Ralph Wiggum

I'm looking into some alternative and more exciting/rewarding hobbies outside of this disastrous winter weather thing. What do you folks think of these? -Fantasy curling league -Growing algae -Lint collecting -Sleeping -Making random pointless spreadsheets -Timing various paints drying ... -And inputting that data into a random spreadsheet^^ Let me know if you or a friend are interested in joining a fantasy curling league. I might know a guy trying to organize one.

CMC is out to sea so yeah. Oh but prior it is all rain, zero snow even with a massive polar fresh hp to the N.

So we are back to a day 8-9 threat. Do I have that right? OK, this has got to be the one....right?

I have snowmen juju all over the house. Into the fiery pits of hell they go.

I've seen and had enough for the season. I'm sure things will start to look up now that Ive done this:

I don't ever remember anything like it. Though we have had the exact opposite in some years where whenever it can snow it does and will. So it's one of those balancing acts that nature likes to perform. This winter is just pathetic but there is only one way to go from here.

It befuddles me how we can get a Nina-ish SER base but once there is any semblance of a cold push instead of the SER fighting and creating lift and overunning it just folds and the entire flow gets squashed and sheared/shredded in this progressive pattern. I know it's Nina, progressive is common but seeing zero lift with a H5 look that would suggest such is absolutely mind-boggling.

It's over. This is usually the time I cave and raise the white flag and then Mirphys Law kicks in and we end up tracking discrete threats. Different feel tho this year. Flag is hoisted but I dont see any way we get out of this aside from a complete reshuffle of the atmospheric deck. That may not happen for quite a while.

Imma head out. See you guys in March.

Walking a tightrope with that longwave setup

We still have President's Day and all of March! Not over yet.

On a weather related note, we could actually use a well-timed WAR next week tbh.

Precisely. We hope not but we all know this is nowhere near final yet as we have seen massive changes all season in less than 72 hours even. Buckle up.

Looks like a few waves for now, but as I said this entire setup beyond Feb 1 could still morph. It is actually close to a morphed look as hints the TPV hauling ass out faster and the SER return flow pumping again. Could also slow down under a confluent flow and cause more suppression....it's a subtle detail that could have a major impacts. But with these waves they traditionally move the boundary around, so we could see the first setting up near our region and the followup more suppressed etc. Doubtful that we don't see ANY flakes but we just can't know yet how these waves are going to play out. Each one is interdependent on its predecessor so it is more of a 30 hr forecasting type week and not 120 hrs out. The pieces are there for 1 or 2 modest events (probably not a BIG storm tho that is subjective if we are relating this to the lack of any real snow so far), lets see what happens.

Not in a good spot imho. Not attm anyway. Just made a post in the mid atl thread. This is the range next 24-36 hours where these systems have morphed all season and I would be surprised if we didn't see this happen again. Unclear if for better or worse tho. For example, the GEFS individuals don't like next week at all. Either suppression city or misses N and W, not real in-between aside from using the mean blend which doesn't reflect that volatility which the ind members are showing..

This is the range where all season that systems have begun to morph, so I would be surprised if we don't see some sort of changes or fly in the ointment type deal over the next 24 hours. This does seem like uncharted territory this year where we actually have a fairly clean setup and a workable path to victory, so who knows....maybe this one is/will lock-in with just subtle ticks n or s. With other prior systems in similar range we either ended up with the SER being more stout, a rogue sw up top mucking things up, or like before Christmas the TPV morphed into an avocado and overwhelmed the wave. Not suggesting a major change here. Just noting that IF we are going to see this thing morph into something different it is going to be over the next 24-36 hours of runs. Otoh, if the looks hold, you guys south of lat 40 are in a really good spot imho where up my way we probably end up fringed. GL with today's runs.....and may the force be with you.

How many pages in total do all of the main discussions have with no snow to show? Has got to be some sort of record ratio I would think.

Let's go!!

That's plenty big snows....a mecs per NC standards sir

Well, we haven't really failed with suppression yet so let's have it. Why the f not right?

No mechanism to bring that N whatsoever.

Suppression depression...a most unhappy happy hour unless your name is DT

TPV swinging thru SE Canada alot faster. Looks squashy

Love it!