Ralph Wiggum

This North Pole block / -4 SD AO is sort of unchartered territory for us in quite some time. This could end up being the perfect set of ingredients to set off a powder keg or it could end up in the same dumpster fire of super anomalous teleconnections we have seen over the past decade, ie, too much of a good thing. It's sort of the concern that psu and I are (i think) sharing. If we are consistently failing on what used to be our most common events and then we keep failing with these super duper drool-worthy tellies that used to be our high-end MECS/HECS, then what's left? Let's hope this last hurrah next week wrt hemispheric pattern can work it's magic for us.

Please wear Kelly green, that's my only request.

We are pinning out hopes on that linkage breaking just correctly and at the right time. Seems complicated. Maybe for a change we can do complicated successfully.

I wonder with the block rotting at that time and the nao trending neutral/positive if this trends North? @Stormchaserchuck1 what say you?

@psuhoffmanI really hope we don't have to, but have been getting a sickening feeling for 3 days now....you're gonna need to dig that log book out my friend.

I was looking more at the expanse of precip not really the jack stripe. Apologies for the confusion

Yeah, nothing to see here. Even on the 12z ukmet.

GFS is close too. But these distant systems have looked good all winter only to fizzle when within 84 hrs. We shall see. I'm still wondering if we get that mobster storm around the 20th ppl are going on about??

Ukmet looks better than the GFS for the Northern Crew. (Not that it's a shock)

Latest sref mean

It is cancelled. GFS went South. See you in December. Go Birds. GO Flyers. Go Phillies.

If I weren't focused on the mid March pattern I would post that the NAM, ICON, RGEM, NAVGEM, SREF all ticked N and the GFS is looking early to follow suit.

Last 5 nam 12k shifts

Baby steps? Still have about 60 hours to keep ticking.

I've moved on to the Great 2025 Ides of March epic blockbuster. Anything happening before then?

At h5 72 hrs the flow along the Canadian Border is more relaxed. Should certainly allow it a tick N i would think.

Bit of a N push wrt the surface stuff associated with the wave out near Oklahoma at 60 vs 18z

Yeah, we're cooked for the next 4 weeks so savor tonight.

Did Broad Street in 2008 with the Phillies. I lived 10 mins from the stadium at the time in SE Delco. It was worth it. Then drove thru 2pth and Frankfort and al.ost had my SUV flupped it was crazy lol. That ended a major drought in the city wrt championships. Then did the parade of course. But yeah, being 50 now I over that. Parade would be fun tho again.

Rgem will be South this run. Well, it was fun while it lasted. Eta:initial wave slides south but 2nd wave overnight Tuesday impacts SE PA

Y'all see how that reverse psychology works? Winter cancel after tonight's ice storm, kaput!

Not sure anyone mentioned, but the NAM came N for Tuesday

Hard to get pics outside of the good lighting so here's what I see from my lighted deck

Icicles on everything. Streets are covered in ice. Down to 29F. Pretty decent icing event here. Trees and wires showing some sag.

NAM at range, I wouldn't be disappointed about anything after 30hrs on that model.