Ralph Wiggum

Maybe, but what else should we discuss?

Euro...50/50, PNA ridge, neg NAO, SER keeping anything from sliding, PJ dipping, STJ vort rolling ENE. Might not be perfect and all the usual caveats apply given the range, but it keeps showing up and slowly improving. Probably a little too late to get er done verbatim this run, but plenty of time.

Ops beginning to see the threat centered around Dec 22. STJ energy meandering East, transient PNA ridge popping, neg NAO. Brief window but in a Nina these opportunities are what we look for. Probably the first real threat so far in the overall Nina pattern.

Not sure you can guarantee a snowstorm, but one of your brief and better informed posts.

Euro on board. Big storm for Mid Atl to New England. Haven't looked at thermals, dont particularly care much at this juncture. Small window here as the trof west/ridge se reloads. This is one way to score in a stubborn Nina pattern as the pattern reloads itself.

CMC just a hair late. Probably a bomb for the fish this run. Long way out no sense picking an op apart but I will say given an historic look at Nina and STJ response, doubt the southern energy remains that far South. More likely to be weaker and more strung out farther N. Just my random musings.

OP at range but sniffing out the threat centered around the 22nd. Should start seeing more fantasy runs over the next few days. Still a signal on the ens....nothing overwhelming but a window nonetheless.

Big changes on the ens for the week of the 20th. The @The Iceman thump to rain on the 20th still possible but looks like models have moved this threat up in time to the 19th with vorts racing thru the flow. Not clear how much cold air will be available at the onset....setup seems very marginal for now but certainly something to watch. The followup longwave pattern/system around the 21st/22nd holds potential and has me more intrigued as it is dependent on a rare Nina southern piece of energy meandering across the US via the STJ. Models are all over the place with the handling of that wave.....GEPS/CMC want to keep it in tact but zip it along the STJ with a zonal flow. The GEFS absorb the wave into the PJ and ride it to the West of us. GEFS do have some decent members that show the potential if the timing and wavelength play in our favor. The Euro is probably the closest in popping a big storm as it keeps the wave somewhat in tact and tries to amplify it via phasing along the Mid Atl coast....something a few of the GEFS portray. The EPS have it but not quite as enthused on the means tho I am sure there are some hits on the individual panels...haven't checked. Lots will change and much is dependent on the PNA ridge popping and how deep the NAO ridging becomes and the location of said ridging.

Not gonna lie, zoned off into this prog that looks a face. The 2 eyes have a hypnotic effect.

Week of the 20th has some good potential. Wouldnt be at all surprised to see a larger storm somewhere in the East during that week leading up to Christmas. Southern energy rolling across, active PJ being forced South as the PNA pops briefly and ridging enters the eastern NAO region. Euro/GFS family of models all over this threat:

This setup is starting to look better. This period has been popping a transient but stout PNA ridge and has southern energy meandering East with the blocking propagating towards Greenland from Scandinavia. These looks are getting nearer and time so I am starting to believe this pattern shift isn't just a head fake. Eta: maybe not a "pattern change" totally as it could prove to be transient. But in Nina I have learned that it is these pattern reloads where we have our better chances and need to eventually cash-in during late Dec/Jan.

I suppose SWFE/gradient events could work out with the -PNA but iirc it helps to have a -AO in place also for those to work out for both of our respective regions. Otherwise the gradient tends to relax to our N. A strong 50/50 under the -NAO would help also which has been hinted at in the LR ensemble with weakness hanging out in that region.

Funny, I was going to use that exact storm as an example but didn't want to imply we would have a redux this year.

LR certainly looking a little better in the Atl. Hopefully the cold air source doesn't get pinched off and disconnected as the TPV tries to settle into Western Canada/Alaska. One thing at a time tho....we need the Atl to play nice...thats a huge piece in this Nina....so I do like seeing that aspect improve on the LR ens.

Its funny because like 1 panel after this the East is torching. Of course we don't even know exactly how this will evolve but this could be one of those years where we sneak in a snowstorm then the following day it's in the low 50s.

Decent burst of snow here about 2 hours ago. Was out with my kids picking out a Christmas Tree and the skies opened up. Pretty cool. Anyone else notice trees are pushing $100 this year? Gone are the days of $30 Douglas Firs.

Must admit, the GFS nailed the temps kissing 70 this Saturday like 10+ days ago (preliminary kudos to gfs as there isn't much that should keep us out of the upper 60s at this point Saturday). I made a post in here on that. The comical thing is, if it were single digits forecast for highs, we would verify near 40.

We take

Goose accums?

The PDO you referenced is the real killer for the next 10 days imho, moreso than the enso right now. Once the h5 blob sets in over the Aleutians via the near record PDO profile recently, it is going to be tough to dislodge. We can hope it noses into the EPO region perhaps, but we will need help on the Atlantic side given the overall look in the Pacific. And I agree with PSU re the MJO. I would never say it sucks and will continue to suck and will never improve without facts. That certainly wasn't my point. Psu eloquently reinforced what I was basically trying to state... sometime you need to be careful what you wish for. Things will improve. It isnt a shutout pattern by any means, especially given it isnt even Dec 10 yet. We will get plenty of chances. And yes, the start in phase 6 is better than 3....but where it heads is still anyones guess. Moving ahead on the ens means, I do certainly like the look where we may be headed by Christmas week....epo ridging, weakening SE ridge, scan ridge propagating towards part of Greenland. Just gotta be patient.....and lord knows we do this well around here.

I take you back to winter 2020 when the amplitude was literally off the chart. Forecasts showed it moving along weaker into the next favorable phase but instead went right into the COD completely bypassing the forecast and traversed almost 180 into a warm regime. It was that particular situation that made me realize just how much of a dartboard that product truly still is.

Never trust the MJO....at least not until more research and upgrades have been funded for improvements. People hung their hats on this as our saving grace 2 of the last 3 winters and the phases that were forecast never materialized.

Whitpain in Montco brined

I said it a month ago, saying it again. We r going to be tired of low 40s to low 50s and partly sunny by January. Like u said, not a firehose of PAC air and probably not 70s, but boring AN temp weather the theme for long stretches this winter.