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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Many pro LR forecasters had January shaping up like this...a big 'thaw' period. It is probably going to be a backloaded season as we are accustomed to in a Nina and we arr going to have to be patient. Like you said tho...it's way out there but the great looks are going to shift around at some point. The Dec -AO/-NAO base is a good signal tho for returning periodically so even if it happens as you noted, I doubt we are done with the +heights at HL for the year.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Same goes with the CMC that had a bomb yesterday. A possibility but not a likelihoof. Referring to ops past 6 days or so. Within 5 days is a decent frame to start putting more weight in the global ops as a very general rule of thumb.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    The ops is also not very reliable in a Nina pattern in that range. Not saying its wrong but I would go with the eps over the ops at this point tbh. Total outlier attm.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    I recall something like this up here in the nearby Philly burbs. Had to be mid 80s (83, 84 or 85?). I remember going to school at 7am pouring rain...cats and dogs stuff. Flash flooding, streams in roads. Remember it vividly. When we left school at 3:15pm everything was rock solid 3" ice in spots. Unreal stuff. Wish I could figure out exact date and see historic progs of that.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Well, we have more than a week to track so it will change numerous times. As for the GL low, very rarely do we get a winter wx event without that feature. It is common. We dont see it with clippers of course...but when was the last time we had a legit Alberta Clipper? I seriously cannot remember. They are a thing of lore these days that we tell our kids and grandkids about. If you have the 1st KU NE winter storm book, a good majority of those had the GL low. That feature doesnt always spell gloom and doom.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    As expected, GEFS made marked improvement out west with the pna axis as well as a better coastal signature. So the op can suck an avocado.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Thats probably when we cash in with a fluke event. You know how it works.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Leaves stj sw out in NM this run.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    So close let run finish. Gefs will have some hits
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    ?? GFS made improvements letting the stj sw escape and not plowing the trof into the western US like prior runs. Its the op tho but still improved. Sets up better for later near Christmas imho just based verbatim on the op.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Ayoooo bro why you dissing the big guy like that?
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    So you believe the TPV dropping into Southern CA? Go with the ens dude you know better. Ens are better, not quite honkable but certainly trackable.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC is going bonkers next week.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    ^^I find these kuchera maps not quite as accurate and often deceptive. Ive been using the positive snow depth change maps and they are generally pretty spot-op in comparison. Especially when mixing is involved like the Thursday event. Keeps expectations more realistic as well.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    But when it starts to moderate look out. People will likely take that as kicking the can if we do go cold/dry which in actuality it is not. It's a practice in patience. Those that have been here for a while know these are the risks we take. Get the cold in place....thats always phase 1. We will accomplish that portion it seems certain. Eta: by no means am i punting next week whatsoever. Just replying to the op topic re: coldest anomalies post christmas
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    That 994mb primary low really killed this next threat for i95 and the lowlands. Brief mix at the onset in extreme SE PA then a cold rain. Lehigh Valley should hang on to mostly frozen as this is mainly an interior and elevation event.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Pretty sweet look. Lack of 50/50 doesnt concern me with that look up top. Would those higher heights at 50/50 act in essence to slow things down?
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Only in a Nina bud....oh wait
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    The big ones are always modeled 10 days out. Weenie handbook chapter 11 section 5 subsection A.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Whats happening here? Im at work so just briefly looked at the euro, cmc, and gfs (maybe i peeked at the jma too) and things look darn good/active for next week. I pop in banter and Ji says no blue, and talks of suppression about and Nina being Nina and no hope. Oh wait, i forgot that was normal. Ok cool, sorry to clog the thread
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    JMA has the storm a couple days early on the 20th. Heavy snows inland but warm i95 fwiw which aint much
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Agreed 100%. If we dont have snow cover by then and that cold/dry look verifies, gonna be alot of frustrated weenies. It may very well end up being the relax from those departures that we eventually key-in on?
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Btw, this ^^^ is also the reason that expectations should always stay in-check. Just because an ens means may show a gorgeous west based nao block, alot still needs to come together properly for a snow event, especially along the i95 corridor. That said, I would still rather have the HL looks we are seeing so far this season and take my chances with that rather than all blues and lp up North. Throw us enough chances and we will cash in. Patience rules in a Nina, period.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    A few days ago the ens had better HL ridging spread all along the Southern Canada/US border. This was when we were seeing better redevelopment and quicker transfer: Fast forward to now and you see that ridging pulled N and is more consolidated as a 'block' near Baffin. That isnt a horrible look but it allows for the primary to stay in tact longer. Sure it may help the new low tick S and E, but the mid levels are torched for the lowlands and it would take a bomb to recover the mids quickly enough:
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    Partly yes. And still early esp given the warm atlantic. Patience.
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