Ralph Wiggum

It's about to get busy in here for the next few weeks at least.

If only we had some antecedent cold air. Story of my life. But like CAPE and I were discussing, not out of the realm that we get a rain to wet snow situation.

What is the gfs doing at 102?

6z GEFS has a fairly strong coastal signal post 240 given the range:

EPS has several lows entering the TV...maybe a start of some redevelopment near the NC coast Decent signal but as is common in a Nina, need to beware the cutter.....tho the EPS would suggest is getting forced to redevelop somewhere east given the ridging up top I don't hate this setup.

Had a few labs in my life. Just a great breed, really. Happy NY and congrats. Our home went void of pets last year and we are looking at another lab (or 2) in the spring. We've always had at least 2 dogs at once....had 2 labs and a weimaraner at the same time 10 years ago. Oh and my weim had a murmur, no issue. He lived to 14. Good luck and enjoy!

You know how we roll...either 120hr and under or 360+ nothing in-between. Eta: but seriously 240 on the Euro is the 384 on the gfs...an op at its farthest range. Waiting for @CAPE or @WxUSAF to remind everyone use the ens at that range which aren't a bad look either

GEFS and EPS just a little different in the LR wrt PNA/NAO: The GEFS have been better in the extended but I will just say this...the sudden flip around mid month the GEFS shows sort of fits a Nina after an ECS. Ive been saying we are going to have small windows sandwiched between reloads and dirtier looks and this period fits the mold....if the GEFS are even right. Jan 96...pattern flip right after and tstorm the next week. Jan 2016 good window then flipped a few days after. Am I suggesting a big storm right before or around mid month? Maybe, since several members have been signaling something 11th-14th. My theory could be inaccurate but I seem to remember in past Ninas we tend to flip PNA after a storm and subsequent melt-off. The GEFS mean just prior to the big flip: Let's not forget shorter term tho....could see flakes as early as Thursday/Friday in spots with another wave right on it's heels.

Happy New Year!

Happy 2023!

GFS is threading the needle for Friday. Light event but something. Verbatim probably issues accumulating due to precip intensity and warmish surface going in. That's the Euro and gfs on board for now. Eta: cmc on board but different looks more like a norlun waiting for UL energy to catch up to it Happy New Year!!

I guess we have progressed from PAC firehose to describe the jet extension into the West Coast to "atmospheric river"? Atmospheric River

7 tds in 7 minutes. Wild !!

P30 would be accurate in a normal year.

First I don't trust precip type maps especially at this range still. Also, I think those colder temps bleed in and most precip falls prior thus why the algorithm is showing it as cold rain/wet flakes

EPS on board with the pattern progression now as well. Showed hints past few runs but finally jumped all-in with the EPO, quasi CPF, split out west, deep stj coming south of Baja under the pna, lower height anomalies in the se quadrant of the country, near normal temps.

Feel better man. Get it out of our systems now tho....plenty of Jebwalks coming up this month. Starting to see many of the pros jumping on board too so that's a good sign.

Euro setting up another event 2 days later.

Euro is actually a pretty decent little event. First accumulating for much of this subforum. 24 hours worth of on/off light/mod snow. Let's go!!!

Invoking the Jan 96 analog, eh? I knew I liked you for a reason. Make it happen captain. LFG!!

Euro gives some flakeage Jan 5th and 6th to parts. Norlun style. No way this fails. If we can't Norlun, we can't nothin

Euro gives us flakes on the 5th-6th....wiggum rule is down but not out Norlun trof style. We excel at these

My electric budget is 130/mo and I have oil heat and propane hot water My oil budget? Don't even want to talk about that. My wife likes 68-70 degrees and this 100+ year old farm house is far from energy efficient. Drafts everywhere. Even the kitchen cabinets are drafty. Can't wait til my kids graduate and I can move out of this school district (council rock) and into a modern rancher.

Away from (the) keyboard