Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Im not sure if we will cool off enough by the time it gets to us. Got a couple degrees warmer today than anticipated. Sitting at 44F attm.
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If u believe the HRRR...up to a half an inch could accumulate....mulch or car topper
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Several mesos have a snow squall or snow showers this evening fwiw
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EPS up top also has more of a linkup between the PNA ridge trying to connect with the NAO. Causes some more amplification in the pattern. GEFS has more separation and impulses flying across Canada...closed circulation of the vortex in central Canads halts the linkup on the GEFS
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Thank you for focusing on the ens. I know YOU know this and some others, but i was waiting for someone to come in and claim the GFS op has a full-on Nina look with a racing progressive NS that doesnt have anything to slow it down and amplify it. Of course it is a possible outcome since we are in a Nina, but for now the best bet is use the ens past 5 days or so.
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Thankfully it's the op at long range. Not make any HH friends tonight, fo sho. Nina SER on roids
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Resembles 12z euro from yesterday at surface. Starting to see 2 camps emerging maybe....wound up GL track vs weaker more progressive low tracking closer to our latitude(s). We're pros at playing the "2 camps" game....and we almost never end up on the fail side
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See @WxUSAF post above
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Yep. Need PAC side cooperation if we r going to hit an early season metro snowstorm, ie +PNA, EPO ridge, etc
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EPS mean has a coastal over Hatteras and temps cold enough into SE PA next Friday.
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Only takes a piece of that to eject at the right time to clash with the N Plains energy diving SE. Might not want a big bomb tho, deferring to the pros on that one.
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Thats a hell of a +PNA nosing into the EPO. Definitely a PAC look that would work this time of year.
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Not a fan of seeing a ssw event this early tbh. It is like playing russian roulette with the pattern evolution. Takes the right mix of everything at a strat level to hit the jackpot. But can also muck up what could potentially be something really good. I like it in deep winter when we've had fail after fail just to try and shake things up. Not a huge fan where, for example, CFS and others are showing us headed down the yellow brick road into mid December. Guess it's a chance we have to live with at any time tho.
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When is the reload? 2024ish?
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I see the op has a shortwave leeside of the developing PNA ridge that breaks off and sinks in the SW eventually deep into Mexico. Is this feature prevalent on the eps as an entirely separate entity also or do the more menacing looks on the eps individual members keep that feature moving along the southern jet where it interacts with the clipper-like energy diving SSE? Just curious what role that may play and if the euro op is up to its bias of hanging SJ energy back and cutting off.
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0z Euro towards the end of the run is an eye opener...close miss to our South and East verbatim. I do caution that during the Nina last year the euro op repeatedly teased some big storms out past day 8 that never materialized. Reason i remember is because we crowned the GFS as the new king and we kept asking each other wth happened to the old reliable euro. Maybe this year euro regains the crown.
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We talking full tent mode here?
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Many of us had a lengthy discussion last year and iirc by the end we were in agreement the PAC/Western Canada/Western US is probably more important than just a -NAO. The latter can certainly slow things down and keep systems from completely cutting but without a cold air source due to a crud PAC, a -NAO is 'usually' not going to do it alone. It has happened before and can do so especially as we enter 2nd half winter where those wavelengths between shortwaves shrink.
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Waning La Nina...cooling in Modoki region, solar minimum rebounding, Scandinavian ridging feeding -NAO....just a few of the pieces leading me to believe the Philly metro and nearby areas receive a 10"+ type storm before the winter season ends. Oh, and the WDI of course. But seriously, my research says a larger storm is on tap this year. Piece are there lets see what happens.
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Wasnt terrible for 13 days out tbh. Had the right idea just progged slower (17th vs 15th at time of post) but had the right disturbance and measurable snow in part of the area. GFS is king. Not sold on Thanksgiving weekend....looks like an interior Northeast/New England thang
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I though you were more a Cecily guy? But checking out AJ's pants? Hey to each their own, i dont judge
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Pretty classic....once you get thru the Lehigh tunnel you enter winter.
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My favorite look right there and im one of those that loves seeing -NAO developing from a retrograding Scandinavian ridge. One of those things you look for in a locked in -NAO imo.
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Kind of what i meant to say....feel like when we chase the unicorn tho and it finally materializes ppl have expectations of wall to wall snow from start of pattern thru the breakdown but in reality we get a shot as pattern evolves then another as it subsequently breaks down with minor event chances sprinkled inbetween. Just playing the normal 'temper expectations' game.
