Ralph Wiggum

Wiggum Rule in effect...60s tomorrow. Should see flakes in the air by Friday.

I was checking that out too. Separate entities now.

Some of you guys just got NAM'd on the GFS. Have the tables turned?

Not a bad problem to have, but might want to divvy up all these pending threats into separate threads.

Euro is a MECS especially N and W for Friday.

Happy New Year!! Looking ahead past the Monday slider, another system looms for Thursday PM/Friday. Has been modeled for some time now. ICON oddly enough has been the most consistent with the synoptic features and placement. Something to watch: Eta: GFS on board as well....for now

Nice looking PAC heading out towards mid month. Atl isn't ideal but we've seen worse and this look is serviceable:

This is a MUCH better look out in the PNA domain on the latest GEFS and one way we avoid catastrophe in January. PNA mean axis in this location is not a shutout look by any means and if a split can develop at all we (especially N and W) should enter a very workable window between Jan 8-18 with cold air nearby: Eta: And this ties in with the Feb 2018 pattern rollover/revert after this period. Definitely seeing a workable window tho then hints of a thaw which was noted on some of the weekly data.

Looking ahead, I'm not sure there is a whole lot to get excited about tbh. There is the tiny window centered around Jan 3 that is trending to a fropa with a quick zipping followup wave South of the region as cold chases precip. Could still be a burst of snow especially for the Southern parts of the region Monday AM. Another longwave fropa centered near the 7th with a followup wave on its heels also. We'll see if there is a better look for that setup as lead times diminish. Hemispheric pattern looks to be making adjustments starting in less than a week. Im wondering if the high lat blocking including the PAC monster near the Aleutians are shifting around due to this SSWE in the short term: It is right after this that we can detect the PAC block propagating from Aleutian chain up into a negative EPO ridge, negative AO: I've seen worse patterns modeled under 10 days, but more wanted to note the SWE ties to the HL ridging shifting around. The SPV is damn stubborn though and is not showing signs of being pushed around as much as we saw modeled a few days ago. The blob of warm convection in the strat at 132 hours should still be enough of a catalyst to try and shuffle things around wrt the HL tellies. AO is forecast to move near neutral with a clustering weak negative: Looking out farther, we also see the negative NAO ridge get shunted by the TPV as it tries and settle in near Baffin Bay. The NAO ens forecast reflects the TPV nudging the NAO out of the domain as it trends positive: The former NAO ridge becomes more of a flat North Western Atl ridge. Meanwhile, the blocking in the EPO hangs on and there is a mid lat ridge extending all the way into the far n and w portion of the PNA domain. A weak split flow is trying to develop off the W Coast. Not the best positioned PNA (neutral to slight positive at best here) but I've seen worse looks. The PNA is forecast to relax towards neutral. A better positioned ridge would likely have this index as a positive so we will see where this heads moving forward: This ens prog hemispheric pattern reminds me alot of Feb 2018. Iirc, that wasn't the greatest month on record for winter weather. Here is the UL hemispheric pattern for that month which can be compared to some of the LR ens means looks: What strikes me is based on the progression on the ens means developing that TPV near Baffin with other tellies comparable to early Feb 2018, once the pattern reloaded following the Baffin TPV which proved to be transient, the pattern rolled over on itself and went right back to a look similar to the current 500mb pattern with a big negative PNA, Aleutian PAC pig block, negative NAO, SER, (which the latter 2 linked up in 2018 similar to several times we have already see THIS winter). If you look at the temps for Philly in Feb 2018 you can see the roller coaster after the TPV moved out and the pattern rolled back to a big negative PNA with full lat ridging in the East: Go back and compare the LR ens with the 2018 500mb early February means...striking similarities. Im wondering if we do end up with a period of warmth later in Jan (thaw?) after a period of cold/dry when the TPV meanders towards Baffin out towards the beginning of the 2nd week of January. So I know first things first, but no way to sugarcoat the next 7 days or so seem rather uneventful for Philly proper in terms of winter weather. Many folks are begging for the pattern to reshuffle as we can't get much more boring actually. We should see things reshuffle towards the end of week one January. Signs are we finally get a cold air feed as the TPV positions itself near Baffin Bay and the EPO ridge allows for the cold in Western Canada to finally start to spill East and press South. Thereafter is a coin toss but there are similarities to Feb 2018 and if that former progression is to be believed, the pattern after the 'reshuffle' rolls over on itself and heads right back to a SER link-up with the N Atl ridge, a return to a negative PNA, and and stubborn PAC Aleutian ridge anchoring back in. This turned into quite a warm spell in mid Feb 2018 after a cold start and I am wondering if this is how Jan 2022 will also progress ie cold start followed by a significant Jan "thaw"?

Add this to the digital snow pile:

Cold and dry

I dont. Matter of fact the first snowfall contest im in for Jan 4. It snowed on Dec 8 and Dec 27 so I'm out lol.

I told you in early Nov that by January y'all were going to disgusted with low 40s to low 50s and partly cloudy. We r in it for the long haul....buckle up.

12z looks more Nina.. trailing wave getting shredded in the fast flow. Probably makes the most sense at this point with less of a transient PNA ridge popping now and more of a central USA full ridge developing and linking with HL ridging.

I'm thinking up to a half inch possible in spots. 1" lollis the exception far N and W. Icing concerns in the Poconos and N LV.

What say you? Maybe our big event for season?

Next window showing up centered around January 3. Wave passing thru ejecting out of the -PNA. SER relaxes briefly. GEFS most intrigued and flattest wrt the SER. Allows more of a textbook look with LP coming out of the TV sliding underneath us with HP extension to the North. GEPS has a signal, maybe a bit more amped with the LP tracking more North along the boundary and less of a HP north. EPS also has the wave but tracks North as the SER isn't nearly as flat with less HP to the North. Right after this wave the SER links back up (briefly?) with the NAO ridge as has been the case so far all winter. So the window is there, but it is a small window and is going to be dependent on how squashed the SER gets.

EPS mean is much faster with the poleward shift of the stagnant PAC ridge. By 240 hrs it has already moved well into the EPO region. GEPS wants to keep things steady and status quo wrt recent maritime longwave pattern. Usually a sign a change is indeed coming when the ens start disagreeing more in the LR.

Merry Christmas !

Nothing expert about it. Just trying to put pieces of this wx puzzle together.

This setup coming in 7-14+ days reminds me of 2010 and 2016. Still thinking at some point the chances for a larger storm are increased this JFM. We see what the base state has been with high lat atl blocking and a near-stationary block in the N PAC. STJ has had some waves riding thru so I wouldn't rule out this links up with the PJ once or twice in our favor.

Merry Christmas and Happy Festivus!!

The mid lat ridges both in the PAC and Atl have been linking up with the high lat ridging for months now it seems. This is why im hoping the strat warming pulses continue to put pressure on the SPV. I know that effects the high lat blocking hemispherically so just wondering if that would do 'something' wrt how the mid lat ridging is propogating/reacting. Like you said though, the whole thing could backfire and the pattern go apesh!t hostile but tbh I will roll the dice with that as an option. This current base state needs a shakedown and isnt doing squat for us attm. Im also unsure if this current base state and pattern continue into mid/late January that peak climo will be able to help us or not.....but that's a different topic for a another day.

That damn anticyclone over the Aleutians is like the storm on Jupiter...it literally hasn't budged and isn't forecast to budge any time soon. Maybe if we r lucky we can get the ridging to extend poleward in the EPO but thats a crapshoot at this point. Posted elsewhere and I realize the SSWEs are generally hi lat based wrt shifting tellies, but maybe the forecast warming up at 10mb can at least shuffle things around. I would roll the dice with it even given the possibility the PAC degrades even worse but just to get the chance to shuffle it around is worth a try at this point.

For those playing along at home, the new MJO plots (which I dont particularly care for as a forecasting tool) stall in 7 and some members even retrograde back into 6. Only thing I can say based on this is that we are in for the same status quo ho-hum pattern for the next several weeks, likely taking us into the 2nd week of January before we see any meaningful changes. Where we go from there, positive or negative, who knows? But base state out in the PAC specifically is locked in and the MJO is also stalled (or locked in) with no catalyst on the horizon to shuffle the deck. Probably going to take something on a hemispheric scale to change things around. There are possibilities of a SPV split in the next 10 days as a warming event intensifies, so with lag factored in, maybe we can see some changes at higher lat in the PAC as a starting ground after Jan 3ish. Not sure what this will do for the -PNA however or if it will do anything favorable at higher lat in the PAC.