Ralph Wiggum

I'm not sure that's a shutout look tho on the latest GEFS. CPF entering central US, stj under a split flow, weakness in the 50/50, and a ser. Looks more like a gradient or boundary setup where it will depend how strong/dominant each feature becomes. Cold is able to be tapped, 50/50 may help at times, stj sending waves along the boundary. To the N of where that sets up can cash-in. Going to depend d alot on the strength and positioning of the SER. That will likely drive the pattern wrt where the boundary sets up shop. Alas, we are talking last day of an ens means forecast. But I don't think that's a shutout look verbatim. It's close to being pretty good tbh.

Last post re: Feb 2006....I think this guy now forecasts for this subregion iirc?

The deformation band was just puking snow. It started out slowly the 2nd half of Saturday Feb 11 but by midnight (NW of Philly) it was ripping. Had a lull around daybreak, then the deathband pressed thru with sustained 35mph winds and thunder for about 45 minutes.....rates of 3-4"/hr.

I don't think anyone can say with absolute certainty. Models are struggling 7 days out still. I don't see a shut the blinds pattern at all on the horizon, at least based on overall ens means. So we should still have chances going forward. Problem is, we haven't cashed-in on any chances so far. The SSWE that all models are now showing may have some implications as well. If we get a single 1-2" storm, I think most would take it at this point.

Well said.

Currently watching home video of my wife, myself, and 2 dogs taking a Jebwalk under the death deformation band during the big Feb 2006 storm. Ahhh, memories.

Welcome aboard, plenty of room.

What Would Ji Do? Don't answer, he already canceled winter earlier.

Sucky snowfall delusional disorder

I've had snow the 2nd week of April that accumulated and stuck around for 36 hours. March is a winter month, period. Maybe not deep winter or peak climo but that's like saying late Nov or early Dec snow sucks.

I never understood the "saving winter" concept. Most snow weenies enjoy winter for the snow. So when it snows in March, isn't that still snow? If it snowed in Oct and none the rest of the winter did we "save winter" or did we enjoy the snow? I guess I just have a different mindset. I don't care for it stcking around, getting crusty, dirty, annoying, etc. Sure, a few days is cool, but like post marital sex, ya take it when you can get it even it only last briefly.

It's gonna happen and ppl will be complaining why couldnt we get this in January etc etc. But I'm a believer of just accepting whatever nature throws at us. Doesn't usually work how or when we want it to.

Today's system was somewhat modeled like this in the same range. It was more of a thread the needle look but the 22nd thing isn't exactly a clear path to victory either. Hope we can fluke into something in this mess before we have to rely on the shorter wavelengths thing i noted above or some mega convoluted mid March system.

But you and I both know that when the wavelengths between systems become more favorable into late winter during Ninas is when we traditionally score. I am expecting nothing less this year probably into March. I think it was you that mentioned it in a post earlier...drag the boundary South behind a storm and sneak a wave behind right on it's heels as the boundary is under us. If this year's rapid sw progression is showing us anything it is that the aforementioned simple setup is how we are going to score when those wavelengths shrink. It's really the only way right now. Everything else is failing and there is no way to sugarcoat that.

And mjo looks to progress from 1->2->3 in the coming weeks so of course we are seeing the SER starting to show up again on some of the lr ens.

You mention SER persistence since 2016. Aside from a brief Nino blip in 2019 we have overall been stuck in a La Nina phase since 2016 which features the weak WAR and a SER canonical base. Too much of a good thing isn't always good either....we had a string on Nino years in the early.90s and we sucked it up. When we see ENSO fluctuate YOY is 'generally' when we do ok (normal?). We can either hope the SSWE helps us do a backloaded thing or we pray we come out of this succession of -ENSO. Again, maybe simplistic in my approach but truly think these are related to why we score or suck in winters among other factors.

But is the WAR really something new? And have we seen this feature be predominant for an anomalously longer stretch? Like a decade or more? If the enso phase shifted and we were snowy with a Nino, for ezample, would any of us really be talking about WAR and SER and troughs not aligning the way we like? And before you get to "but marginal Nino events don't work for us anymore", can you answer my last question? I don't think it's a simple answer wrt the pattern. I do think a massive chunk has to do with enso however. With that said, I also think we tend to over complicate things at times.

Troughs are amplifying way sooner than I ever remember...I've literally seen 15 straight cutters on the gfs since mid dec 1997-98. It happens. We have these stretches...decades at times. 80s sucked. Big chunks of the 90s sucked. We had a pretty amazing stretch for a while before 2016. Nina DOES have alot to do with it. Especially when you get one for years in a row this stuff happens. It likely wont change until we get out of this enso phase or something flukey happens to counter the Nina canonical base. Long term enso phase locks tend to strengthen the base state tendencies to suck ass. Once we get a major shakeup in the equatorial PAC ssts I'm willing to bet things change. Would love to have the time and energy to dig as deeply as PSU likes to, and I know this is somewhat simplistic, but this string of several Nina years in succession isn't common....and neither are the pattern analogs so methinks there is a correlation between the 2. Until Nina wanes, we are fucked imho.

Fwiw 3 massive solar flares from different areas of the sun in a 4 day period a few days back. Pretty unprecedented from what I've read. Eta: deleted non PC sarcasm

Day 10+ on an op tho? I mean, the GEPS do look a hell of alot better than the GEFS but can it be trusted?

That was a good one. I have video of me and my wife and 2 dogs taking a Jebwalk as that deformation band cranked overhead. And back then, those videocameras werent small enough for your pockets. It's a wonder I didn't destroy the thing and have actual footage!

Thunder and lightning here in Ivyland. Your typical mid January evening

You know as well as I do 1 of 2 things will happen. A) whatever can go wrong WILL go wrong....whether that be a displaced ridge axis, badly timed SER flex, etc. Or we do the complete opposite and enter an epic window of winter.

Cali is fooked