Ralph Wiggum

No JMA love?

My 11 year old daughter reminded me the other day to stay patient because "we always sled in March when we get our deepest snows". She isn't wrong in recent years. She even mentioned a April snow from several years ago. She has a meteo memory like you!!

Don't worry...CFS says March will rock....especially after our early Feb SSWE

That H5 was classic tbh. Little more confluence shifted S and we had it...both our subs

GFS says maybe I collect?

CFS says Feb has plenty of cold air up North to tap

I don't think the scientists know. Way too many mutations now. And by the time you read a report that a specific mutation is dominant the next dominant mutation is already getting a foothold. Feel better.

You know me....I will be here til the bitter end of the season tracking and trying to find any positives I can. Murphy's Law with me is usually I'm overly optimistic in the LR and we fail every time....or I punt and we enter a pattern that is producing. I'm not punting yet and honestly until cold air gets reestablished up North I can't be optimistic in the LR. We are in a thread the needle game for a while longer. It would be nice to just get a clean event...a half decent non amped wave sliding under the region with cold air established on our side of a boundary.....no timing worries, no phasing concerns, not relying on a 50/50 or some telleconnection acronym to progress into a specific phase. Rant over. Now let's get some flakes flying Sunday night.

The sad reality is the wet snow to rain Sunday night is our biggest trackable event of the season so far under 84 hours. I'm not even sure it will warrant an advisory down this way.

I've been kicked in the junk so many times the past 6 weeks I actually welcome it anymore and would be concerned if I stopped having my nuts and hopes crushed. By April I may have thrown all my snowman voodoo pieces and snowblower into my fire pit. Patience is wearing thin....this hobby is not for the weak.

Maybe the 14-15th storm can morph in to a 50/50 for this? I mean, we got a 50/50 chance

We need the polar vortex, bomb cyclone, and atmospheric river all working in tandem.

Been saying since around Christmas especially in the PHL forum, it is going to take a while for our cold air source to reestablish itself to our North given the PAC firehose. This weekend was always the transition but it usually takes a lag of 1-2 more weeks to get Canada where we want to see. At least in my experience. Was hopeful by mid month we would be there but obviously looking at ens mean temp departures we are still working towards that goal by next weekend....not quite in time to. Things are still too marginal. Yes, the can keeps getting kicked. Nothing we can do but hope by 3rd week we are back into a more normalized or BN temp look up top. Cold is and always has been the first ingredient needed, period. Marginal can work during prime climo but it is a thread the needle balancing act.

I wanted to note this yesterday but for fear of debbing the board I refrained, But since guidance is now leaning more more thread the needle I jist wanted to say we aren't tapping much of a cold air source, with virtually NO SNOWPACK to our north. Sure, a transient cold HP could work for a bit but even with these perfect track looks, once mids start flooding with an amped low closing off, dynamics will work for a bit, but there isn't the help that we usually see where cold ir is locked in or keeps funneling in. I realize there is more to storm dynamics than this, alot more, but there is no denying this is a big problem now and will he a problem for the foreseeable future. Just my $.02

Yep. No arguing that. Does look like we lost some of those cutter members from earlier today due to the better ridging to the N probably.

Not sure I agree. Western trof stronger, ridge downstream from there stronger, trof in E/SE slightly stronger/deeper. Vorticity in the stj that was going to phase with the PJ into the 50/50 just kept moving due E or slight N of E and stayed separate too long. Again, plenty of time and noise for now but we want the Euro and other guidance to move towards a better consolidated 50/50 over the next several days, not the other way.

Different situation but similar setup to a system we had in Dec where we were pinning hopes on a 50/50 at the same range and a transient PNA spike. I can't remember if it did the same thing ie didn't really phase in time or phased in the 50/50 area but moved out too quickly. I want to say the latter. We'll know in a few days I guess what this decides to do.

Pretty big move actually on the GEFS that went from a consolidated 50/50 towards more separation and less phasing among individual members....thus this change on the means. Plenty of time tho.

So, a thread the needle type situation, so-to-speak.

I'm seeing that across the board re: the 50/50. Definitely a crucial piece for this to work.

Don't get me wrong, it's a pasting but occluded and sits and spins flipping BUT doesn't matter 7-8 days out. Gonna change.

Spoke too soon? Closed off and mids torched with the easterly flow. Still, much improved for an ops at this range. SIGNAL.

An 800 move in the right direction

CMC is the eps from 12z A crushing

CMC woah