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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Pitchers and catchers just over 5 weeks. Phillies fever! I am actually looking forward to it for a change.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    I've heard spring birds chirping at sunrise past few days. I'm not a bird watcher so I have no idea what type, but I recognize the chirps as those call and response late March/early April mating bird cackles. Also, the buds on my Magnolia are swelling and it wont take many more upper 50s to have them popping.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    ^^^So if we get a SSWE end of January, given the lag we may salvage March? Cool, that's refreshing.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    I just hope when we all finally cash in PSU tracks and celebrates with us and we don't have to read his posts about how it will inevitably melt in 36 hours and will be 3+ years before we have another shot. I admire his sense of realism, just hope time is taken to savor the reward when the day comes.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    The days of Vince Lombardi and frozen tundras are a very distant memory. Someone posted a map either here or in the NY forum showing the Gulf Stream has increased 7 degrees in temp over the past x years. It was a legit source. I'm assuming those increased new normal sst's are part of the reason. Probably.part of the reason we are seeing more "just offshore" bombs in recent years. Has to be some sort of correlation one would think.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Yes, open that window, I'm in
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Dude, it's January 2nd
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    GEFS disagrees with the op so we breathe a sigh of relief for now. Lots of waffling on the ens and ops lately. Clear signs of some sort of lw pattern shift.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    But does a Nina have a trof in the SE like this run does? Thru the entire 384 hrs? I never saw such a train of waves riding the Gulf Coast and still digging while they head out over FL and the Bahamas. Zero resistance or semblance of a SER. That is not a Nina look in that respect. Still seems to be acting differently than your standard Nina imo.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    That was a very unhappy happy hour run. So close on 3 chances yet so far away. Progressive asf on that run. There's your mid winter Nina look. Let's hope it's an op blip.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Not what I said at all. Nothing about models. Ppl are using Nina analogs to assume February will be punted. I think it's a narrow way to think which is why I wanted to hear from others on this board.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Well-said....good analogy.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    He isn't the only one. Seems like alot of folks are banking on the classic Nina progression. I mean Nina history says we will have to work for our chances in Feb. That's always a thing. Just looking for stats that might support this Feb being an anomaly rather than Nina SER norm.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Seeing lots of chatter recently about how Feb is going to be trash with a raging SER and -PNA. What makes this thinking such a lock? Is it really a 99.9% certainty that Feb will be punted?
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Now THATS a signal. Deep eastern slight neg tilt trof on the means.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    That's a pretty deep slight neg tilt DEEP eastern US trof on the 12z gefs. There are increasing signals for something between the 11th and 15th give or take for days across guidance.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks like the gefs backed off on the bridge jump from 6z in the lr. 12z better. Definite signal that guidance is struggling with a big pattern change. The transition Jan 5-7 should shed light.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Only on the gefs. Geps and eps are full-on. The fact the gefs have been good in the lr is bothersome tho. Buckle up.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Waiting for PSU to tell us the new norm for snow in this era are sub 25f 850s
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Damn you antecedent crud airmass!
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Better look with the LP, worse look with HP. Been calling this one a thread the needle event and you can see why....a real balancing act. I think outside of some mangled wet flakes mixing this one is on life support but we do still have 5 days. An antecedent cold air mass would have done wonders
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    I echo Ji questioning the new GFS thermal algorithm. How is this all rain?
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS op was soooo close. Minor timing issues. Still a good look given the range. Ens has similar so something to monitor
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    A few frozen chances on the ops over the next 10 days. Nothing screaming monster storm but let's just get on the board. More robust chances coming after the 10th.
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