Ralph Wiggum

Him and Samwise are back in the Shire, they threw in the towel.

Can you dub this one the Swiffer Storm?

You've been preparing ppl since October tho with your essays and journal notes. Nobody is surprised.

GFS is undoubtedly the new King

5 days out and set in stone? Based on the euro? Really?

Iirc from past experience, S and E corrections tend to occur more often when developing blocking up top is either being modeled too weak or incorrectly wrt timing (too slow developing on guidance vs reality). I think this could be one of those times where S and E corrections have increased possibility. Now during Archambault events where blocking is waning or the NAO is relaxing, we tend to see the N and W corrections more frequently. Again, my thinking may be wrong but this is how I remember it from my experiences.

GEPS ticked S for 3/4....better look up top wrt vort lobe moving SE providing better confluence.

GEFS ind members actually improved a fair amount for the area. Still has it's share of op looking members. Mean snowfall also ticked up vs last 2 runs.

Agreed. And it's 5 days out so there is actually time.

While there is truth that guidance trends N most of the time, that is never an absolute....especially with blocking building up top. If there was one that could reverse trends in a couple days, this is the one imho. Not a warm fuzzy feeling attm but optimistic that we wont see N ticks every single run from now thru Friday. I expect some dramatic changes in one form or another thru Wednesday at least.

0z vs 12z Check out the hp

Nice...0z vs 12z

Hmmm, coastal NC weakness. Miller B-ish Eta: CAD signal now

Stronger hp on the cmc, slightly better positioning. LP strength may mitigate that tho. Still close and not a cave to gfs imo.

Could be but at h5 it is holding that lobe back over SE Canada which may aid confluence...doesn't zip it thru like gfs

CMC standing it's ground thru 120

GFS for late week is either leading the way or on an island by itself. Realistically the final answer likely lies between the GFS and Euro....which has also ticked N last 2 runs.

Big difference with the stream separation around Montana. Euro also keeps that vort near Maine helping confluence a tiny bit. Gfs zips it into the 50/50

On to the CMC....

Yep. After 108 there was less separation between NS and the Southern vort. Went to shit after 108.

If this goes the way you noted I will start limiting my posts in this sub for obvious reasons...respect being first. But there is still hope for 40S. Don't give up the ship yet.

Agree with ALL of this. Doing my best to keep optimism and morale high while there is still some semblance of a chance.

GFS is going to be diff...maybe a tick S and E at the very least. Changes with the lobe over SE Canada at 84

That's what I posted above. I mean it isnt a fail proof setup, nothing is. But I would take this anywday vs an amped cutter in Pittsburgh at this range.