Ralph Wiggum

We're in trouble aren't we? Just cut to the chase doc, and level with me.

Well, I still like the period centered around the 17th give or take a day. However, I will say it til I'm blue, this coming pattern is going to require a high amount of patience. Signs are that suppression will be an issue with the PV nosing down from Baffin Bay. We can score over the next 2 weeks, but more likely we will wait until the pattern relaxes. It is almost always like this. Pattern looks good, posters begin stating how we will enter a no-fail period, pattern turns out uneventful, guards lower, pattern begins to relax, SECS/MECS happens....not always, but more often than not.

Euro is an unmitigated dumpster fire. Of course day 10 always looks promising tho.

LMFAO! Who is freaking out? Patterns don't last forever....sometimes we score in epic patterns, other times we put up a goose egg. Personally, I would rather be in a mediocre pattern that isn't a shutout and take chances as they show up on guidance in the short range. Im not a huge fan of staring down the barrel of a loaded pattern and "hoping" we don't end up with a shutout. Seems around here alot that when good patterns show up, many folks assume a storm will follow. I only wish it worked like that. Eta: a good part of producing around here is luck....that goes without saying

Is this the buzzword this season? No more bomb cyclone?

You can see the pattern already reverting back on several of the ens members by day 12. I will say this....we've scored twice with the negative PNA and there are zero guarantees with the +PNA this year. Seems the alignment of the pna ridge is forcing the mean trof in the East too far off the coast based on progs. Regardless, I dont hate the looks moving forward....think we have chances with either phase of PNA as long as we don't go back to a -5SD -PNA. Im a believer in less is more....dont always want/need an epic tandem of tellies to score. Should be an interesting window coming up.

Damn....PTravel, there's a name i haven't heard in years

Happy Birthday!!!

Dare I say....I kinda miss TWC circa 1987-1995ish. Actual mets, some extremely extremely advanced mets (Stu Ostro, John Hope, Paul Kocin, Dave Schwartz, etc etc). Actually delved into atmospheric sciences and taught and took time to explain and weren't just on camera celebs. I know that outlet tends to get ripped by weenies near and far....but that was a much simpler time and we were at the mercy of the long range forecast they did once or twice an hour. Good stuff. The coverage of the 93 and 96 storms on there....epic.....just epic.

It only takes 1 teleconnection to be out of whack to throw the pattern of chaos into the abyss. If that coastal gyre mucks up what appears to be a decent stretch coming up, they will need to reopen the panic room before month's end.

But it snowed twice within 5 days and neither event was modeled out past 96 hrs. It's all rainbows and unicorns on guidance looking far ahead....until it all falls apart in a fiery blowtorch inferno under 5 days. I love tracking a MECS for 10+ days....well, honestly it's exhausting by the time the storm gets here. I would rather a ho hum pattern where we sneakily back into several modest events than a carrot dangling and pulled away at the last minute. But thats me. But like any gambler will tell you, you need to play big to win big... so there's that.

How did you make out up there?

Not at all discouraged. I feel good that we can score at least once over the next 3 weeks. Im saying let's hope we aren't looking back in 3 weeks saying damn, the early Jan so-so pattern produced but the epic unicorn pattern just teased us. That would be a true kick in the junk. Still looking hard at the period centered around the 17th.....I haven't changed on that in 10 days lol.

I hope that by end of January we aren't scratching our heads telling one another that we probably shouldn't have been in such a hurry to kick the early January pattern to the curb. Careful what we wish for....greed can be a dangerous and regretful thing.

As much as I'd love to keep the current pattern which already has overachieved twice, I'm also a gambler and would cash in this current producing pattern to spin the wheel at a KU event even if it means that's it for the rest of winter. Different strokes for different folks I guess.

Different pattern. This 'transition has done us well. But there are no guarantees in the LR. Personally I think I would have rolled the dice with the certainty and kept the pattern. Hoping the big change pans out mid month and does everyone well in the snow dept.

Nice fish storm there.

Pattern ahead Jan 14-28 certainly looks favorable for large storm development....somewhere. The only 2 cons I see looking ahead are 1) we've all been headfaked in years past with epic pattern looks that end up verifying for 12 hours then revert back to the sos. And 2) as has been the case much of Nov and Dec, the mean trof in the East (when it has had the opportunity to dig) has been on an axis just too far to the east. A few big fall storms and 2 Dec storms we missed out on because they were too far off the coast. Not suggesting this hasn't or won't change. Just haven't spent a ton of time salivating over the looks but rather cherry picking what could yield failure. In my older years I've found it wiser to ask what could go wrong or why won't this work as opposed to ens at range as gospel. Though it is nice to see agreement on the cold push. If we get the big cold push, I urge patience as we could be overwhelmed by Siberia and need patience waiting for things to relax before getting the big dog. Now with that said, let's find a way to luck our way into a KU before this month ends.

I think nov-dec 95 were cold Eta: by @chris21

Congrats @KamuSnow (bored and just having some fun)

Bricked up, dang

Looks great! Nice foundation you have going there. Exceeded my expectations and as you said, feels like winter now. The wind cuts right through. Nice January weather....a viking beach day.

You stated before you had over 45 years in this industry also which is impressive. Overachieving ice accrual eh? Great Scott, I think you're on to something! Or on something. Not quite sure which at the moment.

4" here in Warminster. Exceed expectations.