Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Notable adjustments S with the CAA. Here are the last 4 GFS runs adjusting colder:
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Euro is trending quicker with the jump. 1010 and already well into the process of transferring the low to the frontrunner wave bagginess that hangs off the DelMarVa. That piece the NAM is keying on is critical in locking in low level cold with some northerly wind vectors...tho some other higher res stuff has this feature also.
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GFS also trended colder. Have a feeling the NAM is likely overdone as usual but probably has the right general idea. Expect guidance to continue hammering on the CAD as we get nearer. Different than other recent systems that went the opposite at this range.
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18z rgem came in slightly colder at the surface
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18z NAM is a disaster....if you like colder, snowier, then icier Thursday before flipping Friday
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They know how these go this time of year. Congrats Boston.
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I've seen ice storms in late February before. It isnt unheard of. ETA: though most signatures on guidance are more sleety and less freezing rain, but we'll see.
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Seeing the trend toward 2 waves now....which can sometimes spell a significant frozen event interior. Wave 1 Thursday, pulls down some CAA in its wake, then wave 2 Friday likely beginning as frozen in SE PA but flips wave 2 to rain unless in the LV where I would start to be concerned. Still a ways to go but definitely evolving hour by hour . RGEM is also quite cold moreso than the globals.
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Alot of this is sleet, but the frozen signal for Thurs/Fri is close to being locked in now.
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Ridge axis just too far displaced to the East has been a recurring theme with many storms this winter.
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18z GFS just made a big move toward the CAPE storm, or someone's storm not sure who claimed it, the one on the 27th/28th. Sorry if I credited the wrong storm owner/name dubber person.
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Where are you seeing this?
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Euro says its over after March 2. Entire continent all the way to the Arctic circle floods with PAC warmth, no cold air left to tap. Im fine with that:
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Euro trending colder for the late week system. Hints at a followup system just to our South late next weekend.
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Feb 24-25, 2022 Ice/Sleet/Rain/Snow (yeah sure) Storm Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Is this the CAPE storm? If so, you can't kill the threat....you can only hope to contain it. -
GFS is cute. Consistent and persistent ... I'll give it that. Doubles down at 18z when others go farther the opposite way:
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Debris
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Late week potential....in one corner we have: Euro/CMC/ICON/UKMET/JMA And the challenger: GFS Seems like an uneven matchup to me
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Problem is as we see even on the GEFS, HP center is way out in the Dakotas. We are relying on an extension to the E of the HP to act as a banana high. Unfortunately, with no blocking and confluence weakening, that extension of HP is going to erode fairly quickly while the main center continues to build SE into the Plains
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We haven't seen this at all this winter where the GFS overdoes the cold push....it never does that
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That 1046mb HP is about as close to perfect as we would want for a system leading in this time of year...maybe just a hair east and north of perfection but close:
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As long as Canada is cold, we are going to continue with threats. Like @JTA66 said, tough to get an all snow event as we push into late Feb and early March, but it certainly is doable. Some years you know its over because Canada is overwhelmed with a PAC firehose, etc. This looks like a winter where we will continue getting chances here and there thru a good chunk of March. It will be a roller coaster with 60s sandwiched between cold snaps and trackable events or vice-versa.
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12z GEFS have improved. Much better confluence and HP with CAD. Most members now sliding underneath us or pretty darn close. 12z CMC is the most suppressed, but even that is close with a small adjustment North.
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Paging @ravensrule, paging @ravensrule....please report to this ^^ post, stat
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12z GFS improvements for next week. Thump to mix to rain. SLP takes better track, HP stronger and better confluence, also faster moving in with the thump. Redevelopment near Hatteras. Wave slides underneath us. Definitely growing support for a mixed event later next week:
