Ralph Wiggum

Have a feeling eps/gefs will continue to merge and final solution will be smack dab in the middle. Could be a track like Hatteras->Assateague->Wilminton DE to Apps sort of thing with a lobe of LP hanging back near MI. Actually thus what hinted at by guidance recently as 36 hrs ago.

Saw that too up top. Minor stretchiness in the pv to the east. Better than bleeding the other way. I accept this.

I will never forget looking at the radar the night prior to that storm saying huh, that convection off the se coast should have been moving ene by now as per guidance. Woke up next morning to that convection being ignited by upper level support and becoming a powerful coastal storm lumbering due N up the coast

CMC is to dogshit what the ICON is to polar bear dysentery

EA sports?

GFS has Jan 25, 2000 vibes with the frontrunner off the SE Coast. It has been trending slower. Have a hunch this morphs into one single entity that is a more organized and slower final system as the se coast energy waits for the upper level support to ignite the powder keg. Lake Superior solutions non existent at 0z thus far. Eta: nm....cmc just said hold my beer....hammers Lake Superior.

Noise. See my last post randy

I'm willing to bet the se coast frontrunner continues to slow and this becomes one extended storm. It has that look to it. I can't see it escaping.

That frontrunner has been slowing last 4 runs and off the se coast is waiting for the ul energy to catch up. Good morph

That WILL become main low. Jan 25 ,2000 vibes sir

Snow overspending DC at 138 from frontrunner.

INCOMING 138

Won't be as west

This run appears OK at quick glance. No more bleeding.

Can't help but have visions of Jan 25, 2000 with that front runner area of slp sitting off the se coast. I remember in said storm that was supposed to do similar to what the gfs has been showing ie run out ahead. But I remember with that storm seeing the energy kind of sitting off the se coast but never really moving ENE....it sat and waited for the approaching energy to link up and it came N. Not expecting a repeat but everytime I see that lp sitting off the se coast in these setups I harken back to that event. Heck, I would take a redux of that one In a heartbeat.

Fwiw the 18z Volkswagen made a move away from doom and gloom and made a 'taffy' out of the tpv extending it broadly towards SE Canada: Eta: probably would end up inland like the gfs op but certainly not looking like it would jump to Lake Superior

Ironically, the gefs are slightly improved if not a decent bit better especially wrt mean lp and mean snow amounts.

GEFS mean ticked west but the individual lp's are spread all over like a dartboard. Diverging rather than converging yes?

He's going to do it anyway. Awaiting the diatribe on how perfect patterns don't always work, marginal events don't work anymore, it's never easy down this way, etc. I'm aware of all that and was just blowing off some steam. Eta: I'm not throwing in the towel until Sunday earliest. We do need 0z to ease the bleeding just a little bit.

Fyp

Seriously, I'm pondering this too. We have all the right tellies and still can't cash-in? I mean, squashed due to too much of a good thing is even more acceptable than these systems plowing thru blocks and disrupting the good tellies at just the wrong time. On to 0z.

Any temps but 60s+ on Christmas for a change would be a win.

Small enough move towards the other globals to warrant concern. I'm just hoping at this point that we still get the arctic outbreak for Dec 25 at least.

The mood right now in the main thread after unhappy hour gfs:

Gotta hand it to Red Sky albeit maybe a bit premature still. Usually cant go wrong siding with the least snowiest solutions. The real kick in the junk is how once again we have all tellies lining up and may still end up with a rain storm. The times/clime have really changed...there is no getting past that.