Ralph Wiggum

GEFS and EPS just a little different in the LR wrt PNA/NAO: The GEFS have been better in the extended but I will just say this...the sudden flip around mid month the GEFS shows sort of fits a Nina after an ECS. Ive been saying we are going to have small windows sandwiched between reloads and dirtier looks and this period fits the mold....if the GEFS are even right. Jan 96...pattern flip right after and tstorm the next week. Jan 2016 good window then flipped a few days after. Am I suggesting a big storm right before or around mid month? Maybe, since several members have been signaling something 11th-14th. My theory could be inaccurate but I seem to remember in past Ninas we tend to flip PNA after a storm and subsequent melt-off. The GEFS mean just prior to the big flip: Let's not forget shorter term tho....could see flakes as early as Thursday/Friday in spots with another wave right on it's heels.

Happy New Year!

Happy 2023!

GFS is threading the needle for Friday. Light event but something. Verbatim probably issues accumulating due to precip intensity and warmish surface going in. That's the Euro and gfs on board for now. Eta: cmc on board but different looks more like a norlun waiting for UL energy to catch up to it Happy New Year!!

I guess we have progressed from PAC firehose to describe the jet extension into the West Coast to "atmospheric river"? Atmospheric River

7 tds in 7 minutes. Wild !!

P30 would be accurate in a normal year.

First I don't trust precip type maps especially at this range still. Also, I think those colder temps bleed in and most precip falls prior thus why the algorithm is showing it as cold rain/wet flakes

EPS on board with the pattern progression now as well. Showed hints past few runs but finally jumped all-in with the EPO, quasi CPF, split out west, deep stj coming south of Baja under the pna, lower height anomalies in the se quadrant of the country, near normal temps.

Feel better man. Get it out of our systems now tho....plenty of Jebwalks coming up this month. Starting to see many of the pros jumping on board too so that's a good sign.

Euro setting up another event 2 days later.

Euro is actually a pretty decent little event. First accumulating for much of this subforum. 24 hours worth of on/off light/mod snow. Let's go!!!

Invoking the Jan 96 analog, eh? I knew I liked you for a reason. Make it happen captain. LFG!!

Euro gives some flakeage Jan 5th and 6th to parts. Norlun style. No way this fails. If we can't Norlun, we can't nothin

Euro gives us flakes on the 5th-6th....wiggum rule is down but not out Norlun trof style. We excel at these

My electric budget is 130/mo and I have oil heat and propane hot water My oil budget? Don't even want to talk about that. My wife likes 68-70 degrees and this 100+ year old farm house is far from energy efficient. Drafts everywhere. Even the kitchen cabinets are drafty. Can't wait til my kids graduate and I can move out of this school district (council rock) and into a modern rancher.

Away from (the) keyboard

Bro, 16 weenies?!?! That's gotta be close to a record

Been afk for a while. Just wanted to say, I endorse this look on the 12z GEFS

To all my Southern friends here....Happy New Year's (Eve)!! Celebrate with me!

This is a solid look. Pattern progression mimicking past 4 weeks. Should see legit opportunities by mid month latest and moving forward from there. Is @The Icemanstill on a bridge preparing to jump? Wish he would see the light.

Yo bud....doctors orders....well, not a real doc but a few buddies from this forum. Seems to be working, just woke from a slumber. LR gefs looks pretty amazing. Patience.

Discussing it elsewhere I'm not sure it was 'missed'. I didn't post on it because frankly people think when we mention it we r writing off winter and grasping at straws....which is quite the contrary.

Not really a shock. All global ens has the SSWE showing up for a few days. SPV taking a pummeling.