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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Specific forecasting 12 days out almost never works. Doing this in a Nina to boot, bound to fail. All we can do is take general stabs at the pattern via the means, but even those have proven to be somewhat dartboard throws wrt LR.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Same thing almost annualy during a Nina. Ens means rush a good pattern and we kick it til after Christmas. No reason this year should be different. My catch phrase this season so far is "be patient".
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Hate that blob ridge near the Aluetians...."usually"......but with a ridge bridge from the EPO to NAO and a split flow coming onshore western n america, that can overcome the central PAC pig ridge. I like how said ridge (base state?) is feeding the EPO. We take.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Glad to see the GEFS/GFS family of models throwing us some bones.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Happy Thanksgiving wx friends!!
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Ahhh, I was waiting for this. A sure sign we are in for a decent run. Happy Thanksgiving my Southern friends!
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Im going opposite.....(KDYL locale) AN snowfall BN temps. At least one storm 10"+
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Legit concern. Seems in recent Nina's we are always at the mercy of the shred factory. Good post.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    This is becoming a better look up top towards the end of the gefs....better nao location and epo/nao ridge bridge.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    6z GFS op is a great example of the fast flow around the TPV near Hudson Bay and the EPO ridging overwhelming the pattern/flow with BN cold centered of the NE/Mid Atl.. Could be some teases happening after Dec 3ish, but that look, while you may hear yhe term "loaded" being used, is that of a somewhat classic Nina...not a whole lot of amplification happening with the mean NAO ridging being East/Southeast of Greenland. SER is flat....we would actually benefit with some flexing with the loojs up top. We've been down this road often that past few years and we end up pulling our hair out because these fast moving sw's get sheared out under the TPV flow and confluence. Again, not debbing, just using the pattern presented, historic Nina base state, recent years' analogs, and past experience. Ofc every pattern presents differently and has variable nuances. The point here is remain optimistic, and be patient...we're going to get there but 9 times out of 10 we kick the can just a little farther out. Maybe this can be the 1 where we surprise and hit early?
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    I can see blockiness continuing to build at HL as we enter first week of December. Most ens support this. Some of the signals we are seeing wrt to big ridge in the PAC is maybe trying to nose into the EPO region way out towards the end of the ens means. I can see it getting BN cold in response to that EPO ridge. With the TPV trying to anchor near Hudson Bay, this flow has the look of a cold, fast, progressive Northern jet. Think clippers. Does anyone here remember those? Been so long. Im skeptical and I can see it getting BN cold/dry for a bit early Dec. Out beyond the end of the ens means? Your guess is as good as mine. And as we know, things can turn on a dime in weather. Just feel this reload or whatever you want to call it may take a bit longer than we want. But hey, it is still pre-Thanksgiving sooooo we got a long way to go.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Patience is a virtue.....boys, we may be waiting a while again this year. Some folks are saying the pattern will rollover early/mid dec. Maybe it will, maybe not. I prefer to look at the ens means at range and not really much furher than that. Might get bored in this pattern and end up lookong at the weeklies/monthlies for some sense of hope. For now, ens means unanimous in locking in that pig ridge in the central PAC and repeatedly feeding/reloading the Aleutian ridge. Again, we want a trof there preferably to pump heights out west (+PNA). The NAO is stout but probably doesnt help centered SE of Greenland.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    <crickets>Its that time of year we're just about due for a poll on merging subforums</crickets>
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS has been King during Ninas, not surprised
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    This^^
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    It's cold-ish and windy outside. 30F wind chills upper teens/low 20s.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Not a whole lot suggesting that Pac ridge progresses eastward or poleward. It seems in the last 10 years when that feature has flexed in Nov-Dec that it has real staying power. All tied to the MJO and we know how getting a favorable MJO progression in recent years has been like pulling teeth.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Btw, i dont think those maps are particularly mild or torch looks. Not with a -NAO. But it also doesnt look Vodka cold either. We need better looks out West thru a good chunk of Dec and even early Jan if we are going to score. Just my thoughts.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Looking forward, it appears on the ens means that we are heading towards more of a Nina look with a fast moving Northern jet and SER with more of a -PNA look out west. GEPS is the least Nina-ish fwiw. Needless to say, a hostile PAC side probably wont work out for us, especially in late Nov/early Dec. Where and when the pattern heads after this is up for debate. It does appear the -NAO has some staying power....but watch the Atlantic crap the bed once the PAC turns less hostile. This has been a repeated theme over the past several years....tough to get both sides working in tandem. Doesnt matter quite as much late in the season where we can cash in on crud patterns with shorter wavelength between systems. What irks me on the ens that ALSO is showing that it may be a base state feature this year is, once again, the central PAC positive 500 anomaly blob that keeps trying to feed an Aleutian ridge. We need to see neg anomalies in the Aleutians, not the opposite. So after some BN weather, it appears after Thanksgiving weekend that things relax and 'hopefully' are setting up for a reload (?) during the first half of Dec.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Some lazy fkakes falling....and so it begins
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Temps nosediving down to 40F now
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    My wife and i have been looking at homes/jobs leeside of the Lakes....anywhere from Westfield NY to Buffalo and my holy grail...Redfield, NY. Sometime in the next 10 years we hope.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Jealous as f:
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Never heard of him.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    And just like that, temp dropped to 42F
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