Ralph Wiggum

I misinterpreted both posts as meaning 2 opposing views thus the confused emoji. I like where the GFS headed.

I vote yea on this being the name of the system

Looks to me via the h5 vort charts that a lobe of that 50/50 remains trapped under the nao and regressed back and dives into the ull energizing the system. We just cant know at this point....very convoluted look. Could be 2 separate things or one drawn out event.

Time to dust off the H5 vorticity maps. You can see among the big 3 the major differences. The euro and cmc which are hits have a ridge amplify in the PNA which as noted yesterday is one of the keys to making this whole thing work. Allows for a more consolidated look downtream and energy digs and phases into one closed ull. The GFS on the other hand looks confused as to which sw to focus on since the flow upstream remains flat. If you loop the gfs it has a really more chaotic look than other guidance with different votices moving every direction and a general flat flow. Going to be a long week of tracking with such a convoluted pattern and anyone that tells you today they have it figured out is simply wishcasting.

6z gfs is a slight improvement....stopped the bleeding. A 3 major models show the fine line we are walking between too little spacing and a slider that cannot amplify with no mechanism to turn the corner, decent spacing with no ridge out west so farther n and a hair late to turn the corner, and near perfect tining where the sustem geys captured and pulled up the coast and stalling under the nao. Not much breathing room tbh between the system escaping S and E with a light event here or getting captured and a stalled bomb. Tbh, middle of the road seems like a good bet at this point and ens means support this. CMC like solution makes the most sense given the evolving pattern....a little something for all of us, some mixing near 95. Not a forecast....just middle of the pack which generally is a good rule of thumb with these variable progs attm. Fits mid Dec climo pretty good as well.

Pseudo quasi semi hybrid Miller ABC just for the record

If it makes you feel better, the GFS recently had that upgrade, so wrt if it helped or hurt the model, we just cant know yet.

JMA is an interior beat down:

Here's lookin at you kid:

I feel like the last winter storm warning was 2016. I know that isnt true but feels like it. They truly are few and far between anymore or at least thats my perception.

The moral is, the farther N you go generally does better with miller b's. There are exceptions of course like anything but thats a pretty good rule of thumb.

I dont go by snow maps 6 days out, use the upper air charts at this range. I deleted my post intentionally as interior and North does ok. SE PA the norm. We take for mid Dec. Lots of time.

Hopefully we arent in a redux of 2021 where the GFS/GEFS led the way and the Euro/GGEM kept slowly caving.

Sheared and shredded. Nina theme. Patience. Throw enough chances one will work. Lets get thru the next 7 days eh?

12z gefs shared from Mid Atl:

Take this and run:

I'll take this look 6 days out all the time on the GEFS:

Confluence and flat jet ripping. No pna ridge this run. Shred factory....one of those wrenches in a Nina. Hopefully just a fluke run but is a possibility of course.

Biggest change out west wrt pna. Buries energy out in the West this run....little to no pna ridging vs 6z.

Primary dying a quick death. Good trends all around so far.

The 50/50 is really doing its thing. Folks, we have a legit trackable event.

CMC is tucked....mix to rain. Trended colder tho and more coastal signature.

Isnt this the storm window that DT put out an ALEET for last week?