Ralph Wiggum

Just need this ^^^ threat window to hold thru Jan 15 so we can keep @RedSky from punting. I think he said the 15th was his punt date if no trackable events on the models. Hang in there. The windows arent big but there will be some possibilities here and there after mid month.

LFG!!

Winter 2022-23.... the year that made 1997-98 look like Antarctica in the Eastern US.

CFS just shit the bed for our February month of winter and cold redemption. However there is hope....it now says March is going to feature BN temps and a workable longwave pattern.

Beggars can't be choosers but if this season has taught us anything so far it's that too much of a good thing isnt always good. No avocado tracking.....not again please

Well, this year has behaved more like a Nino than a Nina, so we have that going for us as we enter deep winter. Whether or not that means Nina flexes it's muscle and we torch in Feb is tbd...but this has been a very strange year wrt enso analog behaviors. I mean, have any major cities from DC-Portland, ME recorded more than a few inches of snow? If that? This can't last forever and eventually it's going to flip for the better.

I mean, he's not wrong either....tho the longwave pattern from day 7-12 looks essentially the same on all ens, so the progression probably has legs this go round.

It started already sir. Was a grueling 2 weeks tho. Now get some skin on them bones....gonna need the insulation soon.

Exactly. Clear signal for a big time pattern shift across guidance. Pattern progressing as expected mimicking last 2 months' pattern evolution. Won't be long after mid month...buckle up.

Don't even

Agreed. This one doesn't look like a head fake. Funny thing is the ens lost it for a few days in unison. Then brought it back essentially the same time period. Funny how that works.

The most important step imo. I wouldn't bother looking beyond the cold air establishing tbh. Baby steps.

Just jumped on briefly....at work. What's this I missed we have to root for models verbatim now? Ffs let's get the cold air source reestablished then get it into the lower 48 first and foremost. Could care less if it has staying power, if it doesn't look perfect, etc. Ingredient 1....cold...the thing we've been lacking. LFG!

Here we go....gefs:

Be patient. Fairly confident a backloaded winter is in the cards. Said this since Nov but growing increasingly confident. Near mid month we should start seeing trackable events modeled but more realistically the best looks should settle in after the 21st.

Didn't feel like reposting this entire thing but the pattern progression and move to a less hostile PAC and colder air reestablishing is still on track. Mid Jan forward buckle up: BN temp regime

Period centered near the 23rd is finally reflecting the less hostile curremt PAC transition and dropping BN 850s across a good chunk of the US. As I often say, I prefer a more broad-based colder look as opposed to the PV dropping right on top of our regions. All 3 major global ens systems are supporting this look as we pass mid January. So the head fakes wrt the pattern progression were in fact not head fakes and reemerged on the globals after disappearing for a few days. The lag time to get things In place may have just been a couple days longer to get there at worst: And fwiw, the CFS is not only still on board for a February redemption but has actually strengthened the colder looks in a broad regime across the country: H5 maps show some decent signals but obviously nothing discrete at this range. First ingredient is always the colder air, and my post was to show we are finally going to have that in place it appears. Will begin looking at H5 for longwave stuff as we head forward.

As always go with the least snowiest solution, in this case the gfs will lead the way.

Day 7 is usually the last day I use the ens. We are in ops mode fwiw. Not saying eps are wrong, I just lean on them less under 7 days.

Weenie handbook 2nd edition Chapter 5 section 3b....expect some big changes in the models next 36 hours as the energy out West is just starting to get better sampled.

Patience....it's starting to happen.

Not a single flake last night. Few rain drops was it. Looking ahead, not too much interesting thru mid month as our PAC transition is progressing along. But by mid January and the 3rd week of the month we are seeing colder temp anomalies showing up finally. Still thinking the pattern progression is going as modeled maybe a couple days lag than originally pronged. But by the end of all ens means we have a nice pool of BN 850s and 2m temps showing up. And the CFS continues to hammer on BN across much if the US into Feb.

Colder anomalies towards the end of the ens means. CFS still honking. Patience will pay off eventually.