Ralph Wiggum

Sour Diesel on the rocks

This is the one....Feb 12! Lock it in :

Backend stuff? @ravensrule

On to the eps!

What happened to this massive cold push finally in place??

I'd rather have it under 120 hours so we have a clearer picture of the camps presented, but that's just me. The whole "it's right where we want it" thing is a weenie fallacy tbh.

See my other post. Gotta stop with the "no way this can be suppressed" talk. All options on the table still but nothing set in stone. Could cut or could slide...we just can't know (sorry to borrow your line @CAPE)

Just to play devils advocate here....but this is very different in that we have a displaced TPV and cold air pressing as the SJ wave rolls along so can we really say this is coming North 100%? I see what you are saying, believe me I do....but this setup is uncharted territory for this year and if the ens individuals weren't showing a decent clustering sliding under us I would be more inclined to side with y'all here. As you were....

That's the one we r keying in on but for some reason folks last night were out to day 10+ as the threat

Atl looks slightly improved, pac looks slightly stepped back. They cancel each other out imo. Was supposed to be the confused emoji. Seems when one side trends good the other trends opposite. Couldn't tell you last time we had both side work in harmony. Tho with the early Feb thing the Atl side is probably.more important. If we can score then I don't care if the pac fails and we move into a spring break pattern.

Bro, 10 days out. This is the Roger Smith storm he mentioned in early January, but let's get this under 120 hrs. I know....nothing else to talk about....I get it.

Make. It. Rain.

I predict that we can't predict what this model run will depict. Jeahhh

Debs gonna deb. This looks fine to me.

I was more thinking the boundary sets up too far S and E to do us any good, ie, too much of a good thing scenario (TPV caa push) as one way we dont win. Again, just throwing it out there because we have to be careful too when the TPV gets displaced and starts progressing along. Means are all over the SER flattening and the TPV skirting by to the N pushing in the cold but as I noted yesterday, it's a clean setup but still a thread the needle wrt timing of that push and the waves along the boundary. We can score with the boundary and cold even pushing too far S and E if we time a wave or 2 right. For now we wait because as @CAPE would say, we just can't know yet.

What was Chuck bazzing on about yesterday that our best chance in this N Am longwave pattern would be with a ++NAO? I tend not to read some of his stuff too deeply as it often is contradictory. Any truth to what he suggested tho? @CAPE, @psuhoffman, @WxUSAF

I mean, it's a pretty clean setup and way to score but there are still significant ways to muck up this period, and I know you are aware of how. All going to come down to timing between the moving/progressing TPV to our North and waves along the longwave boundary out ahead. At least we have a legit window again...now we try once more to work in a couple discrete threats/waves.

Individual ens all over it as well. Hate to be pessimistic but I'm sure we will find a way to fail. Get it within 5 or 6 days and I will start believing.

Feb 3 it says tho

Keep that TPV (avocado) up in SE Canada and not plowing into the Midwest and we might actually do this. Balancing act....displace it South too far and run the risk of squashed cold and dry....not displaced enough and the SER flex wins out and we go warm/wet. There is a path to victory but it is narrow imo. Hopefully we can widen the goalposts moving forward.

Is this the +NAO Chuck was saying we would need to finally score?

Careful what u wish for. It's going to take some bowling avocados to 'squash' that SER, pun intended.