Ralph Wiggum

What time are the feats of strength?

Mesos aren't enthused

Yep, all or nothing the past decade I feel like.

Based on the depth of that -PNA and trof out west, i would expect a more stout SER tbh

Agree 1000%

Noted in my outlook that we in fact do likely see one larger storm this year. Chances higher for a hefty overunning event as the pattern folds in Feb. I also think the chances for icing are increasing significantly based on the stagnant 50/50, -PNA, and SER.

Another pattern headfake alert. Already seeing signs of the better ens looks in early Jan becoming flawed. Colder/seasonable? Sure. Sustainable pattern change? Nope. Rolling over on itself and reloading. The Jan thaw this year will be beach wx with all these mid and full lat ridges in the East flexing from the SER. Beat it down for a day or two then flex on roids.

Cape storms never disappoint. Never.

But the same period upcoming that is growing warmer on ops was also progged as a dramatically cooler regime 14 days prior on the ens. So who's to say we aren't getting head faked again for the 1st week of January?

Ha, no stj at 0z to all stj at 12z. I truly loathe LR op solutions at times....just comical the changes run to run.

Easy visually to see where the mean trof is anchored.

I posted regarding this in another subforum and was discussing with one of their posters for a few days now. Yep, this is the change the atmosphere needs imho. May hurt us, may help us.....but can't be any more boring than right now. The warming at 10mb across ens is encouraging.

We do. Did I typo in that post? Eta: whoops yes I did. Should read positive not negative. Ty for pointing that out.

One aspect I alluded to yesterday was the waves of warming in the strat. Not sure I would categorize it as a SSWE tho. However, the ens are getting more aggressive with the SPV bullying. PSU and I discussed implications of the SPV and concluded that these warming events are sometimes catalysts in reshuffling the deck. So maybe this disruption to the spv anchor will end up being what the doctor ordered wrt to pna tho the spv is generally more high lat related.

Aside from this 24-hr current transient shift to a neutral PNA, when the PNA is progged to actually shift to positive and is under 100 hours out, then our window is opening. Until then as we enter Jan, we are going to be relying on historic climo, and I'm not sure we can count on this like we did 15 years ago. Eta: fixed typo

Once I saw the MJO getting discussed ad nauseum elsewhere 2 weeks ago, I knew exactly where we were headed. I made a "heads up" post regarding MJO for 2 winters ago that also got stuck in the same manner but was told that this time is different. Im not looking for arguments, hopefully we get some true discussion, but I would rather just be honest (different than a deb btw) than be like a JB-type dangling carrots and making people think things are golden. Yes, we will have a period of winter sandwiched in this season. It happens in even the most unproductive winters. My point isn't to cancel the season lol. It is to factually discuss the repetitive pattern until there are LEGIT mid range signs that it is going to shift around. We need the PNA to shift first and foremost imho but with the Nina and the PDO phase the way it is, that's a double whammy and tough order but it can and will happen eventually..just not sure when. Lots of patience.

The SER is going to continue to show as flat after day 10 with a weakness thru the Midwest and extending into the 50/50. This would be great most seasons. And this isn't just saying this is Nina, it sucks, deal with it. This is a fact if you go back over the past several weeks. This is the 3rd time we've been headfaked into some mythical pattern change recently. Then once the ens get under 10 days the SER shows stronger and begins linking with the NAO. Wash, rinse, repeat.......for now. I will likely be wrong in my thinking that the NAO may save us this winter and be a key factor. It looks like the -PNA and SER via Nina are our big players and we are going to need help from those for our window to open.

Early January just got can-kicked thanks to a full lat ridge linkup in the East between the SER and NAO. This was a legit concern of mine a week or so ago that I posted about, but I decided to try and point out some positives on the ens. That method isn't working anymore and there is no sense sugarcoating things. Going to be a winter that requires tons of patience and we likely get a 7-14 stretch of actual winter if we are lucky.

Side bar on these ens....the SPV takes a pummeling the next 14 days. Looks to split at least once as waves of warming bully it around. There is usually a correlation with HL blocking and the strat, so there's that on our side wrt the NAO/AO/EPO hopefully.

Gone at 12z . Flip flop. Nina doing what Nina does best. Lots of head fakes on the ops. Best to go with the ens for the LR and even such, take with a grain of salt.

Exactly. And probably wouldn't have raised a red flag on the LR ens had we not repeated this pattern already. Keep those two ul ridges separate entities and we probably strike gold.

Mid feb to early March will rock tho...lock it up.

Problem is, it hooks up with the SER on several ens members and forms a mild full lat ridge in the East US.

My bigger fear is that we get a deep west-based neg NAO and it links up with the SER and forms a mid lat ridge in the East. Need to keep the two ridges from linking up and allow waves to ride across and over the flat se ridge rather than pull a full lat ridge. We shall see....there are signs on the ens that this is a possibility. If the two ridges link up then it is game over/shutout for a period. One thing at a time....lets get the neg NAO established first and foremost. Eta: reason I see this as one of our possible fail scenarios.....neg PNA and tendency for subsequent ridging in the se is the background state so far in this Nina. And we've seen the ridge go full at times...tho mostly transient thus far. See no reason for either feature to fade fast given the current enso phase.

Keep the neg NAO / AO looks and we will be given chances with the -PNA and the flat SER. Without the HL blocking we would be looking at 50s/60s regularly and not a chance. So while we may not even cash-in on these windows, it's better than a complete shutout pattern. Likely going to be a patience-testing pattern and in reality when all is said and done, we may get a legit 7-14 day period of winter sandwiched into this season.