Ralph Wiggum

Any visible chemtrails?

Last pic is most definitely a dog running. Or maybe that's the ever elusive unicorn, hmmmm. Good to hear from you btw.

Gimme 300 on the inside runner that no models are currently showing.

Geez, get better all of you. Kids can pickup germs everywhere, they are germ magnets. Just a hunch....mine gave it to my family. Get well!

I pulled out the voodoo for the rest of the winter. These are just a few. LFG!

I'm pulling out all the stops for the remainder of winter. My version of voodoo. There are more than these but you get the drift. Yes, I love snow....admitting you have a problem is the first step

How much we talking? And what are we using to measure verification? I know a guy that might be interested.

The features at 84 hrs we are looking for upstream to work into our 50/50 look decent at least. GFS was pretty close to a good solution wrt to that but just mistimed the phase offshore.

With that said hard to get a woody yet tho worth keeping a close eye on for now.

JMA is a squasher fwiw. So we have everything from Buffalo cutter, to cold heavy rain, to a miss just South. I mean, the setup is what we want to see for an ECS, but where that plays out is TBD. I'm nowhere near all-in yet tho as I mentioned last week, transition begins around the 6th-8th, weak signal for the 11th. Then around mid month we have legit trackable events. So here we are, progression repeating like Dec, just prime climo now. Eta: I still want to choke on my own vomit at the lr ens but that also doesn't mean they are right....because honestly I don't believe they are.

The fact that @Bob Chill has remained quiet is really all anyone needs to know at this point. When he pops in, it's go time.

We should be getting an ALEET ALEET soon.

I can't even take this serious if you aren't using the CRAS or NAVGEM. Kidding aside, good post.

JMA isn't far off from the Euro. Plenty cold. Might squash tho...trof look positive and want to keeps progressing.

GEFS have been great recently

This year so far is an anomaly to the Wiggum Rule. We have hit 60 here a few times and no flakes within 5 days. Hoping that changes but in most years this theory works without fail. This year is just different. I don't have anything scientific to support this but watch us get hit hard in March. Just been strange so far....perfect setups failing, record cold around Christmas, record -AO. Something odd is in play here this year. Dont punt.

Well, there's only one way to go from here and that's up, so there's that. I said patience is key this year. We may have to remain patient for a bit longer. I'm not punting heck my punt squad is still firmly planted on the bench. I know @RedSkysaid his threshold was Jan 15. I'm in it longer than that....til at least Prez Day. I'm not happy about this tho. Only plus is heat is off and windows open so that is refreshing.

Just read an article in the newspaper...."Area heading for another snowless winter?"

False start on the offense....5 yard penalty, repeat 3rd down. 3rd and 35 after the 12z suite so far.

So the GFS is an Evansville, IN->Augusta, GA->Knoxville, TN->75 miles East of Hatteras track. K, got it

When's our next window after this?

Pretty sure most here are in that boat as well....eyes open but usual caveats. My gut says we either watch it end up sliding S and E under us or we play the thread the needle game with marginal temps and a good track. Not debbing but the overall look while yes, depicting a coastal, is not screaming snowstorm...unless something changes in future runs. H5 and surface look half decent...seeing all those things we like....banana high. 50/50, brief pna spike, digging sw....but the firehose scoured out Canada and we are still trying to reestablish the cold air source during this timeframe. Eta: waiting for you to tell me not to focus on temps but I'm looking large scale here....not rain/snow lines within some 10 mile radius

Well, the 2 threats in the MR are either doa or on life support. Looking at the lr ens don't exactly give a warm (pun intended) fuzzy feeling either. Tho we seem to have had the lr ens means fail verification quite regularly lately, so maybe we can verify opposite the crud looks depicted. @RedSky we just took a 13 yard loss on a 2nd down sack. 3rd and long?

Yep, one step forward, two steps back. Then you look at the ens means for some lr hope and just choke on your own vomit.

Looks like our 2 minor potential events in the mid range went POOF. Too fast of a flow. Maybe some mangled wet passing flakes Sunday night but temps are still marginal. Other system races/slides South that will be one of the player for the Jan 14ish system.