Ralph Wiggum

Looking forward to the gefs to see if the op has any support. I mean, the gefs has been heading this way past 2 or 3 runs so I don't think it's absurd to think we transition sooner than later during prime climo. Biggest things I've noticed past several runs in the LR out past the 8th are the retraction of the pac jet, poleward momentum, and the rebuilding of HL neg height anomalies across the EPO, AO, and NAO. PNA moving away from negative isn't hurting either. Don't want to rush the changes we know so.etimes these are delayed but these are all encouraging signs. No head fakes please.

I would lmao if this big warmup was shorter than anyone including myself thought and we enter our 'transition' period tracking legit discreet events.

The look of that banana high up top is getting more stout each run. Wonder if we can reverse the curse and instead of morphing away from threading a needle we can morph this somehow into a legit event. There is a path to victory but it isn't clean nor easy. That WAR may feed a ridge over top of the wave and end up being a blessing in disguise. It's a fast mover with not a whole lot to slow it down but who knows....if we time things right could be a modest little event. Still think this is a tight window with not enough going in its favor...yet. Something under 9 days to track and seeing the backside of the warmth? Thats a win in my book attm.

Getting closer. Still have 8-9 days to adjust for better or worse. Let's thread this needle

This is a rapid turn of events if true:

Inappropriate is subjective.

I have strep and start of scarlet fever. Only thing I'm drinking is pedialyte

I will even pay for the flight

You should move to Kuwait

It is a cross polar flow into the central US directed by the epo ridge which again is a good look. Damn, you guys are frustrating today. You have your take on post Jan 11 I have mine.

As Ryan says and agrees with my thinking....2 weeks of threading the needle until we enter a more favorable PAC and HL look. Gotta get past this. If we get tomid Jan and we have kicked the can and nothing on the horizon then I will start to worry. I see no reason to cancel January at this point.

Again, you r better. You r basing your "pattern is reloading to crap" based on temp anomalies? Seriously ? It's one thing to be pessimistic. Heck we just had record breaking AO and zero to show. But there is no way in hell you look at that 500mb ens mean and suggest it is crud or shut the blinds. Absolutely not. Again tho, let's hope it isn't a head fake and let's get past this relax stretch. Enjoy the weather, it is beautiful out.

In lieu of time restraints I can't repost the disco of mine from the Mid Atl thread. You should take a look. Progressing exactly as most have been stating....as long as not a head fake of course. Not sure how you can look at this and say pattern is crap: CPF even evident. Cmon man, you're better.

I don't think u r looking at recent GEFS. Haven't seen the eps they have been putrid anyway. Clear your cache.

December is the new Msrch and vice-versa

@ravensrule do your thang

PAC help is on the way. Hopes for this not being a head fake. Not perfect but really workable. And we know by now PAC>ATL...though our side isnt horrible either. +heights up top progressing as they had in early Dec but now maybe some PAC help. We can only speculate and hope for now but much rather see this than blue up top and out west. Jet retraction and poleward shift ftw:

Just to add, these 'workable' looks are far from epic, unicorn, textbook etc. I will take workable over epic perfection tbh. Unicorns are make believe.

And a bit farther out,more poleward and a clear -height anomaly evident over the Aleutian chain with the split flow increasing.

Agreed. The look on the gefs mean is certainly moving towards a very workable look. PAC jet poleward look and the split out west would definitely be a welcome change. And you know we dont need bn temps once we get to this range for things to work in our favor. Optimistic. The progression on the means is fairly predictable on a hemispheric lw progression. Let's hope it isn't a head fake as we get past the first week of January.

GFS op at range but after 300hrs shows what I feel is a viable progression towards a more workable pattern as we approach mid Jan. WAR and Scandinavian ridging feeds +height anomalies at HL. Mean trof nudges east and is replaced with neutral/pos PNA. PAC jet splits.

If I ever go to WAR I will carry a needle as my weapon. Whoops, wrong needle. Just having some fun today with quiet times upon us for now. I'm done with the ot stuff.

We've seen WAR help us before just last January iirc. But yeah, 9 out of 10 times what is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Say it again!

I feel like we just tracked a similar setup just 2 weeks ago: