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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS morphing into yet another different evolution wrt NS and SS, phase, and timing. Maybe we end up backing into a low end or moderate event ftw.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    18z is rolling. I think in the back of our heads we know what to expect. But LFG!!
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    North trend?
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    In my outlook I said we would have 1 MECS of 10"+ this year....maybe we will, maybe we won't. But I guarantee you I will treat this event as if it will be the last flakes I ever see.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Best event of the season:
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    SE PA and parts of NJ just got NAM'd for Sunday night.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Data sampling I understand. So there are no instruments gathering PAC data at the moment?
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Go with the indica and sleep thru 18z....it's probably a healthier choice.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    What is this stuff you keep saying about data not being sampled properly? Is this seriously still a thing in 2023?
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    No cold air...no 50/50 low
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    It is mind boggling to watch the snow line recede across the Eastern US as we approach peak climo
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    50/50 failed us with the December threat. See no reason for this evolution to differ.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Can I cash out now on the inside runner looks and take my little bit of winnings I made?
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    JMA is in the GFS camp wrt more NS interaction this run. Also a tucked or inside runner look at the surface. Lack of cold air still a problem
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Euro op is an unmitigated disaster.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Perturbation 21 for me....11 for @CAPE and my parents in Cape May.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    I literally just noted this 850 in another sub. Bingo!
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    I mean, we couldn't ask for a much better 850 low pass for our areas than what the gefs mean is showing. It's all textbook tbh:
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    SSWE looks to happen late Jan or early Feb. CfS has plenty of cold next month in Canada and a decent pattern for March....so we will probably get more chances at times both of those months.....of course windows sandwiched in-between warmth.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Antecedent airmass sucks. Not enough cold reestablished in SE Canada yet and zero snowpack most of the Northeast even into SE Canada....and that matters. We should hope for a full phased properly timed dynamic system that can create 850 cold on the NW flank with a proper track. Basically a thread the needle....and we know how that goes. But with a week+ to go, maybe we can morph this into a legit winter storm threat. Maybe.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Ukie has a decent setup...but its the crazy uncle. Still just over a week to go. There will be MANY more changes.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    I mean, if we are morphing towards a more dynamic and phased event then in a few days we could legit start talking about the system dynamics manufacturing cold air. That isn't out of the question N and W with a properly timed phase. Seeing a few different ways this evolves including some interesting morph possibilities on some ops.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    And the i95 weenies step back from the ledge
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    I'll take that 973mb low due east of Assateague Island any mid January regardless of temps progged at 7-8 day lead time
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