Ralph Wiggum

Deja Vu of last year already. Watching the EPS show a stellar pattern after 300 hours, everyone getting bricked up about it, then watching the EPS caving to the GEFS under 150 hrs is pure comedy honestly. If we kick the can enough times and are patient enough, eventually we will cash in. It might be the coming week, mid month, late month, or even Jan or Feb. But im optimistic with the blocking we are seeing at HL that we will get our chances and will reap the rewards of being patient. ...eventually. i still like dec 10-20 window. I know thats a broad range but with all the changes happening under the nao block, we just cant know.

We're also going to require a credit card on file for security purposes, your birthday, copy of your drivers license, and ss # please.

Thats purdy! Now lets start getting these eps looks post 300 hours to start moving up in time.

Bingo

^^^Real balancing act between the SER flex, a lobe of the TPV sliding along in S Canada, and the NAO. Not going to have the details worked out for another 5 days imo then a couple days to fine tune.

Wave to keep an eye on. Hints among all models but results vary from a southern slider to a nice clean easy event in this region, to a SNE cash-in.

Nice look again in the eps LR. Would be cool to see this start moving up in time and not stuck out past 300hrs+ but you know the game....these looks are great on paper but it's the slightly flawed pattern perfection where we actually cash in (9th-10th ie?)

As per usual as well, something will eventually pop-up in the short-range while the focus in the discussion thread may be focused on the LR.

Mods should add this to hand out like they used to weenie tags:

P05

Thats why alot of folks here believe in taking the guidance with the least favorable solution. Nothing scientific to it but it helps keep people's wx hobby expectations in check. And ironically it seems to work that way 9 times out of 10. Of course if youre a pro forecaster that isnt the preferred method

Continuing the theme of late autumn and now into met winter, patience is going to be required. What we are seeing on the ens is a mix of variability and 'unicorn' pattern morphing in the LR. While the NAO is still likely to develop and has already begun to do so, we are seeing changes up top as well as increased flex in the SER in the medium range. The weaker and quick-to-fade TPV that last week's ens were showing as a bowling ball setting up over Hudson Bay is one of the key players that is throwing fits at winter wx freaks. A strong TPV over HB can help knock down a SER and we sort of rely on this during a Nina. Without this (and other pieces) the SER can continue to bulge and remain a base state wrt a Nina pattern. Couple this with a strongly retrograding NAO ridge and this often times leads to a link between these 2 features putting things on 'hold' until a catalyst comes along to help out. This could be a PNA ridge, a TPV building S near HB, or a favorable MJO phase (which ties in the PNA). As noted before Thanksgiving, that pig ridge in the PAC that keeps feeding a ridge over the Aleutians isnt going to make many friends....though at times it CAN feed the EPO which bumps the TPV into more of a favorable position. However, this can also lead to cold and dry episodes. So, it is a real balancing act we try to work with during Ninas. What we are seeing on the GEFS is more of a move towards SER/NAO interaction, transient PNA ridging, a split flow off the WC with stj connection, weakned TPV, and more robust central PAC blob ridge. Needless to say, this isnt a be all-end all deal. There is plenty of support for the -NAO/-AO hanging strong. And this bodes well as we get deeper into winter. Without those HL ridges as a base state this winter, we would probably be shutting the blinds for chunks at a time. BUT, if the HL blocking continues as a background phase, then we will be able to have chances as this balances out the less favorable teleconnections. Long-winded and probably not the clearest or most well-worded writeup, but a few points.....dont chase unicorn patterns particularly in a Nina in the LR, temper expectations even when good looks begin to show in the MR, and be patient. I cannot emphasize that last one enough. We usually need to wait for the NAO to relax/reload to score and even then, it isnt a lock. Cant tell you how many times we've seen good patterns come and go with little or nothing to show. But with that said, if the NAO/AO continue to reload this winter, the odds if cashing in will increase. Going to take some time and a little (lot?) of luck.

It says "experimental"?

And just to put folks at ease I want to add, both GEFS and EPS have very workable looks. Just details in the PNA, the SER, the TPV, and NAO depth/location. Not a shut the blinds pattern or shutout signal on either respective model.

I'll play devil's advocate here and urge caution. EPS did this last year where it was rock solid and the LR GEFS waffled around. Ironically, the most consistent EPS was being consistently inaccurate and when we would get within about D+8 the GEFS would hone in on a solution and the 'slow to budge' EPS stubbornly and slowly caved numerous times. Different season of course so who knows. But the GFS family has generally handled Ninas a little better wrt LR ens. Gambling sharps would say bet the consistent trend tho, right?

Yep. I was just going to add this. The whole ser linkage thing is likely temporary if it even happens at all. It is always a balancing acting with pieces in motion. The more stable look is up top at HL as has been discussed ad nauseum. So i hope nobody took my ppst as being negative whatsoever. Again, a balancing act as always. Some features will flex and be transient, others will be more stable. I as well as many have a rather optimistic outlook on what may happen moving forward.

5 or 6 straight runs post dec 7 it is weaker. Again, just something to monitor, not the end times Eta: and it may not even make a huge difference tbh as the ser already is getting beat down by that time. Matter of how quickly it flexes again

We usually dont rely on Miller A types or storms coming out of the GOM during Ninas. That ridge reflection is a base state im fairly certain. And wrt your other post, yes the linkage between the NAO and SER isnt unheard of and certainly could be one possibility. Of more importance to me is we are losing that strong TPV near Hudson that ens were showing being almost stationary. That feature was allowing waves/fronts to keep plowing underneath and was heliping to flatten the SER. Something else to keep an eye on. Things could be a million times worse, theres a reason teleconnection perfection is rare.

Btw, anyone else notice the pseudo 50/50 signal trending on the GEFS? Just thought that was a cool feature to see on a smoothed means at range:

Why is it nonsense? Pretty common in a Nina. We are always fighting the SER and a general trof on the West coast. Especially given the GEFS is trending rhat direction, it isnt out of the question and is a possibility. Eta: not saying it's correct. Just saying it could go this way. Have to wait and watch

Which is favorable during a Nina. Unless you like cold/dry and a suppressed storm track.

Still eyeing the middle third of December (10th-20th) for our first legit threat(s) of the season. Not much has morphed/changed wrt the overall pattern progresslon being advertised on the ens means. Scandinavian ridge feeds large negative NAO, EPO ridge noses poleward, TPV migrates into classic positon near Hudson bay, signal for PNA to go neutral/positive with split off the West coast. And now we are starting to see the ops spit out some storms in that period that coincide with the ens means pattern depictions. Trackable times arent far off. ^^a sample of what the ops are starting to tease

There's a reason he didnt get his contract renewed in Philly.