Ralph Wiggum

The op is cold and stormy moving thru mid month...borderline weenie run with chances. Awaiting the GEFS fwiw.

Almost textbook +PNA with EPO ridging up top. Definitely a window next weekend with those looks and stj energy moving thru. Maybe the trough can sharpen this go 'round instead of being just a broad trough as has been the case with some recent storms. ^^slightest ridge over Greenland, looks to be waning tho.

RGEM and others really close to making Mon-Tue an 'event' for parts of the region. Temps are marginal but with proper timing, track, and intensification it could actually creep up on us and work. Been trending better last 24 hrs. Miller B-ish where it develops off the Carolinas but probably a hair too late for us but we'll see what happens. Worth keeping an eye on anyway:

29F and a quick burst of pity flakes...all snow

31F freezing drizzle and flurries mixed in Ivyland.

Looking ahead, the most recent GFS op/GEFS are showing more of a tendency for ridging in the NAO region and still hanging on to ridging out West. This is something to watch starting 6 days from now. The quiet period may not be so quiet nor last very long.

The King has been dethroned

Thought it was ironic that one of the members here was saying they will wait until after the Presidents' Day storm 2022 before throwing in the towel on the rest of winter....then the first model run that extends beyond even fantasyland towards the 2nd part of that holiday weekend shows a system moving thru. Track away!

Agreed, we are just discussing. Thanks Iceman for the stats above. I said it way back in Nov and I am sticking to it. The odds for a larger storm this year are higher than normal. Solar min lag finally caught up, record widespread cold to the N in Canada and Siberia, a locked in EPO ridge and CPF at times. These are some of the things which make me believe Feb will pull a wild card storm. For the life of me I cannot see N and W burbs ending this much BN in snowfall. Maybe BN overall at the end still, but with all that cold around still, we are in a good spot. Late year Nina often show decent Atl blocking like we saw way back in the beginning of the year. Sandwich of a +NAO inbetween -NAO phases. If we had a puke PAC and we were going into the 2nd week of Feb and Canada was void of cold air, the we are probably closing the blinds and canceling winter. That stuff takes weeks to recover. There have already been several larger storms....some off the coast, some hitting S and E, some hitting New England. Yes, progressive systems so no KU yet. But if blocking in the Atl does pop up which I feel it should based on the pattern progression, odds for 1 or 2 more larger systems exists. But even with the lack of a big ticket storm or even a KU if blocking shows up, we aren't done just yet. To get where many have gotten this year in a Nina is extraordinary. I think we are all going to share in that soon. But to that. I also understand where some folks are at. Frustrating being BN and seeing other areas repeatedly getting pounded and near or AN. Nature has a keen way of balancing out. Keep the cold air source and the parade of vorts with the TPV on our side of the hemispheric near Baffin Bay and I will take my chances with all else factored in attm.

So which one is it? You agree with Iceman to punt Feb based on the "10-15 day models" or is 10 days out complete fantasyland? Not following your reasoning tbh.

And before anyone says ^^ it's too far West, its a fragile setup, etc keep in mind this is 10 days away and might vanish completely let alone be too tucked. Point is, dont take verbatim but know thay chances are still showing and we aren't in a close the blinds pattern by any means.

GFS and many of the GEFS ens members say mother nature has a way of averaging/balancing things out and to wait until after mid month before even considering writing Feb/winter off. This has been "on the radar" and quite a vigorous signal for a LR lead time for a few days now....consistently:

You are punting our peak climo and snowiest month on Feb 3? Gutsy call. Good luck with that.

I've seen more geese, robins, and finches the past few days in my yard than any other early Feb I ever recall. Also must have been a hatch of ladybugs...not sure where they live/breed in winter....but 5 live ones in the house today flying around. Must have them in the walls or something, not a bad thing tbh.

My buddy is driving from Philly to Frederick today and plans to drive back home tomorrow (Friday). Im not familiar with topography and micro climes down that way so I couldn't give him a solid answer on his travel conditions. Last I saw were a bunch of ice maps with Frederick in the crosshairs. Has this changed at all? I know up this way we aren't looking at much of anything frozen. Better for him to hold off leaving Frederick until Saturday AM or do you think Friday will be ok? Sorry to bother and clog the thread but I thank you for any advice.

^^But with this said, enso is shaping up early to be very favorable next fall into the early part of winter, so next winter may be very nice.

These rain to ice events are super rare around SE PA. I only remember it once back in the 80s tbh. So not surprised in the least to see the threat fizzle to a huge nothingburger down this way. Slow times ahead on the ens. Maybe a calm before we get into a late winter roller coaster pattern? Or will we simply prove that dirty groundhog wrong with an early flip to spring? Been doing some deep research and looking ahead to the summer outlook and must say it is shaping up to be a scorcher where we kiss triple digits a handful of times. Get ready.

Fyp

King GFS led the way (albeit a touch overdone) and signaled the frozen end to Thursday-Friday and others now following. Thus, I tend to lean to the GFS for Sunday. Especially considering the usual progressive NAVGEM is on board. Laugh as you want, that is guidance with a good red flag. If you use these tools for guidance, things can be deciphered and figured out. Used verbatim then setting up to fail. Just my $.02

Sleet accums still count towards snowfall totals, but im sure you are already aware of that.

GEFS strongly support the op. May be even slightly better for frozen. I will be honest. I cant remember a rain to fzra to sleet ending as snow before. Im sure it has happened several times. I just can't recall it.....probably because it just isn't a very common situation. Someone mentioned 1994. Interesting.

GFS continues to show better CAA and a long duration gradient wave event with the low tracking under the region. Was expecting the GFS to cave to other global guidance by now: Eta: alot of that in SE PA is sleet

18z gfs more snow less icy. We take.

Euro made a big move to the GFS. Has sleet. Key is it made a move towards the King.

Yeah, I dont think most of us here actually believe the GFS. It was just concerning to see it double down the way it did.