Ralph Wiggum

Have been watching the 10mb spv on the gefs for a while and the waves of warming. Nothing earth shattering like last year where the pv split several times but when the pulses of warming have shown and there is even the slightest bullying of the spv there is a correlation with the higher heights building in the NAO propagating from Scandinavia. Some key features setting up the next 14 days will be the East based -NAO retrograding to a thumb ridge in the N Atl to a West based -NAO. The GEFS idea make sense to keep the PNA generally negative with the lower heights in W Canada and the NW US feeding a very positively tilted -PNA trof. Cold air source will originate from the NW and keep pressing down under the -NAO and 50/50 tandem tango. We never really see the SER completely flatten but that isn't a bad thing as we move later into January. Big window coming up as the pattern continues to step down and look more mid-winterish especially headed into the New Year. If the NAO look persists, which I think it will despite some of the climate modeling LR forecasts, chances will be plenty moving forward.

Said back in Nov that we would get tired of mid 40s to low 50s and partly sunny stretches. So far has lived up to hype of a Nina with no real excitement or storminess. Going to need patience this year. Also said at that time that the biggest key to the winter will be the NAO phase. Some changes are coming to my outlook for JFM that I will try and post later.

LR ens....ridging in the NAO region, 50/50 anchored in place, AO going negative, big EPO ridge, weak SER.....looks like a decent overunning setup. What could possibly go wrong?

Also, there are waves of warming happening in the Strat and the SPV is showing sign of being displaced and/or elongated. I dont think the 'boring' pattern will last much longer and will add that by early January we should have several tellies working in our favor (-AO,-NAO, +EPO).

Not sure if it will matter or how much, but the Nina appears to have peaked and is beginning it's gradual forecast weakening:

Agreed, Christmas week were weak signals but windows of opportunity, tho it isnt looking like either wave will work out for us right now. GEFS/GEPS show an extended 50/50 signature after 300 hrs all the way past the end of their range. Add in the tanking -AO forecast during that week and maybe it's gametime.

Kicking the can sucks doesn't it?

That PJ energy on the means continues to stay farther separated from the STJ. Pretty sure we are slipping away from a phase on the ens and more towards a weak southern slider. At least we have the EPS Christmas eve miracle threat.

Looks like the system for early next week fell victim to the Nina. Fell apart on the ens and streams stay separate, no phase...Southern wave slides out to sea. However, several of the EPS members are showing a Christmas Eve miracle setup. So there's that.

Easier to see the +2/3 SD here:

Meso banding...wouldnt bet my house on that verifying 144+ hours out let alone 24 hrs. Overall this is depicting a N and W or even central PA hit. Ocean temps off of NJ above normal. Coastal plain to fall line at least would have issues based on that. But alas, just another solution about a week out still.

Alot of this storm this run comes at night....except this panel as it tries to close off midday Tuesday the 21st. Boom:

0z gfs follows suit. Improvements all around this run. N and W crushed. Nice storm...

Not sure this will get it done. Oddly enough the EPS kill the GLL and focus (weakly) on the progressive coastal low where other guidance is trying to anchor a low in the GL region. Still some time for changes and the signal is still there but the window remains small and the signal remains weak.

Euro crapped the bed too and the JMA went from a bomb to a total NS disaster. Thus is the winter of La Nina.

JMA went all NS...kiss of death

Pretty sure we know how this will play out, but it's still fun to get the rust off and do some sort of tracking.

That is my concern here. Nina climo says mostly N stream and the STJ wave gets shredded as it heads east. Nice mix of scenarios on the ens members. Like a few have said, not a strong signal for a major storm but certainly something we can have enjoyment tracking. It does weaken on several ens, so maybe.

Clustering of lows starting to show up on the GEFS with weakening GL low.

Nice clustering showing up off the Mid Atl.

All major global models on board still for a trackable event centered around the 22nd. Doesn't look like a blockbuster but a small window is there to give parts of the region some snow. Originally posted back in mid Nov that around Jan 4 would be the first respectable event of the season. Perhaps things are being rushed to the pattern change/MJO phase transition? Keeping a close eye on it for now. CMC/JMA most aggressive followed by GFS and Euro.

Weak signal but a small window in a Nina which are what we will need if we want to cash in.

Is this what TWC is calling it? JMA on board....probably the best look so far:

JMA on board as well...a bit faster tho. Over a week out, but a decent signal at this range for something to track. Few timing changes and an op bomb away from the board coming to life. Eta: seriously tho @RedSky, how can u write this off already? Or r u just trying to open discussion? Genuinely curious.

Maybe, but what else should we discuss?