Ralph Wiggum

Which is it? Optimistic or pessimistic? Sounds like you should practice what you preach. Please: 1) quit trolling the forum and 2) post less, read more. Thank you. And yes, it IS the most likely outcome attm. Almost every red tagger has acknowledged this. Almost every piece of guidance is suggesting this right now. Could it shift? Absolutely. Dependent of wavelength separation, strength of the vort, confluence strength and duration, etc. I agree with that. But seeing this setup several times over the past 25 years of being active in the hobby, this is not a classic clean transfer coastal look NOR a clean Miller A....areas not the way it stands right now on guidance. So I really don't think odds favor an all snow event here attm. I will stick by my thoughts of this being the most likely outcome for now....thump to mix then maybe slot. Hopefully that is optimistic enough for ya. Any snow is good snow I could care less if it taints or flips. Eta: I would love to discuss offline and spare the members your grief, but your inbox is full, might want to look into that

Do u have the 925mb panel by any chance?

JMA is a mauling fwiw. Damn near perfect track. JV models ftw!

Funny, we were told yesterday to ignore the JMA and ICON because they aren't in the same league as the other globals. Yet these 2 models show possibly the best outcomes of the bunch (location dependent). With that said, I am taking these and hugging the ever living p!ss out of them for now. Thank you.

Classic thump to mix/dryslot for i95 at the very least. Most likely outcome attm.

I'll take the 988mb off Fenwick Island ftmfw Alex, ty

I'm not so sure. One thing most guidance is really hearing on is the deep and strong 925mb SE ripping flow. I suppose a cleaner transfer, weaker sw, and track of the sw under us rather than over the big cities could help keep flow vectors with less of a SE component, but that ll jet is sticking out like a sore thumb. Let's nudge that weaker sw under us and take our chances.

I guess. Just don't see how this screams clean hit. Almost zero guidance supporting this so that statement is not unrealistic. Likely a thumpage to mix/slot then backend flakeage as the ull pulls thru. Pretty classic look for that tbh.

So since things are going the wrong way for the Sunday/Monday system, are we still lined up to have a relentless parade of threats in a favorable pattern the 2nd half of January? Or are those looks fizzling out as well? Ens means look ok to me and the split out west and stj look active, but it has been silent here and want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting the progs.

One thing has become clear with this system....it will not be a flush clean hit for the big cities along i95....that much I think we can say with certainty at this point.

Ugly. Almost ever low is onshore now.

There is no way the GEFS doesn't start moving the other direction now. I would be very surprised if they didn't move W but we'll see.

Crapped the bed at 90

Better look. This is headed the right way.

Strongly agree. Almost Miller A looking way down there in TX with the LP.

Like Roger Smith just stated a few posts above....pretty much ignore the ICON (and JMA).

I see some posts people talking about red flags. Here's your red flag... when the NAVGEM is by itself and east, something is up. Just my $.02......I've seen this before.

Ocean storm still finds a way to screw.

Disagree. Resembles Jan 25, 2000. Snow to sleet, dry slot, wraparound snows. Can see something similar here.

6z gefs are head scratching. The Friday system on the means is closer than the Monday system. You would think compared to the ops that the days got reversed on the GEFS. GEFS want little to nothing to do with Monday:

Myself and the GFS are still bullish on that period centered around the 17th fwiw:

This Friday....shades of Jan 25, 2000

Friday there will be the big ocean storm moving into the Canadian maritime over the weekend. From there, we will basically see a 'threat' every other day until the pattern relaxes. And what i mean by that is there are many chaotic shortwaves moving thru the flow. The cool part is, the PJ and the STJ both look active.

I was thinking about that earlier. I feel like highs in the low 20s was a common thing....a few decades back.

Define whining please