Ralph Wiggum

You punt and models start showing snow. Happens every time.

And there's that weakness extension into the 50/50.

Haven't even looked today...been busy at work and sneaking in some football. But the ens means among the 3 major global modeling systems had weakness and a strong signal for LP in the 50/50 region as recent as 6z. Wouldn't be shocked to see us back into something....the overall h5 wasn't screaming big coastal low but definitely signaled overrunning gradient on all 3 ens means.

The Ji Overrun Event or the Ji Run Away From Winter 22-23 event. We'll see how this one plays out. He gets his name attached to it either way.

4th and 39....hail Mary, punt, or a fake punt? Let's take a TV timeout and talk it over. @RedSky what say you? @Birds~69?

Roger Smith says massive overrunning event first week of Feb then spring.

Even with some signs of a SER on the LR GEFS, it is encouraging to see a wide and deep swath of BN temps to the N and even our areas are BN 850s and near N 2m temps. Definitely doesn't look like a Nina SER torch even given the PAC pig ridge near the WPO. I think the EPO is helping funnel some CPF from Siberia to the N and into the Midwest and also we keep seeing weakness tendencies in the 50/50 region. Once again, this Nina not behaving like a typical one we would see. Some tellies match up but some other features just do not.

And under 14 days.....lock it in!

Euro has a modest snow event here on the 22nd. Not 10 days away.

Euro has some snow/frozen on Jan 22.

Annnnnd that's why I love this forum

Not the Poo Klux Klan!! Ok,who hacked the site?

Nooooooo! I am going to miss your friendly ball-bustings. I mean that

Looks like a turd emoji with snow on top of it?

12z JMA...not taking it verbatim but maybe we can roll into some luck....guidance has some cold air hanging around for a change

18z gfs was gradient wave after wave with us being really close to being on the good side of a couple of them. Sure, history says none of these will work based on seasonal trends. But with cold air pressing for a change it really won't take much for 1 of these to work.

Far from. Only takes one good CAA push as a wave slides along the boundary. Season has shown it isn't likely but don't give up yet.

Flurries in Blue Bell

I like that hybrid enso term there...."ninano". Brilliant!

There's only one to go from here....really. Next year won't be a repeat, I think most here ('most') would agree it can't get worse. So we have that going for us.

Tend to agree. One last brief deep winter window late Jan into very early Feb then we go blowtorch. We can always hope for a convoluted March window but overall so far this winter has been humbling.

Super happy to hear they resigned Hoskins. He makes his mistakes but I always feel he came in clutch. Not one of the Bobby Abreu types that would hit a home run when they were already winning by 8 runs. 6z GFS reflects the late Jan window with a weak overrunning reflection and deep CAD signature. We all know it will probably flip and end up sunny and mid 50s but we can hope.

And cloudy. One other note, aside from a brief window late Jan/early Feb....virtually all modeling is now in agreement for a raging SER and torch Feb before we enter a convoluted and BN March.

It looks like another brief window before we go full-on Feb Nina. At least that's what virtually every LR piece of modeling seems to agree on at this point. Then of course a BN March...but did we really expect otherwise?

Guess I should have been more specific. I was implying more 2m LL cold and not necessarily suggesting snow. So maybe 'classic' was a poor choice of words. Frozen would have been better. Absolutely agree with that wrt I'm sure that look will morph into something that we've seen already this winter. Hope a reshuffle is in the works soon.