Ralph Wiggum

That h5 look is a bit deceptive tho esp with a CPF fighting a weak/flat SER. Surface temps are alot colder. That's probably one of the better looks we could have given the Nina. I didn't see you note the stout 50/50 being depicted either? That's a less complex potential path to victory. Classic mid season overrunning setup. Posted wrt this yesterday on here via gefs....good to see eps signal as well:

Fucking shit hit the fan....a veritable fuck fest in here with this fucked winter. Oh and we are allowed to use "fuck" now btw. Happy you fucking feel better.

It's funny...it has trended slightly weaker and east with SER run over run since 0z yet the Western ridge has nudged west run over run since 0z. Would have expected a more robust and well placed Nina-esque SER with the PAC looks. I think guidance is struggling right now pretty badly out past day 7-10.

Lots and lots of atomic and nuclear testing. May or may not have had a direct impact.

JMA about to go ham at the end of the run. Potential is there across ops guidance now. Doesn't seem quite cold enough on JMA preceding the system as the flow is amping hard-core as well.

Eventually, who knows when, one of these are going to surprise us in a good way. It's like the boy who cried wolf...we are just going to keep chalking up losses then BAM!

GFS and GEFS have quite the SSWE with the SPV shrinking and splitting completely.

I wonder how a deep snowpack in Canada and to our North would have affected things this winter?? Seems those areas have had an historically LOW and late snowpack. It all ties in but I wonder to what extent that lack of snow-cover has hurt us.

I dont disagree with a thing you're saying. Honestly. I'm trying to look for at the cause of things by utilizing those tools that have been studied and written about much deeper and longer ie enso, pdo, nam, mjo, etc. The whole (can't say the word) thing is still relatively in infancy of studies. You would be an AMAZING asset to that group. You have alot to offer in that regard. I hope I didn't offend you which I probably didnt....I've been around long enough to know you are a debater with thick skin. Have a good one fellow PSU alum.

Alright, that was a fun tangent. I'm going to step away for a bit. Can someone please hit the reboot button and get us back on the rails please...from this: To this:

Sift back thru the last 3 pages of shit....I was all.over it.

I don't think you get what ppl are saying. I am not really disagreeing with this whatsoever tbh. But the mods have made it clear there is a place to discuss that and most of your debate points are 100% valid and justified. I think some folks just get want to discuss models and current wx without having to sift thru posts that essentially say "sucks to be you, a snowlover, because these are the new times we are in and we will never go back to the way things were so too bad for you and deal with it". I personally don't care one way or the other. I'm just playing devils advocate and stoking the fire because it's boring. Weather/nature gonna do what it wants.

But what is "before". Folks keep saying "before, it would have snowed in this pattern". I am willing to bet if we started the season on schedule and up North had a snowpack we WOULD have had more LL cold available. I'm just skeptical of the "it probably won't ever snow again because of (fill in the blank)" crew. Your points are valid. There is science behind a good portion of it. But things fluctuate (change). I don't think our best days of all time are behind us. Nature has a funny (sometimes cruel) way of balancing thing out over time. We can look at TODAY....the west coast has been in an epic worst of all time no end ever in sight drought for 7-10 years. Things balance out. Nature always wins.

I wonder what this forum would have been like in most of the 70s and 80s and early 90s? What would we have blamed back then? Anyway. Some red tagger on another forum is using 1862 as an analog for this year. Anyone remember what happened in Feb that year?

Bingo!

Better look for the 22nd/23rd wave as well. Colder overall and farther E with the LP. All we can take away for now is there's a chance next week. Albeit it doesn't have tons of support. But beats talking upper 50s, cloudy and thunder in mid January

This run is a much improved look for the 19th - 24th. Not quite there yet. That's all we can take away for now.

You probably got some snows there during your college years that I didn't get up here, so there's that

Kind of disorganized with lots of moving pieces. Dont hate what I'm seeing next week anyway.

GFS is really trying to pump a pna ridge after the 20th. Maybe transient, not sure, but the 22nd threat is digging in response. Might be a decent run.

Good pass with the ULL...burst of snow on the back end

It's not far off tbh. Low probability but still.

12z gfs isn't far off from a trackable event for the 19th/20th. I would rate it as low probability right now, but a few shifts S of the HP or track of the slp and maybe:

Meanwhile, the GEPS overwhelms us with cold/dry and nary any sign of a SER. So pick your poison.

I think he is honing in on the SER feature and the eps is seeing that a little bit more. Either way it doesn't look like a blinds-shutter. Could go either way, alot will depend on how much cAk can press and how much the SER pumps....will it flex? Will it be a flat ridge like we've seen recently? Who knows yet, something to watch.