Ralph Wiggum

I have a feeling alot of folks misinterpreted my posts this AM about the post feb 20 maybe being a toss up but we have a bunch of shit staring us in the face next 7 days or so. By.zero.means was that complaint nor a knock on any individual. I even put a comment that it would be funny to reach climo over the next 10 days then flip to a relax after that. Was more a knock on our ens systems at range and also a reminder to look in front of us and not into deep fantasy. By all means, bring the snow threats now. Would much rather have them next week than looking beyond and just hoping. Now as you were.

Euro is a mecs btw:

The incomparable NAVGEM:

One of these years we will learn to only focus on 5 days ...maybe 7 at most and not the fantasy range

We'll see what happens I guess. Others are saying things are lining up perfectly still for the 2nd half of Feb. Really think the SPV split thing screwed our pattern change up but I'm probably imagining it.

I also think maybe the old adage 'guidance is about a week or so too fast and rushing the pattern change' may have been in err this time. Like someone else said, 3 tracking events next 8-10 days or so....you bet I will savor it and be tracking my ass off.

This is what I've been saying for a week now. We are too focused on late month and stuff will surprise us in the short and mid ranges. Well, here we are.

Already crazy but yeah.... Folks were touting the pattern on the models getting rushed and best stuff late Feb into March. But the pattern doesn't look like the models were rushing it. -NAO/-AO/-EPO allowing here next week and it isnt mid month. My gut is saying models actually were slow with the model change and we should enjoy next week.

Anyone else feel this advertised great pattern after Feb 20 is going to turn out to be meh and the real show is actually over the next week and a half to two weeks?

Is the mint pattern still on target to arrive after the 20th or did the epo change mitigate that?

No Sistene Chapel teleconnection? No March 1993?

Meanwhile the fv3 holds off on precip until after 6am extreme se pa.

Looks like quite the mess from say i78 north and west. Hoping areas s and e can tick above freezing sooner. Temps are marginal but the killer is this happens mostly at night and coldest part of the day. Could still be potentially tricky for some of those s and e of 78.

2m surface temps at 10am Thursday last 2 runs. Colder. Maybe nam resolution is starting to note the better cad:

Thread open to discuss Wednesday/Thursday: