Ralph Wiggum

It is weakening, but you know how this works by now...the primary almost never dies as quickly as models suggest especially in the extended range. They almost always hang on for dear life and muck up the forecast in the big cities and lowlands. Also a function of the new low not developing as fast. Combo of the two.

Been trending the wrong way? Still time but you are trying to thread the needle for your area. You weenied me prior but seriously, go with climo in these tightrope walks.

What could have been a decent ice breaker (no pun intended) for SE PA late week has morphed into a cold mostly rain event here aside from some brief frozen at the onset. Far interior and elevated areas will see more wet snow and mixing. Remember when the primary was progged to quickly weaken and transfer to the coast? What a difference a day makes wrt the primary low:

Climo.

Not loving the setup for the late week system. Antecedent stale airmass, long SE fetch out ahead, mid levels toasty. Certainly looks more wet than white for the lowlands and I95. Maybe we can squeeze out some wet flakes or mix for a bit. Very much interested in the pattern evolution as we head into the week leading up to Christmas (and possibly farther out as well). EPO-/AO-/NAO-/PNA+....this would be one heck of a global model(s) fail if they all had the tellies wrong. But even if 1 is off, the pattern is loaded. Core of cross polar flow starts out in the western US then slowly bleeds east which is actually preferred vs a direct polar blast that overwhelms the flow and forces suppression. Split flow off the W Coast, active STJ, jet max under us. Buckle up....our patience may pay off soon. Going to start seeing discrete events showing up on guidance. Dec 22-26 is showing up as one such period that bears watching.

All the pro mets are on this one and have been for a few days so it must be right. No more can kicking or fake threats....LFG!!

I got Det +6.5 / TB + 7.5 Took Gints +7 separate. Hate to ever go against the Bird but.

Just a random thought/observation. I do like how we are 'stepping down' to a colder regime rather than relying on one massive polar blast overwhelming everything. At least thats the way it appears for now. On another somewhat related note, LR gefs is sorta drool worthy but alas....lets move it up in time.

Have they really ever been wrong tho? Lock it in!

Can anyone explain to me, umm i mean my 11 year old daughter, what EAMT is? This is one of the atmo / geo physics things Ive read and tried to decipher but am struggling with understanding for the life of me. Explain it like youre talking to my 11 year old.

Seeing my forecasts on FB pop up in my "memories" from 2013 makes me nostalgic. You know.....when December was actually a winter month. Already had 2 or 3 legit events under our belts by this time.

Dont stoke the fire. You know darn well how hard it is to get one of those that you labeled let alone get one during a Nina to come up the coast. Now half of these folks are going to be hunting for it and expecting it. Youre the devil at times I swear lol

Morphing into a fropa across guidance. Im sure we havent seen the last of the changes tho either. Hopefully those epic looks in the LR for the week leading up to Christmas hold. Has the look of cold but dry. Supression concerns? But what do I know? Is Lucy warming up for an extended appearance?

Saw that myself. Not just the gfs. Past few Nina years have had plenty of these unfortunately.

Sure, thats a more typical miller b (is that what we r categorizing this as?) scenario ie TN Valley. But for the lowlands, where is the antecedent cold air source that we require? The quasi 50/50 can only do so much with what it has to work with. We are relying on an almost perfect situation where the system either bombs out and becomes dynamics-driven to help those near the fall line. Im not forecasting 33 and rain for everyone. Im actually pretty optimistic that many places see their first frozen of the season.

Dying....weakening...stationary and just "rotting" away. Transferring it's energy to the newly developing low near coastal NC.

Not sure how many times it has been posted, but it isnt the track. It is a primary rotting 800-900 miles NW of the redevelping low. It isnt a rapid jump either so you get a SE flow at mid levels for some 800+ miles. That is going to roast the mids, that is meteo 101 stuff. You dont have rapid redevelopment and bombogenesis happening. We have been down this road numerous times in recent years (not this exact setup) where we get a perfect storm track but the antecedent airmass is stale and it rains. Hopefully most places can at least some frozen for the first time this season. Interior elevations should feel pretty good attm.

It looks dare i say ideal? We dont want the core of anomalous cold centered over us. Those maps in tandem are ideal...there, I said it.

My bad I must be thinking of something else. I really dont follow LV much...you guys could have 50" on the season so far and I would probably be oblivious. All is well my friend. Lets hope at some point this winter we can both cash in together.

I think it is more tho than just the handoff and the track verbatim. Even a perfect track is playing with fire in the i95 corridor and even just slight n and w mainly because of the prolonged SE fetch out ahead. You have a rotting primary somewhere in the midwest with the nao forcing redevelopment way far S and e away from said primary. Especially without an anomalously cold antecedent airmass, those mid levels are going to get toasted most likely. But as you said, lots of time to fine tune. If i were in elevated interior areas i would be bricked up after 12z fr fr.

Re euro, handoff happens plenty far south.... a little more east would be gold.....white gold.

Keep in mind, the CMC notoriously runs cold fwiw. Otoh, the GFS used to run too cold also but the latest ugrade package was suppised to address this. Not sure how relevant this might be but figured I would at least make note.

Not sure why you mention me re: wishcasting. Guilty conscience? Also, historic analogs arent super reliable esp given the ever changing climate. Hard to broadbrush, just my opine. Lastly, this is the 3rd or 4th time youve called for a 4"+ storm up your way a week or more out. How's that working out? Asking legit, I dont follow snowfall to date where you're located.

Tucked clustering. Means is nice tho.

EPS agrees and continues to show i95 mix line with a pummeling farther N and W. Makes sense....we all know the climo here along the fall line.