Reflection of where we are at so far. Not good.

You're not thinking about cancelling winter are you?

Cold front passes thru on the 6th. Trailing wave slide thru around the 8th. GFS and CMC have a Tennessee Valley wave with CAA via HP N of ME. Euro is less enthused and cuts the wave. In any event, something to watch and quite possibly our last real threat for a while as this is the catalyst note previously for our pattern shift to crud Nina (-PNA/+NAO/++AO). With that said, if I eat crow and the pattern doesn't shift where it would in a typical Nina and the cold keeps coming and the poor tellies are transient, we might actually be in for a better run in Dec than what guidance is currently showing. However, if things change without batting an eye into the old familiar Nina look right on schedule, then we are going to need quite a bit of patience this winter. During Ninas we tend to nickel and dime our way to below avg snowfall with several coating-3" types and some thump to mix garbage. Right now, I dont see why this Nina would be any different, especially given the PDO phase that is locked in.

Been watching the transition storm to the crud pattern Dec 7ish give or take a day. That one has a chance to produce a little something before the pattern deteriorates into +panic/++whining regime thereafter.

Exactly. Wont be a shutout. But is going to require alot of patience.

Imo thats the one to keep an eye on for something. Nina climo says far N and W event or a white to wet changeover type event. It is after this the pattern looks to go to crud. GGEM op doesn't agree with its own ensembles on the system it shows a few days later. And those of us around a while know that in a fast PJ nina regime that LR storm tracking usually doesn't work. Overall longwave pattern and tellies can be looked at farther out but the smaller synoptic events tend to jump up and surprise under 100 hrs.

Yes sir. Those blues and oranges are pretty much all in the opposite spots we would want to see them. GEPS isn't too far off. Maybe we can sneak something out around Dec 6-8 as the pattern flipper to that crud rolls thru, but more than likely and based on Nina climo would favor N and W.

Story of the next 7 days. That PJ is screaming: Then this signal has been showing for longer range into Dec. Fugly:

Only way to possibly slow the screaming PJ is with a SSWE (good luck with that), a robust -AO and/or a West based -NAO. Not sure a +PNA helps much until maybe later in the winter (Feb/Mar). -PDO is going to hurt us significantly. And the EPO would probably deliver a PJ dip in the Plains with a subsequent SER amped up so unless axis is perfectly aligned, that likely isn't going to help much either. With the Nina now forecast to go develop steadily into moderate levels and last thru March, we are looking at a tough stretch.

Not a single flake here

Thinking similar regarding Dec and the greater chances later in winter. In my outlook I noted the strong anchored TPV, the progressive and fast PJ (Nina) and the NAO/AO as our key players this year. Also noted the record PDO which will play a role especially as we move ahead. I was on the fence with BN snowfall and much above (went with BN for my region) because based on what we see right now and historical given a Nina, makes sense to err on the BN side. But what was keeping me on the fence was the hangover neg NAO and AO from last winter and also was a background state this fall. I was thinking if those 2 tellies play nice, we could easily jump into the AN category....it won't take an historic blocking episode. Just periodically work in tandem to push this active PJ under our regions and we are gold. However, we are seeing those favorable tellies fade fast, and I'm not so sure they will be a background state or even show themselves again until after Christmas. Personally, not a huge fan of what I am seeing moving a couple weeks into Dec but this was also expected to a degree. Eta: we probably won't 'torch' this year with +20 AN temps for stretches, but most of us will likely be pulling our hair out for periods and grow tired as the flow is fast and mid 40s to low 50s become common with the bulk of wintry weather farther N. We will get our shots, but this is probably going to require patience to the nth degree this winter.