Ralph Wiggum

PNA spike and deep west based NAO and TPV roaring underneath could also be too much of a good thing ie cold but dry. But alas, all conjecture at this range and MUCH better than zero HL blocking and a hostile PAC. It isnt a shut the blinds pattern fo sho

But to answer your question, I personally want to see it under 120 hrs....that look verbatim. Agreed tho, that is about as close to an ideal look as we are gonna get on a means at that range.

Ooops, i thought that was a pants tent emoji

Obviously my memory isnt what it once was I do recall LC that year (he was a local philly met at that time) noting repeatedly about some volcanic ash that year which played a role in the atmosphere pattern over the N hemi.

iirc, prior to winter 95-96 there was an eruption of Mt Pinatubo. And mets correlated the harsh Nina winter in part to this same hypothesis this scientist has noted.

I approve of this post!

Congrats on getting selected! This was a very cool read....well-done.

Off topic: I really hope the Eagles dont play down to GB. Need a complete effort. Rodgers can still steal a game from a snoozing defense. Dont think that will happen, but this game has trap written all over it imo.

NFC east is insane right now.

Well, since you brought it up, I will gladly take a Boxing Day redux....of course I would want this sub to partake as well.

Watch us get too much of a good thing now....we smoke cirrus in mid Dec while Jacksonville gets plastered.

Shame its the OP. All pieces seem to be there. Even have to neg anomalies in the GOM with the pseudo 50/50 in place that isnt going too far with the massive ridge

About 3 weeks too early.

Going to play the patience game. Some AN temp stuff coming before we start seeing the SER knocked down by successive waves plowing across as the TPV sets up in S Central Canada and the pig NAO ridge takes shape. BN likely after Dec 6th-ish but more than likely our legit shots at frozen accumulating precip will begin several days following the cold air getting established. Middle third of the month (Dec 10-20) is where the pattern progression would take us for a legit winter weather threat.

This SER flex has been modeled well imo. There was always a 4-8 day stretch where it was shown to pump (even link briefly with the NAO?) before getting beat down. Ive been riding the patience train and keep reminding folks that it will be after the 6th that we can start looking at some colder weather. Now whether that gets kicked out to mid dec and beyond, who knows? But the SER flex and period of AN has always been there on the ens. It is also this feature that allows waves to track along the boundary/gradient when the waves start marching across.

Probability maps are by far the most accurate and reliable form of LR modeling that we have at our disposal.

Agreed. Im wondering if the traditional Nina shred factory will be in play or if Chuck's -PNA actually helps to offset the fast flow under the TPV in south central Canada.

And probably the last of 2022

We are going to remember this December....either as a LR ens tease that never produced OR as a wintry Dec. Im leaning towards the latter.

Someone needs to add the Bob Chill emoji to the like button selections. That is pants tent worthy.

Also, as noted in my home sub, there is a neg 500 anomaly wobbling around and trying to move near the Aleutians towards the tail end of the GEFS run. Something else to watch that could prove beneficial as we move into the 2nd week Dec.

Fwiw, if you believe the GEFS in a general macroscale pattern progression, you can see a negative 500 anomaly wobbling itself around and getting near the Aleutians towards the end of the LR while the NAO ridge is pretty much anchored in place. As Paul (Chescowx) would say....buckle up. Just to add, other ens are eerily similar wrt to HL pattern but I feel the GEFS family has had better verification at LR during Ninas. No numbers to prove it, just going off past experience.

Ens means are starting to whet my appetite after Dec 6ish. Lots of HL blocking, a nosing EPO ridge, split flow off the West Coast, TPV where we want to see it. Trying to keep myself in check. Might not have to be patient *too* long....matter of time guys. NCEP progs have the NAO tanking. Probably will start seeing digital chances appearing soon on guidance for after the 6th.