Ralph Wiggum

ICON at 150 resembles the GFS 6z at the surface:

I noted elsewhere, the higher heights during this time moving wward from NAO to S Central Canada is now connecting with the PNA on the op centered over Rockies. Looping the past 4 runs has been eye opening wrt this feature and is one of the keys in this working.

We'll see changes in about 3 hours im certain.

@greenskeeper is lurking and tossing weenies....direct correlation between this and snowfall potential.

See my other posts but the +higher heights (some calling it blocking) retrogresses from NAO wward to S Central Canada (eventually feeding the EPO). GFS times this higher height movement West in tandem with a vort moving underneath. Same time these higher heights try and connect with a ridge centered over the Rockies. Unlikely it times perfectly like this, but even more odd it was 2 runs in a row.

Exactly. Gfs at 130ish hours ago had a potent coastal for today with 60kt winds along the coast. Sunshine out my window here

Santa wants to come to town. Thats a woofer right there:

6z gfs was a weenie run...at least 3 chances with another maybe largest threat brewing for late Dec 25ish. Not going to play out like this whatsoever but the model is feeling the effects of the pattern and reflecting in it's progs.

6z is a weenie run...chance after chance.

Ensembles continue to trend with the pattern and the gfs op seeing the pattern in effect. 6z delivers: Catalyst is the PNA popping out west. Watch the trends here as the NAO acrually retracts and retrogrades West eventually to the epo beyond this. Said +heights link up with a ridge centered over the Rockies. Really cool to watch the trends here and textbook how the NAO relaxes briefly as all this happens:

Exactly as many of us have been harping on....patience because the anchoted stout NAO is pretty colors and all that jazz but it is the the start. its actually the relax/reload where we usually see storms pop.

And again the trend continues noted in my previous post. Watch the NAO and watch the retrogression of +height anonalies and how the connect with the PNA centered over the Rockies. Good trend nice to see. Still timing matters as all this unfolds up top allowing this storm to evolve.

Your concept is basically weather wishcasting by weenies FOR weenies? I freaking love it!

If you go back and compare the GEFS for example wrt "the block" (higher heights in the NAO), the NAO is actually waning/reloading while ridging is retrograding up top across the bridge from NAO>AO>EPO. Its quite the balancing act and all about timing. On this loop, pay attention to the trends near Greenland with ridging. Ironically, the energy underneath that we are looking at wrt any storm moves into a better looking position near us. It appears the better positioning of the energy moving thru the East is in part to some weak ridging trends centered over the Rockies also related to the retrogression of the HL "blocking" from NAO westward across Canada. You can also see a bit of a connection trying to happen with the higher heights in S Central Canada and the ridging near the Rockies. So all one big balancing/timimg act and imho not an easy way to score along the coast or the big cities in mid Dec. Prefer more of a clean wave movement along a boundary under a more stable NAO regime than trying to play the timing game as things shift around, but we just cant know yet. Just to add, the longer range EPO on steroids and weaker NAO (still negative mind you) with TPV hanging underneath has me being grateful for the colder anomalies finally, but also pondering progressive/cold/dry theme coming after next week. More on that later.

Just a few days ago we were looking at major warmth for Christmas week across guidance. Another flip-flop. We should get thru this week and next before jumping 336+ hours. That IS quite the unicorn on the GEPS tho ngl

Paul Kocin would approve

Been bed ridden for 8 days with covid and finally up and out feels like i just woke from a coma. Hits everyone differently i guess.

Ffs im under a rock. Why am i dating everything dec 2 today? Ty for noting this....lock it in!

Problem is, it isnt a true block, more of a stout ridge. Big difference there. Ens werent very accurate with this 12+ days out. Now they are showing a big EPO /AO /NAO ridge bridge same time frame D+13 (again, mind you) so Im tentatively skeptical until we see this move into days 7-8ish. Past ninas LR ens have made many hobbyists and even pros look like suckers. Be cautious js.

I dont disagree necessarily but here we are again 13 days out showing an EPO / AO / NAO ridge bridge. 0-1 pitch coming.

Enjoy Gibson he was pretty solid for the Phillies. Geound ball guy, low home runs

Just made a post in Philly wrt EPO. You already know this but a raging epo ridge at any time but particularly in a Nina could be good and bad depending on how the Nina SER decides to behave. We could certainly get the boundary in a prime spot pending the SER but too much flex and we are shredding too little flex (flat) and we are sliding/shredding. Right in the middle and we might have a winner. I terested to see how this change pans out. Eta: lets just get the cold established for now. One thing at a time yes?

Energy not wasted at all. Appreciate the engagement in a constructive discussion. Thanks for your research.

Chuck im fine with a neutral or pos PNA. Im not a huge fan of seeing the EPO flex tho as it brings back memories of some past Nina's that were just cold/dry with a shred factory under us. We want the PNA to do as you noted and will monitor this but moreso keeping tabs on the EPO that ens are starting to flex. Eta: and with the tendencies for higher heights at high lat already being persistent this season, the EPO flex is a definite possibility. We could go warm/wet to cold dry back and forth. We will have chances but are going to need patience. We could be grinding teeth for periods.

Until the PNA cooperates, the way it appears to my old eyes is the EPO ridge forces the cold in behind these powerful fronts pushing the PJ underneath us. Thats obviously an ingredient we need. But in a Nina base we are always fighting the SER and the flow around it. So when the cold is plowing thru it fights against the SE ridge that wants to flex. This can work with neutral PNA (minus a raging EPO ridge) and we can cash in on gradient or boundary waves which is a more common pattern that can produce. But from my experience when we fight a -PNA and rely on a strong -EPO alone, we generally go cold/dry with sheared out systems under us. Not making a forecast on this but saying we want the -PNA to ease and not rely solely on a stout -EPO on the Pac side....otherwise we can get too much of a good thing (cold). We should be watching the ens and cpc to see what is going to happen with the PNA. A weak split off the W Coast could help too and there is sone promise down the road.