Ralph Wiggum

Without the DGEX, we just can't know.

18z NAM look good at range

Thats an ens means qpf sir.

This looks eerily familiar. Congrats S and E of the Delaware River......again:

So since we are under 120 hrs and closer to 4 days now, I see the models have a good handle on things and are just tweaking the fringe areas now. Im certain someone posted yesterday how advanced modeling is now are there aren't major shifts and changes at this range we just entered... merely fine tuning along the fringes. Assuming this is the exception to that rule?

That's it....im relocating to N Cape May bayside.....obviously the new snow capital of the region. My parents have had well over 2' so far this season down there.

What in the mother of screwjobs is this shit:

How so? 6z only goes to 72 hrs? If anything, the euro still wants absolutely nothing to do with this event. Less NS dig, timing way off with vorticity interaction. Guess we are seeing it differently or is one of us looking at the wrong maps?

Euro and ICON keep the seasonal trend...NJ shore special, LV fringed. Delicate setup here all about timing of shortwaves. We are relying on forcing between the NS and stj late phase to throw precip into the region. I think we run the risk of this escaping quickly without any blocking much like the other systems this year. If we r going to get a flush warning level hit, we need a deeper dig in the NS, the stj sw needs to go negative by the Miss River or neutral at very best, and things need to slow down. There is time but need to see corrections over the next 48 hrs.

If this turns into another NJ shore special, I might consider moving across the river to the Garden State:

I'd hit it

Fyp

We simply just can't know

I hope so, I'm ready to put this one in the past and move on to fishing season.

Unlike years past, we have basically all of Canada below normal temps, so plenty of cold air hanging out to the N. If Canada were void of cold, pretty easy to figure out things are bleak. But with all of that cold air still around, I really dont think we are done yet. Whether its next weekend, the PD weekend, or maybe sometime in March, we are going to have at least one more trackable large event. That cold air need to go somewhere...hopefully it continues getting funneled into the lower 48.

GFS and others have the W edge of precip nosing into E PA tonight as light accumulating snow.

Maybe a sneaky nickel and dime event for some tomorrow? NAM has snow and sleet Monday AM coating to 2" then came way west with the low tomorrow night with snow/rain into E PA:

WRF wants to do some icing. Extreme SE PA in the crosshairs:

RGEM is on board. Going to be light whatever falls but happens at the right hours to make driving a little sketchy in the morning.

18z NAMs both have coating to an inch tomorrow morning for rush hour with some sleet mixing as well. Doubt we see much accumulation but might make the AM rush slick with temps in the upper 20s and low 30s north and west. Hints at a second burst of snow right along the river overnight Monday.

Yet the eps, gefs, and geps have hardly a reflection at the surface during the same time. Don't ever recall all 3 ops honking at this range out with basically little to no ens support at all. Mind blown.

Then you look across at all 3 ens families and have to dig to find an individual member or two that even remotely support what the 3 global ops have at the surface.

Mentioned in the PHL group but how odd is it that all 3 major global ops have the V-Day storm in one form or another and are really close to something big-ticket but all 3 ens means have virtually nothing? Weird right?

Is DT intrigued?

Global ops all have a signal for right around Valentine's Day. GFS is all N stream and a sloppy late phase at best...keeps the southern sw separate: Euro is a phased bomb but has that classic look going into the event: The CMC is probably our best case look with a phased system that remains progressive and doesn't amp up quite like the Euro: With this said the ens aren't exactly honking, so it's even more intriguing to me that all 3 global ops have a trackable event during this period while the ens means are just meh.