Ralph Wiggum

6z gefs made improvements at h5 on the means with a better ridge out west and diggier sw. Still having issues with the predecessor that becomes the 50/50 (or not). Stronger primary with cluster in the Lakes for the system you posted. Eta: still a decent signal regardless...again h5 was better

Where ya thinking about chasing?

Whoever said the GFS would show another Buffalo blizzard with the LR fantast storm takes the prize this run. Meanwhile the CMC scrapes the Gulf Coast Miller A style and tries to come up the E Coast. Buckle up, going to be an interesting ride the next week or so.

GFS has a bomb cyclone just developing near coastal SC at 150 while the CMC has a decent low in Buffalo. And ppl want to predict the February longwave pattern when the models can't agree just 6 days out.

Yep can't decide which sw to amplify and phase plus timing vastly different every run...thus why we should be watching the threats prior to the day 9 thing before anything else. These will dictate day 9 but most folks here are already aware of this. Nina storms can jump up quickly while looking too far ahead.

Decent 'signal' overall. If I'm nitpicking at all I don't like how these PNA ridges have been progressive lately and just rolling over. Would like to see that PNA ridge axis about 150 miles or so farther West with subsequent trof going neutral/neg near the Mississippi River longitude. But again, just nitpicking the model if we are truly looking for what can go wrong...which based on this would be progressive PNA ridge, a little too far east as the s/w is moving into the TV...likely a fish storm with that look verbatim. On to 0z.

He's tired of chasing and seeks "the one" where he can stay at home and just enjoy. Those are few and far between, so I dont blame him being a little worried. Most times these 10 day fantasy storms just dont pan out or end up smacking a totally different area than ours.

This is going to be one of those systems with little precip to the left of the low isn't it?

"Atmospheric river". Sounds more menacing.

Not you, just in general speaking.

JMA was a nice run

2 discrete threats next 7 days then a nice fantasy setup. But given the way this season has gone, we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves. Not saying YOU, just talking in general. Big dog setups always look good 10 days out. Usual caveats apply at this range.

Soooo we've moved ahead from 2 discrete threats in the mid range that could get us on the board to a fantasy storm at Day 10ish because it is a better setup? OK, got it

When we relied on the 50/50 for a threat back in December the NAO bamboozled us and weakened then the 50/50 became progressive and we failed. Not saying one way or the other just stating the facts.

Flakes coming soon...several 60s around.

Same. Only thing I check is Mt Holly because I have monster respect for the folks that work at that office @MGorse etc

I'm not going to disagree with you here. But I will just say ens can't even agree on some of the longwave features next week so it is tough to say we punt. I mean, if you are just using a seasonal look and siding with that moving forward I see your theory. I'm holding out hope still....MJO is finally looking to progress into 8-1. *IF* that happens it could be a game changer. I'm certainly.not willing to hang my hat on it but we are starting to see some changes in ssts in the equatorial PAC and with the jet retraction next week, so there is hope. Maybe you can get the punt team ready on the sideline, coach, but I wouldn't get them on the field just yet.

Actually, atmospheric river terminology began back in the early 90s by Zhu iirc. I remember discussing research papers in 1995 back at Penn State. My point wasn't that these terms are made up...we all know what a polar vortex is so I really hope you don't think I was implying this is new. I was saying the media tends to use these terms to bombard the general public and was poking fun while trying to keep things light in here. In any event, I always preferred the term Pineapple Express wrt the West Coast stj impacts tho both are fairly Interchangeable.

I know your younger but really? Eta: Casablanca...Bogey....a classic.

You mean the "atmospheric river"? That is what the media has dubbed the stj aimed at CA. Bomb cyclones, atmospheric rivers, polar vortex mania....no wonder people don't want to watch the mews anymore.

We take

My 11 year old girl just told me we need a new calendar for 2023. I said what kind do you think we should get? She said snowmen. I said but I'm not sure a calendar would have snowmen in July. She said no, but it would in April, that's when we'll get our biggest snow anyway. That would just be sad if reality. But she clearly understands the recent backloaded trends.

I was teasing you, I hope you realize that.

Scary stuff man. Definitely puts things in perspective.

If we get to MLK day and nothing to track and ens are bleak thru entire run, it will be 3rd and long for me. 4th down is Presidents Day. 30th anniversary of the March superstorm this year.