Ralph Wiggum

The next weekend thing looks good on the 18z GFS.

Flakes flying here in Blue Bell. Hopefully it's ripping fatties on my ride to Warminster in an hour.

The little victories are often the ones that matter the most in life. You will take your 5 minutes of daytime flakeage and enjoy sir.

I wish this was the lingo On-Camera mets used That would make for good entertainment.

GFS is the best model at handling the PJ. Nina has a pronounced and active PJ. That probably has something to do with it.

Garbage model man. Where is the old euro GFS is king.

Bingo. Im sure there will be some icing. But this isn't a major ice storm signal at all. I've been at 21F before and pouring rain....not fzra...just rain. Latent heat release didn't allow for ice accretion. Best icing conditions are lighter precip.

Not since the upgrade a couple years ago. However, whatever they tweaked to fix that bias seems to have screwed up the old Euro wheelhouse 3-7 day forecasts.

Up to 3" snow here tonight (KDYL) then plain rain by midnight. A burst of snow in the morning Monday....maybe a quick coating. Then all eyes turn to the end of the week.....

Should give it plenty of time to cut thru Harrisburg. Did you see the energy behind the low that is causing fits? Remind you of any systems recently or any that may affect the Eastern US maybe tomorrow into Monday? Eerily similar.

18z looks worlds different that 12z, not surprisingly. So many shortwaves ripping thru the flow. Every model run is going to be an adventure for the next couple of weeks.

Totally agree, long range is for ens. Was just noting the op....all those waves moving thru and hardly a flake in 2 weeks lol. I will say, as I'm sure u r aware, the gfs op has been smoking the gefs, eps, and euro lately. Have a hunch it just handles the northern stream in a Nina better. Thats just a wag tho.

So many chances yet the op doesn't drop a flake of snow here after tomorrow thru the end of January. I know....op. Just funny with all thats going on at 500mb we couldn't muster a flake this run.

GFS thinks similar wrt our area. He is the GFS rendition of snowfall thru the remainder of the month. Keep in mind most of that in E PA is from tomorrow's slop fest. Just ugly. Thankfully it's the op so there's that:

GEFS were all over it

What was the map he posted yesterday?

Not seeing it. Looks like a brief thump to rain for many still outside of far interior N and W:

Check this out. Look at the location of where it depicts the low. GEFS:

Funny because speaking with someone earlier, they were "impressed that the weather people nailed this 5 days out". Mind you, this is someone who only watches the news. Well, they do say the big ones are sniffed out early, so there's that.

Changes at the surface as the tick S and E is on. The low wants to be East as you can see in the bagginess. GFS did this yesterday and keeps adjusting that zone East. Track went from Greenville to Philly when the op was showing it going Greenville to Harrisburg. Then it made an adjustment. GFS 12Z looks like it wants to do this again today with notable weakness East of Henlopen. You can even see a closed surface circulation here from 12z: At 6z this weakness was carving a route thru New Castle:

The 850 low has been looking progressively better which can be good to look at if this may occluded and stack. Get this to trend under us and boom: This system has large amounts of moisture both Gulf and Atlantic. Someone is going to get walloped.

LR ens still look active and cold to end the month. Stj still in play coming out of a split flow on the West Coast. Not a progressive nor warm look:

Miller A look...rides the eastern portion of the Gulf Coast, cross N Fl and re-emerge just off Savannah. We have all been praying for a Miller A for a while, maybe this will develop into the one. There has been luck recently and the WDI is off the charts.

Thats what some guidance was showing as the Midwest sw dives into the trof to energize the system. But will that energy do a Jan 25, 2000 like you and guidance alluded to? Or will it dive in an energize the developing system? Or will it act more as a kicker to nudge it east? Maybe even a blend.

Looks like it has wiggle room to bump east some more on future runs given the weakness and lean to the east of the slp mean center