Ralph Wiggum

Tell me you think things are too warm without actually saying you think things are too warm

Too soon

Next window appears to be around PD. Boundary pressing S while waves ride the gradient. Let's go!

So we need a 'hail mary' on Super Bowl Sunday. Seems sort of fitting. At least we still aren't trying to thread needles.

We talkin steps like this?

You know thats exactly how the one threat this winter will unfold whether it turns out to be this one where all models bow to the gfs unlike every other system OR some oddball fluke window in the 2nd half of March. I agree, that's how we end up cashing in this year.

I'm rooting for a hail Mary here like most everyone else. But realistically it would still take some fairly dramatic adjustments on the other guidance (Euro/CMC/ICON) and merely one or 2 minor changes on the gfs to drop this look. Of course I'm skeptical but don't get that confused with pessimistic either. GFS needs support and we've seen the gfs on its own island too many times this season around this range.

Like a mid March storm. Maybe a precursor to the tail end of winter anyway.

In a winter where even the most favorable setups have failed we are now relying on a most unorthodox setup to deliver the goods. I'll probably observe cautiously from the sidelines for now but if we get more than 1 model on board and get this under 72 hrs I might get interested. This is a pretty delicate setup, but I'm sure you already know this.

Models are headed the wrong way tho. Look upstairs and 850, not just the surface. This is almost totally rate dependent and we don't do complicated rate dependent very well. A chance, but slim.

The SSWE and potential SPV split look has held....so March could still throw us a fluke.

That's a crazy future's bet. Talk about long range! That's for March 26th. That's not even giving an edge....literally a 50/50 at this range. With that said take the +odds.

I liked every so often ge would stack 3 of the COLD icons. Once in a blue moon you would get 3 of the SNOW icons over us.

Yep, this is legit. But the sports books that host these wagers aren't the most dependable...yet. You won't find this on fanduel or draftkings. There was one site I used to use for hockey that had this but it wasn't as easy as you would think. They would pick cities and do a max high temp or min low temp over/under but it wasn't "Philly's high temp 37 o/u"....you had a spread of say 34-42 and could take o/u for that range. Then if you wanted to wager within said range it would be like -1600 or something asinine.

https://www.usaonlinesportsbooks.com/entertainment/weather-betting.html

The Euro isn't too warm.

Transient flow but we can cash-in. Trackable.

This work?

Seen flakes 4 times over last 10 days. Amazing run we're having.

Flurries and windy in Warminster. 24F

I was being facetious/sarcastic no worries

Snow at my parents' place in N Cape May

Bro, you said no negativity....just keeping with the good vibes. We probably need intervention....big group hug

Where was this in January? Maybe this can increase chances for that big mid March event...

Out beyond the Feb 11-14 window, the GEFS gives renewed hope in the LR with an elongated/displaced TPV and flattening of the SER. Also some evidence of lower heights near the 50/50 region. Still have some issues in the PAC but it's not a shit the blinds look and may offer continued chances thru the 3rd week of Feb at the very least. CFS continues that same general idea thru early March: