I did a LES chase back in the mid 90s outside of Erie and it was epic....3-4' in 2 days. Strongly considering chasing this one. Not getting any younger.
Usual caveat applies....perfect modeled patterns rarely produce. We've seen this a few times the past few seasons. Archambault....as the pattern sets in and as the pattern relaxes. I mean dont get me wrong, I printed that CFS and am bringing it to bed tonight soooooo yeah.
Only thing I can say right now about long range.....models are throwing chances our way. Probably a few weeks too early for anything major widespread, but the fact that guidance is throwing us chances repeatedly is certainly NOT discouraging right now. Some years we didn't even get digital snow modeled until January, so we take for now.
What could possibly muck this up besides absolutely nothing? This is the period right behind Albedoman's LV snow event that the CMC was bonkers on yesterday.
Kinda liking the loaded pattern at the end of the CMC run. Storm coming out of Plains merging with system in W GOM. Thinking the system around the 16th (Albedoman's LV measurable snowstorm) sets the stage for the followup after the 18th with cold antecedent airmass potentially in place. Cloud talk at this point.
Currently enjoying the beautiful warm sun in Orlando as we prepare for a fun late season subtropical system 'Nicole'. Almost like the lead up to a snowstorm.....OK, not really even close.
Rain here around 3pm then a burst of moderate snow embedded with "mangled flakes" around 345. Yes, definitely wet snow, not hail, not sleet, not graupel, not rabid bunnies falling from the sky.....this was wet snow.
3" on the ground, temps dropping thru the 20s, NW winds gusting to 40. And up to 2" additional with squalls this afternoon/evening.
Best wintry day of the entire season and it comes mid March.....go figure.